Any race has a large number of variables that can affect the outcome. The beauty of the game is that individuals can view the same set of statistics and come up with a different conclusion.

Here are just some, not all, of the factors that might be considered before making a selection for the Melbourne Cup.

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Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Melbourne Cup

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A useful starting point

It is best not to overcomplicate it. What you are looking for, ideally, in the first instance, is a horse that can stay well and who will carry a light weight. In the right hands, that would be a formidable combination, so that’s as good a place to start as any.

Proven over 3200m or further

These horses have all won over the Melbourne Cup distance or longer:

  • Trustyourinstinct
  • Knight’s Choice
  • Vauban
  • Goodie Two Shoes
  • Onesmoothoperator
  • Soul Of Spain
  • Kizlyar

Knight’s Choice is a Melbourne Cup winner, while Goodie Two Shoes finished second in the race last year.

Who is best in at the weights?

The Joseph O’Brien-trained Kizlyar, who is unwanted in the betting at $41, has won up to 4013m. He is the lightest-weighted runner in this group, carrying 53.5kg.

Group 1 winners in the last two years

  • Knight’s Choice — 2024 Melbourne Cup.
  • Strictly Business — VRC Oaks.

Winners at Flemington

  • Knight’s Choice
  • Juja Kimbo
  • Future History
  • Strictly Business
  • Mr Monaco
  • Zakouma
  • Shockletz

Regular jockeys on board

To qualify, the jockey must have ridden the horse in at least three of its last four starts, or in its last two starts.

Horse Jockey
Enfjaar Ray Dawson
Juja Kimbo Sam Clipperton
So You Are Rachel King
Mr Monaco Jabez Johnston
Zakouma Willie Pike
Shockletz Harry Coffey

A recent warm-up run

These horses have had a run, or runs, in the five weeks leading into the Cup, dating back to September 29:

  • Knight’s Choice
  • Middle Earth
  • Vauban
  • Enfjaar
  • Royal Supremacy
  • Wine Dark Sea
  • Asterix
  • Juja Kimbo
  • Onesmoothoperator
  • Soul Of Spain
  • Zahrann
  • So You Are
  • Future History
  • Kizlyar
  • Point Of Law
  • Strictly Business
  • Zakouma
  • Shockletz

Racing first-up

Hopewell Rock will be racing first-up.

Seeing Flemington for the first time

  • Sons And Lovers
  • Trustyourinstinct
  • Enfjaar
  • Wine Dark Sea
  • Hopewell Rock
  • Soul Of Spain
  • James J Braddock
  • Point Of Law

Racing in Australia for the first time

  • Sons And Lovers
  • Trustyourinstinct
  • Hopewell Rock
  • James J Braddock

Last-start winners

  • Juja Kimbo
  • So You Are
  • Point Of Law

A look at the age groups

Age group Horses
9-year-olds Vauban, Onesmoothoperator, Future History.
8-year-olds Asterix, Goodie Two Shoes.
7-year-olds Trustyourinstinct, Knight’s Choice, Middle Earth, Enfjaar.
6-year-olds Sons And Lovers, Royal Supremacy, Juja Kimbo, Soul Of Spain, Mr Monaco, Zakouma.
5-year-olds Wine Dark Sea, Hopewell Rock, Zahrann, So You Are, Kizlyar, Shockletz.
4-year-olds James J Braddock, Point Of Law, Strictly Business.

Recent winning ages

A five-year-old won the Cup in 2024 and 2025. A seven-year-old won in 2023, while six-year-olds were triumphant in both 2021 and 2022.

Lastly, a look at the betting

It is always worth a glance to familiarise yourself with what the market is doing. If the betting backs up your choice, all is well and good. If it doesn’t, do not let it put you off.

There is nothing quite as upsetting as losing your money because you followed someone else’s lead, when you had it right in the first place.

 
*Existing customers only. 2nd Racing bet. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.
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