The Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington on Saturday shapes up to be a fascinating contest between gun four year old I Wish I Win, the two star three year olds and the proven big time sprinters.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Newmarket Handicap.
2023 Newmarket Handicap Speed Map
Think Front Page and Snapper look the two main speed influences so I think the tempo will be genuine. In Secret won’t be far away, likewise Mazu and The Astrologist. Star Patrol has Visors on and can be more forwardly placed.
2023 Newmarket Handicap Runner Preview:
1. Private Eye: Joe Pride isn’t a trainer lacking confidence when it comes to talking up his horses and he is talking this guy up. Those carrying 57kg+ in recent years have a pretty good record. But, I feel his Grand Final is the TJ Smith and top end, there is good depth to this line up.
2. Mazu: He is one of a few that are ready to take the mantle from Nature Strip as #WBS. He was so good without winning in the Spring and the stable have deliberately set him for this, then the TJ, then spell and have a crack at The Everest. His trial work has been excellent, he commands respect.
3. I Wish I Win: Either he’s a moral or a complete risk. I’m 50/50. The Lightning run was incredible, his late splits were incredible…but, he did sit back in what was essentially a barrier trial, so he was entitled to run on, and when you break down his form, compare his CV to others, he is so poorly weighted IMO. He can win, but without me.
4. Roch N Horse: Scratched from the Lightning and ran a week later in the Oakleigh Plate. It was a pass mark, but she has been set for this race and is one of the best straight track runners in Australia, plus did win the race last year. Knockout chance.
5. Baller: He’s a good straight track host. Resumed in the Lightning and given the race shape, WFA, he had no chance, so forgive and forget the run behind Coolangatta. Much better suited in a handicap, has the run under the belt…his best can see him finish first four.
6. Bella Nipotina: Ripping mare who did an outstanding job in the Lightning, finding the line and sticking on very well behind Coolangatta. I’d love to see a drop of rain for her, but even on a firm deck, she’s a must for multiples given how genuine she is.
7. September Run: Her better days are likely behind her, but that said, she is a very good sprinting mare. Trucked in the run fresh in the Lightning and loomed to win but couldn’t quite finish it off, eventually settling for a close up fourth. Loves the straight course, another that should be included in exotics.
8. The Astrologist: He ran so well in the race last year and was a total forgive in the Oakleigh Plate fresh. But with eyes on Dubai and then The Quokka at Ascot, I am saying this, a big Group l, is a prep run.
9. Lofty Strike: Lofty Strike only runs well. He has been dynamic in both runs back from a spell. Resumed with a brilliant win in the Rubiton before going to the Oakleigh Plate where he got a mile out of his ground but wound up with purpose late in the piece when second to Uncommon James. Proven down the straight and getting to 1200m, look for him to sit back and launch at the end.
10. Chain Of Lightning: Can make a case to say she should have won the Rubiton fresh but she was just fair in the Oakleigh Plate and for mine, needs to improve too much to figure in the finish.
11. Front Page: Bomb fresh horse that can produce sustained speed from the front, but I’d be stunned if he could measure up.
12. Snapper: The tick for him is that he loves the straight…outside that, I can’t really find a positive. He’s going to struggle.
13. Star Patrol: The hype horse. Electric win in the Adams before being close up in the Oakleigh Plate, beaten just under two lengths by Uncommon James. He saves his best for the straight track and from all reports went very well in a piece of work on Monday. He is dangerous for sure and a win wouldn’t shock.
14. Swats That: She hasn’t won since Moses parted the sea. Surely not.
15. In Secret: In Secret looks to have been set for the race and given how good she is, she’s really well in at the weights. She ran in the Surround (1400m) a fortnight back and to the eye, she had every chance, but she did have to cut back inside and the fence was clearly no good. That, and I also think 1400m is a bridge too far, so back to 1200m and back down the straight, she appeals big time to bounce back.
16. Buenos Noches: Buenos Noches is one of the better each way gambles of the weekend. He’s a very good colt for Matty Smith who has been set for the race and for mine, is flying. Handicap dodging ride in the Lightning but loved the way he found the line late behind Coolangatta. Returned to Sydney and his trial win at Warwick Farm was electric. Right down in the weights, 1200m, strong late…I just can’t see how he doesn’t run well.
2023 Newmarket Handicap $100 Betting Strategy:
Pretty keen each way on Buenos Noches. Happy to have $20 Win/$80 Place.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $4250
Group l Strategy Return: $2969.50
2023 Newmarket Handicap Odds
