A fantastic edition of the Canterbury Stakes this year with champion mare More Joyous aiming to win the race for the third year straight. She’s meets a field of greater depth than her previous victories but with stable-mate Pierro and Peter Moody’s galloper Moment of Change, they dominate the early market at $2.70, $2.60 and $5.00 respectively.
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1. HAPPY TRAILS – G Boss (1)
He rounded out last campaign with a thoroughly deserved victory in the G1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) on the last day of the VRC Carnival. He’s first up here today and did win the G3 Spring Stakes (Southern Speed third) when commencing last campaign in Adelaide. Trainer Paul Beshara has given the Good Journey 5yo two barrier trials in preparation for his return. He is honest as they come and will be finishing hard.
Odds: $41.00
2. RAIN AFFAIR – C Brown (10)
Smart sprinter from the Warwick Farm stables of Jo Pride who registered wins at his first eleven start, including the G2 Expressway Stakes and G2 Apollo Stakes and narrow seconds in both the G1 TJ Smith and All Aged Stakes. However, his two outings in the Spring – G3 Concorde Stakes and G2 Premiere Stakes, where he started 2/1 on and 7/4 favourites respectively, resulted in a fourth and eighth placing. He was immediately spelled and has been prepared for his return with two winning barrier trails at Warwick Farm over the past month. If his over his Spring problems, he’ll give this an almighty shake.
Odds: $15.00
3. MOMENT OF CHANGE – L Nolen (9)
Won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield to finish of his Spring Campaign and returned to racing in the G1 Lightning Stakes where he beat all bar his stable-mate and champion mare, Black Caviar. That effort saw him installed as 9/4 favourite for the Newmarket Handicap and the son of Barely A Moment jumped to the front and led all bar the last 10m, where he was grabbed by Shamexpress, whom he 6kgs to. Only blemish on his record over the past twelve months, was in the G1 Randwick Guineas over a mile. He goes in as the leading chance.
Odds: $4.60
4. SOLZHENITSYN – D Browne (6)
Queensland’s premier trainer produced this 6yo in fine order of the Spring and it resulted in the son of St. Petersburg winning the G1 Toorak Handicap and filling placings in both the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes and G2 Crystal Mile, in a five start preparation. He resumes here from seventeen week spell and whilst he won first up last prep, he runs into some very smart sprinters here and may find a few too slick.
Odds: $51.00
5. FONTELINA – P Robl (8)
Trainer Anthony Cummings produced this son of Testa Rossa to win the G2 Yellowglen Stakes first up over the Spring Carnival. Cummings tried to repeat that effort when Fontelina stepped out fresh in the G1 Newmarket Handicap a fortnight ago unfortunately for connections though, not with the same result. He held his ground in the run home to finish 5.7 lengths behind Shamexpress. Second up last time was disappointing and weight conditions of this race, not to his advantage.
Odds: $101.00
6. AERONAUTICAL – C Williams (3)
Showed plenty of promise as a young horse and claimed the Listed The Rosebud in fantastic fashion however, never really delivered on that potential until last start. Surprisingly, after a fair effort to finish third in a BM 95 event at Rosehill, his trainer Lionel Cohen took him to Melbourne for a crack at the G1 Newmarket Handicap. Sent out a 80/1 chance, the Encosta de Lago gelding produced a career best performance and went within a head of victory, finishing third behind Shamexpress and Moment of Change. A repeat performance sees him go very close here and he does like Rosehill.
Odds: $26.00
7. MORE JOYOUS – N Rawiller (4)
The “other” champion mare returns to racing and his looking to stretch her winning streak in Sydney to six and, judging by her two recent trials, of which she has won both in good style, she’s a definite chance of succeeding. She won this race last year, also when first up, defeating Monton and Mental Bender by 1 ¼ lengths and whilst the field this year has greater depth, it’s a brave move to tip against her when she’s won eleven from fourteen at the track and six from eight first up. She’s drawn perfectly in four.
Odds: $2.70
8. SECRET ADMIRER – J McDonald (5)
Since winning the G1 Epsom Handicap in October 2011, the daughter of Dubawi has frustrated her connections and backers alike, running 10 placings (seven of them in Group 1 races) in fifteen starts since. We haven’t seen here since she was a head away in third spot behind Happy Trails and Fawkner in the G1 Emirates Stakes in November but, after her two recent barrier trial hit-outs and her record fresh, she capable of filling a pace with the right run.
Odds: $26.00
9. MID SUMMER MUSIC – J Parr (2)
Returned to racing for the first time since claiming the Listed Kevin Heffernan at Sandown in November, with a fourth (beaten 2.6 lengths) behind Skyerush in the G3 Liverpool City Cup (1300m) at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago. Sat outside the leader and eventual winner last start but first up over 1300m with 59kgs, just felt the pinch over the final stages. Will be better for that hit-out and her record over this trip reads four wins and two seconds from seven starts but meets some very smart ones here.
Odds: $41.00
10. PIERRO – J Cassidy (7)
The 2012 Golden Slipper winning son of Lonhro is yet to run a bad race in his eleven start career and had to produce his best when first up in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) on a heavy track, to hold off the late challenge of Rebel Dane. His trainer, Gai Waterhouse, has given him three weeks to recover from that run. The only time he took on older horses previously was in last year’s Cox Plate where he ran a fantastic third behind Ocean Park and All Too Hard however, he carried 49.5kgs then and under the weight conditions of today’s event, he’s been allocated 56kg. That means, against horses like More Joyous and Moment of Change, he receives only 1kg.
Odds: $2.60
OVERVIEW
Rain Affair will shoot across from his wide gate with Pierro and Moment of Change trailing him across and Mid Summer Music pushing forward from gate 2. Pace of the race will be genuine and from gate four, think More Joyous will be sitting just behind these runners, one of the fence and to get the vital last shot at them. I’ll stick with her. Moment of Change comes into this race having had two solid hit-out. Expect him to test the fitness of More Joyous who is first up and Pierro – who has had a hard first up run on a heavy track. He’s already firmed from $5.00 – $4.60.
