Even though the day is billed as “Derby Day”, it’s fair to say this race will be the highlight of the day for most as it features world’s best sprinter – Black Caviar. Unbeaten in twenty-four starts, she’ll be lining up for Group 1 win number 15! She’s un-backable odds for most of us at $1.08 but everyone will be cheering her home.
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1. HAY LIST – G Schofield (9)
A 7yo gelding by Statue of Liberty that has been the bridesmaid to Black Caviar on four previous occasions including this race in 2011. He resumed from an eleven month break four weeks back in the G2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) at Warwick Farm. From the inside draw he bounced to the lead but had no answer over the final furlong for Snitzerland, who won in track record time. Obviously will benefit from that run but drawn awkwardly here.
Odds: $34.00
2. BEL SPRINTER – J Bowman (2)
Took his first up record to five from five with a devastating win in the G1 The Galaxy (1100m) two weeks back at Rosehill. He was slowly away on that occasion and raced at the tail of the field (not generally his pattern) before unleashing a great sprint at the 300m to record a 3 ¼ length win over Snitzerland. Steps up to WFA conditions under which he has won one (G3 McEwan Stakes) from four.
Odds: $11.00
3. RAIN AFFAIR – C Brown (5)
Came into this race last year with a record of eleven wins from thirteen starts and was quoted a 7/4 chance. He finished a head second behind Master of Design. His form since then though, hasn’t been what punters expected from the Commands gelding and he finished at of the places as favourite, in both the G3 Concorde Stakes and G2 Premiere Stakes during the Spring. He returned with a better effort when fourth (beaten 3 lengths) in the G1 Canterbury Classic behind Pierro but think it’ll have to be a Slow or Heavy track for him to sneak a place.
Odds: $19.00
4. DECISION TIME – J McDonald (4)
Both runs back from a sixteen month spell have been first rate by this Clarry Conners trained galloper. He hit the line well when resuming in the G2 Challenge Stakes when second behind Snitzerland and again, doing his best work last when third in the G1 The Galaxy behind Bel Sprinter. Honest competitor who’ll get his chance from a good draw.
Odds: $101.00
5. ATOMIC FORCE – J Parr (6)
Won the G1 The Galaxy in 2011 on a heavy track and think we’ll need to see those conditions for him to produce his best judging by his two runs back this time in. He finished tenth (beaten 5.7 lengths) behind Snitzerland resuming in the G2 Challenge Stakes and settled at the tail in the G1 The Galaxy before finishing eight lengths behind Bel Sprinter.
Odds: $251.00
6. TITLE – M Rodd (3)
Not much to be excited about in his two runs back from a spell that consist of tenth in a BM 95 and a sixth (beaten 6.6 lengths) in the G1 The Galaxy. Suspect he’ll be ridden closer to the speed today from gate three and his third up runs are amongst some of his best but, the quality of this field and WFA conditions will find him out.
Odds: $251.00
7. HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME – B Avdulla (7)
Resumed from a spell with a pleasing third in the G2 Challenge Stakes behind Snitzerland and was considered one of the better chances (8/1) when next stepping out in the G1 The Galaxy. Draw barrier three in The Galaxy and settled behind the pace but unfortunately, didn’t have any luck getting a run and finished second to last, but never tested. First look at Randwick and suspect it’ll suit his racing style. One of the place chances for mine.
Odds: $126.00
8 ONTHELOOKOUT – C Spry (11)
Was surprised to see this 7yo amongst the final acceptors, given he has never competed at this level in his forty-two start career. Strange time to start? He’s form has been solid this prep and includes a third behind Skytrain and Streama when resuming in the G3 Southern Cross but this is a different kettle of fish to what he’s accustomed to and will find this too hard.
Odds: $501.00
9. BLACK CAVIAR – L Nolen (1)
During the week, Trainer Peter Moody said her track work at Caulfield was that good – it was ‘scary’! Given that she won the G1 William Reid under a hold at her lastest start, which followed a track record breaking effort in the G1 Lightning, I can’t wait to see what she produces here.
Odds: $1.12
10. SEA SIREN – J Cassidy (10)
Resumed after finishing out of the placings in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in December, with a eighth (beaten 8.6 lengths) in the G1 The Galaxy a fortnight ago. She was ridden aggressively early from her inside gate to ensure a prominent position in The Galaxy but folded quicker than I would’ve hoped for. Has to turn that around and from the second to widest gate.
Odds: $21.00
11. EPAULETTE – K McEvoy (8)
Three year form the Darley establishment whose form in his eight starts to date has been rock solid and includes victory in the G1 Golden Rose (1400m) and a third in the G1 Caulfield Guineas behind All Too Hard and Pierro. Had had two barrier trials for this return, the most recent a solid length win but has picked a slick race to resume in.
Odds: $51.00
OVERVIEW
Think Rain Affair will zip across from his draw with Sea Siren. Nolen will look to get off the fence at the first opportunity and camp behind or on the outside of these two before clicking her up and winning by – my guess is by 3 – 3 ½. Bel Sprinter has the draw to follow her throughout the race and would put him as one of the place-getters. The final spot – and we’ll go for some value so that any dividend is worth it – Decision Time and Howmuchdoyouloveme but just sit back and enjoy another Black Caviar experience.
