A cracking field has come together for the running of the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas, the third and final Group 1 race set down for a massive Rosehill card this Saturday. Early favourite for the race is New Zealand visitor Puccini which should send warning signs to his competitors give that two of the past three winners of this race, have been New Zealand gallopers who have started favourite. That said, Puccini will face a quality collection of three year olds. Puccini is $4.40 with Group 1 winners Dissident ($5.00) and Shamus Award ($7.50), along with Teronado ($8.00) the only other runners under double figure odds.
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1. SHAMUS AWARD – C Williams (1)
Danny O’Brien’s galloper returned from his Cox Plate success with a solid third to Moment Of Change in the G1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) before leading all the way to claim the Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington, defeating Criterion and Thunder Fantasy. His most recent start came over the 2000m of the Australian Cup where again he led the field in the run. Against the older horses though, with not as much advantage under the WFA scale as he had back in the spring, he couldn’t hold off the late challenges and finished sixth (3.1 lengths) behind Fiorente. Back to his own age and drawn perfectly in gate one, are both big pluses.
2. DISSIDENT – J Cassidy (7)
Took him nine starts, but he finally registered his second career in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) second up from a spell, where he camped on the speed and held of the late challenge of Atlante. He has since followed that win up with another, the G1 Randwick Guineas where again he was ridden positively by Cassidy out of the gate, sitting second in the run before fighting hard when challenged by El Roca, prevailing by a narrow margin. Both horse and jockey are going very well at the moment and no reason why that would not continue here.
3. CRITERION – J Bowman (14)
David Payne’s galloper has gone very close in some big races in the ten stars since he won the Todman Stakes as a 2yo. Each of his three runs back this time in have been good, starting off with a fourth in the G3 Hayes Stakes behind Hucklebuck before an even better effort when closing hard from the tail of the field and finishing second to Shamus Award in the G1 Australian Guineas. He comes into this race after having finished eighth in the G1 Randwick Guineas where he just held his position in a race dominated by those up front. He has a good record on this track and last start indicated he is now looking for the 2000m, he should be steaming home.
4. PUCCINI – M Walker (2)
New Zealander runner who comes into this race having won three on the trot including, at his most recent start, a comprehensive two length victory in the G1 NZ Derby (2400m). The colt by Encosta De Lago has been a rapid improver over the past six months and given the results of some other Kiwi runners in quality races recently, he has rightly be treated cautiously by the bookmakers who opened him up at $4.40 and the early favourite. This will be his first run in four weeks and takes on some very good gallopers here. He’ll have to be very good to justify that price.
5. SAVVY NATURE – J McDonald (2)
Produced an excellent finishing effort first up to claim third in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) before like most, just holding his position in the run home in the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) last start. He’ll be another that will appreciate the mile and a quarter trip but has drawn poorly in twelve, meaning he will get back in the run and be giving some smart horses a start as they turn for home.
6. THUNDER FANTASY – D Oliver (6)
Anthony Cummings’ colt won the G2 Autumn Stakes (1400m) first up from a spell before producing a big run to finish third to Shamus Award in the Australian Guineas (1600m). He then contested the G1 Australian Cup three weeks ago, settling in a nice spot during the the run but was easily accounted for by Fiorente and co. in the run home, finishing second to last and four lengths away. Wasn’t quite up to taking on the seasoned performers last start but his previous two starts, both in his own age, were very good. Drawn well and has Oliver onboard.
7. ATLANTE – G Schofield (9) 56.5kgs
Murray Baker’s Fastnet Rock colt made his Australian debut in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) at the beginning of the month. He never looked comfortable on the slow conditions but continued to make ground along the fence and managed to run Dissident to a head on the line. He then line up in the G1 Randwick Guineas where he led the field during the run but was the only one from the leading group not to have figured in the finish. He ran sixth, 3.4 lengths behind Dissident. Didn’t seem to have any excuses last start and wanted to see a little more but, his overall record is strong and probably earns him some forgiveness.
8. SURGE AHEAD – B Avdulla (10)
Indicated he was looking for further when finishing sixth (1.9 lengths) behind Shamus Award in the G1 Australian Guineas (1600m) and when he was stepped up to the 2040m of the Alister Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight later, punters sent him out the 3/1f. The son of Danehill Dancer took up a handy position from a wide gate but couldn’t hold off Pheidon in the end, running third by 2.1 lengths. He’ll roll forward again and sit in or handy to, the lead but, at this level at this stage of his career, will find a couple too good for him.
9. TERONADO – C Newitt (3)
It has been hard to miss any of this gelding’s recent start. He came from last to finish fifth (1 ¾ lengths) behind Shamus Award – who dictated the race form the front – in the G1 Australian Guineas before being the only horse in the G1 Randwick Guineas to make significant ground, running fourth (1.7 lengths) behind Dissident and El Roca. Would have to think the 2000m is now ideal and over the trip from gate three, maybe he won’t have to get as far back in the run either. Rates a big chance.
10. HOOKED – B Shinn (8)
The Casino Prince colt returned to racing after a promising spring campaign in the Listed Eskimo Prince but, as he did at his following start in the G2 Hobartville Stakes, didn’t seem to enjoy the slow conditions and finished well back the field. He started at 80/1 in the Randwick Guineas a fortnight ago and from an inside gate, got a lovely run behind the pace on the fence. He held that spot in the run home and finished fifth, 2.6 lengths behind Dissident. Every chance last start and would need to show some significant improvement to be winning here.
11. ORDER OF THE SUN – T Berry (5)
Won a BM 74 (1600m) for 3yo’s at Randwick first up off a four month spell before taking a huge step up in grade and lining up in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m). The Gai Waterhouse runner led but it was no surprise to see him not be able to hold of the challengers late and finish second to last in the field of eight, 4 ¾ lengths behind Boban. Drawn well, expect to see him up on the speed or in front early but can see him holding of the challengers that will be coming fast over the final furlong.
12. LATE CHARGE – C Reith (11)
He was good first up in the G2 Autumn Stakes, finishing from well back in the field to run third to Thunder Fantasy before having no luck from a wide draw in the Australian Guineas, racing three wide with no cover throughout. He stuck on well to give the torrid run finishing ninth (2 ¾ lengths) from Shamus Reward. His most recent start came only a week ago at Sandown where, under 60kgs, he only held his ground in running fifth (2.6 lengths) to Written. Last week was to prep him for here and his two previous runs this prep have been good enough to include him among the place chances.
13. TUPAC AMARU – K McEvoy (15)
Returned off a fifteen week spell by running home steadily in BM 72 (1400m), finishing third (3 ¾ lengths) before lining up as a 100/1 shot in the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m). The Darley runner, who ran fifth in last year’s VRC Derby, got back to near last and was only warming up when the race was all but over, finishing eleventh (4.9 lengths) behind Dissident. The step up to 2000m helps but in this class, he’ll still find a few too sharp and be looking for longer still.
14. CADILLAC MOUNTAIN – C Schofield (16)
Well bred promising type from Peter Moody’s yard who won well first up in a BM 70 (1500m) at Sandown before taking the step up to better grade and meeting the challenge well, running home in good style to finish second to Pheidon in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m). Certainly would not have gone backwards since that run but faces a tougher race here again and will be jumping from the second to wides gate. This race might be beyond him, but showing plenty of promise and one worth noting for the future.
15. SHOW THE WORLD – N Rawiller (17)
Kiwi galloper who had won two from four in New Zealand, including the G2 Championship Stakes (2100m), before crossing the Tasman and lining up in the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m). He settled back in the field and never threatened in the run home, finishing twelfth in the field of fourteen, 6 ¾ lengths form Dissident. That was his first run since New Year’s Day and note that Rawiller, who rode him in the Randwick Guineas, sticks with him but the task of winning this from gate 17 will be too much of a challenge.
16. MR ONE ELEVEN – J Ford (4)
Won two of his last three but given that they’ve come at Moruya and Hawkesbury, he’ll start a triple figure price here. It is hard to see him figuring.
17. EYRE SQUARE – J Collett (13)
He won a Kembla Grange Maiden (1200m) first up from a spell before last week, running fourth of nine in a Class 2 (1500m) at the same track. Lining up for only his fourth start and there are much easier races available for him to compete in than this.
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Dissident will stick with a winning formula and roll forward but from gate seven, if Cassidy needs to, he should be able to take a sit. Dissident found plenty when challenged by El Roca last start and there was a good gap between that pair and the rest of the field. Dissident hasn’t been beyond a mile which is a query but can’t be ignored in his current form. Criterion has been calling out for the 2000m and getting to it fourth up looks ideal. The last time he competed over this trip, he motored late to claim second behind Complacent in the G1 Champion Stakes. Teronado’s run in the Randwick Guineas was very good, he was making ground when many were only able to hold there position. This is also his first look at 2000m but off of his last start, the chances of him running it out are strong. Just baulking at taking the $4.40 about Puccini who will be having his first start four weeks, Jimmy Choux did win it off a three week break when like Puccini, was coming off a strong NZ Derby win.