The 2020 Spring Carnival will be one of the most unique of the modern era due to the current climate of the world that’s going through Covid 19. But touch wood, racing goes ahead and the Spring Carnival goes off without a hitch.
The race that stops a nation and is starting to stop the world is the Melbourne Cup and here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners for the iconic 3200m contest.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Melbourne Cup
HORSE TO BEAT:
Russian Camelot
Odds 💰: $10 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Camelot x Lady Babooshka
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 5: 3-1-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/2500m
Career Best Win: SA Derby, May 9 2020, Morphettville, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 1-1-0
Wet Track Stats: 3: 2-0-0
Short Summary: The flagbearer for Australia against a potentially strong International brigade.
Why He Can Win?
The hype around him is the strongest it has been for a horse since Winx. Lightly raced and keep in mind is a Northern Hemisphere bred, so he’s technically still three years old. What he did in the SA Derby was simply stunning and did run past what I think is a Group l winner in waiting Dalasan. Just got so much upside and is a deserving early favourite.
Why He Can’t Win?
Will he run 3200m? Gives every impression he’ll get it but you don’t know until you try. Outside Dalasan, the SA Derby was very thin depth wise and the overall form around him is a bit suspect. The signs are there that he’ll come right on from last prep but until it’s been done on the track, can’t be said definitively that he’ll improve.
THE X FACTOR:
Master Of Wine
Odds 💰: $17 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Maxios x Magma
Trainer: Team Hawkes
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 15: 5-5-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/2400m
Career Best Win: Sky High Stakes, March 14 2020, Rosehill, Heavy Surface
Dry Track Stats: 9: 3-3-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 2-2-1
Short Summary: The #1 seed from Sydney for the Cups.
Why He Can Win?
It’s all upside, upside, upside with this guy. Went through his grades in the Autumn before contesting the Queen Elizabeth where he was amazing in defeat behind Addeybb, a run which proved he’s well and truly a rising star. Gives the impression he’ll eat up a staying trip.
Why He Can’t Win?
While he gives the impression he will eat up a staying trip, still got to prove it against the big boys and girls. Only time has raced at a proper staying trip was 2400m during last Spring when beating up an average lot in the Tatts Cup. His best efforts have been in Sydney, so will he handle Melbourne again, and the pressure of a Melbourne Cup.
ONE FROM LEFT FIELD:
Finche
Odds 💰: $31 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Frankel x Binche
Trainer: Chris Waller
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 15: 4-1-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2500m
Career Best Win: Kingstown Town Stakes, September 21 2019, Randwick, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 2-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 7: 2-0-1
Short Summary: I dare say the leading pick for Chris Waller and has been excellent the past two editions.
Why He Can Win?
He’s a beauty and has been very good in the past two runnings of the Melbourne Cup when fourth in 2018 and beaten 1.4L last year by Vow And Declare. Off his recent trial, he looks to have come back in super order and is spot on for the Spring.
Why He Can’t Win?
Only two horses in the last 30 years have won the Melbourne Cup after previously not winning, Empire Rose in 88 and Fiorente in 2013, and my rule is if you have previously failed in the race, you’re penned for future attempts. And this year, potentially, will be a very strong Melbourne Cup.
ONE AT STUPID ODDS:
Skelm
Odds 💰: $151 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Animal Kingdom x Lajoie
Trainer: Terry Kelly
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 27: 4-4-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1800m/2219m
Career Best Win: Handicap, January 4 2020, Caulfield, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 23: 4-4-4
Wet Track Stats: 4: 0-0-0
Short Summary: Worth a very small ticket at $151+.
Why He Can Win?
Overall, wasn’t a strong race, but he closed off well in the Andrew Ramsden behind Oceanex with Adelaide Cup winner King Of Leogrance in second. Carried 58.5kg too, so it was a good effort from the back from a horse who hasn’t really been tested at that kind of level. A win in either the Bart Cummings or Lexus on Derby Day would seal a spot for him.
Why He Can’t Win?
He’s rated 78 and would need to produce a career best prep to get even close to qualifying. Highly unlikely he measures up even in the lead ups, but he’s a talented animal that will win races in the not too distant future.
