Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Tuesday’s (2/7/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 3.30pm Monday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $45410
Betting Strategy Return: $46905
Futures Outlay: $2665
Futures Return: $2391
$70 Win Lavish Rose R2 @ $4.4 (BetEasy)
$10 Win/$20 Place Sculptures R3 (Tote)
Was expecting a big gap in the market between Discombe and Lavish Rose and that’s how it’s panned out. I’m keen to take the $4.40 about Lavish Rose. They clashed in a Wyong maiden last time with the race won by Deliya. Discombe ran third and IMO, he had every chance on speed. 12/10 ride from Clark but he plodded for third while Lavish Rose produced the best late splits of the race off a moderate tempo. Looks to be a bit of pressure near the front and hoping Lavish Rose can sit off that, get clear air on the turn and finish over the top. Was hoping for double figures for Sculptures so $6 at the time of writing is a tad short. Taking the tote but I think the veteran is flying. He was a few weeks between runs last start at Wyong but finished off nicely late and his late splits were good. Saves his best for Gosford, Cejay remains on, he looks a great bet. Just hoping he gets to better odds.
$30 Win/$70 Place Diamonds For Alice R6 @ $15/$4.6 (Sportsbet)
Was hoping they’d miss her and they have. I reckon Peter Clancy has this mare flying. Contested a decent open sprint at Wagga last time out and I don’t think she would have won, but she definitely runs top four. Just no luck at all in the straight when Josh Richards wanted to take the gaps and it was an ugly watch if you were on. Was watching the Sky Central coverage leading into the race and Mounting Yard expert Chynna Marston said it was the best this mare looked for the entire prep and that assessment was right because the mare ran well. Back to 66 grade, hoping Heywood can hold the box seat behind likely leader Pleasant and she’s a winner at that track, and as we know, near the speed/rail is the A1 spot at Corowa. Just looks the wrong odds.
$100 Win Muwarrad R3 @ $3.8 (Sportsbet)
Ballarat Synthetic Overview:
The best bets have been going like busteds lately so hoping this bloke turns the tide. There are a few runners here with plenty of convictions next to their name whereas this two year old has only had the one start and it was a beauty, running third to Comte over 1400m at this track and I think you can make a case he goes close to winning with clear air from the top of the straight. He was building nicely until around the 400m when got chopped out of a run before Ben Allen eased wider and took a couple of strides to gather momentum, but he was really good late in running third. His 400-200m split of 12.46 was 5th fastest in the race, but bear in mind he was held up for most of it and had no momentum. His last 200m split of 12.72 was the fastest in the race by a length, so that tells me that he’ll eat up further, Jye McNeil takes the ride and in what looks a thin race, the $3.80 looks more than acceptable.