Some of the best mares in Australia will do battle for Group l glory this Saturday at Flemington in the Empire Rose Stakes (1600m), where Kiwi mare La Crique dominates early betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Empire Rose Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Empire Rose Stakes
2022 Empire Rose Stakes Speed Map
She’s Licketysplit, with 49.5kg on her back, you’d have to think goes forward. Nimalee and La Crique will be handy. The unknowns are the Waller pair of Hinged and Fangirl. If they run here, I think they’ll settle not far away from good gates. Mirra Vision will roll forward from the wide gate.
2022 Empire Rose Stakes Runner Preview
1. Icebath: I had enough of her after the Epsom, and there she was again, teasing with a strong finale in The Invitation last Saturday. But, that is the story of her life. But, she gets a good gate and Craig Williams. Wouldn’t shock me if she won, but it will be without me backing her to win.
2. Nimalee: Nimalee is a hard fit/in form mare for Matty Smith that is on the seven day back up after racing in The Invitation last Saturday where she did a bit of work to land on speed and fought on quite bravely behind Promise Of Success. Proven big time performer at the mile and does have the #SF.
3. Kissonallforcheeks: Very rare to say a horse has gone backwards since joining Nick Ryan but you can make a case this mare hasn’t done a great deal. Just a win in the Let’s Elope and really, her runs before and after have been plain. 1600m is a query with her, happy to pass.
4. Kiku: Surprised most with a first up win in the Theo Marks and wasn’t too bad from the back in the Epsom. Has the Waller polish and Waller in a Grand Final, so she commands some level of respect. Doubt she wins though.
5. Excelida: Serious threat if this track is on the firm side. Strong winner two back here in the Rose Of Kingston before going to the Tristarc where the track was a bit on the shifty side, and it just didn’t suit her. Back at Flemington on top of the ground, I think she’ll run a ripping race.
6. Mirra Vision: Jury is out on how well she has come back, she’s drawn wide, a rider down in confidence…just can’t see her threatening.
7. Palaisipan: Genuine mare for Chris Munce who was good in inferior ground at Caulfield in the Tristarc. But she has to be a huge query at the mile. Pass.
8. Chaillot: If you break down her runs, she hasn’t been too bad, both times on heavy ground, something she hates. She gets a dry deck now, loves Flemington…I’m taking her on, but she could easily sprout wings and figure in the finish.
9. Belle Plaisir: If you were on her in the in The Invitation, apologies for bringing it up. Should have won, but just had no luck at a vital stage. Narrow miss prior on Thousand Guineas Day, she’s flying this girl. But this might be a bridge too far.
10. Hinged: As good as she is, the record says she’s one win from 11 starts for Chris Waller, and in another stride, she doesn’t win that race, the Surround. She’s a very good mare and is thereabouts, usually taking on the best. But, she just doesn’t win often enough. That said, she is back to her own age, she’ll roll forward you’d assume and is a class runner.
11. Fangirl: This time last year she was backed as if unbeatable in the Carbine Club and duly saluted. Probably hasn’t quite gone on with it since and was on the plain side in the Epsom, but the big tick for her I think is firmer footing. She got that fresh in the Winx and ran second to Anamoe. If she brings that here, she goes close, even allowing for the gate.
12. Yearning: Gee I think Yearning is going to run a big race. Team Hawkes trained mare that has had two runs back from a spell, both coming over 1400m here. Close up third to Kissonallforcheeks in the let’s Elope before going to the Rose Of Kingston where she just found staying at 1400m a negative. Now gets to her ideal trip and thought she moved quite nicely in a tick over jumpout here last week.
13. Daisies: Track was too wet for her on Thousand Guineas Day so firmer footing is ideal. Stocks wins last time was strong, she maps to do no work in the run…just not sure she’s good enough to measure up.
14. La Crique: Just how good is La Crique? They could have easily gone towards the Golden Eagle with this Kiwi mare but connections want to prove herself at Group l level in Australia and she finds such an ideal race on paper. These Australian Mares, they take their turns winning. Is it time for a NZ mare to have her turn? She’s a last start Group l winner in NZ and does get J Mac. The knocks are the price, it’s too short IMO and I question her form overall. It looks awful over there, but the Kiwis have had a fab Melbourne Spring so I can’t totally pen her.
15. Elusive Express: To me, she is a mare that will be suited next Saturday in the Matriarch. This will be three runs at the mile now, and she just wants further, so keep an eye on her from a Matriarch perspective.
16. She’s Licketysplit: Three year olds have a fab record in this race so she’s in the mix. Loomed to win the Thousand Guineas but just couldn’t quite go on with it behind Madame Pommery. Right down in the weights, she has to be respected.
17. My Whisper (First Emergency): I’d say a lucky winner of the Tesio last Saturday given how unlucky Roots was. Can’t see her threatening this lot.
18. Atishu (Second Emergency): Was good against the race shape in the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick and assume she’ll run there on Cup Day.
19. Pride Of Jenni (Third Emergency): Led and fought on pretty well in the Tristarc behind Chain Of Lightning but a mile is a bridge too far.
20. Cliffs Art (Fourth Emergency): Cliff’s Art is flying for Matty Smith. Ran in the Tristarc where she got a mile out of her ground but was very good late in the piece behind Chain Of Lightning. Love the rise to the mile for her and if she’s within range on the turn, she can take this out. Just a shame she is unlikely to get a run.
2022 Empire Rose Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
Going to have a $100 Boxed First Four for 5.95% with the numbers 1-2-5-10-11-12-14-16.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1950
Group l Strategy Return: $1283.50
