A crack bunch of Mares line up in the first Group l of Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday, the Empire Rose Stakes (1600m), and despite 10-15mm forecast for later in the week, the track drains superbly so it won’t be affected too much.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Empire Rose Stakes.
2021 Empire Rose Stakes Speed Map
Tofane draws soft and should get run of the race. Pride Of Jenni will roll forward, likewise Harmony Rose from a wide gate. Flying Mascot was ridden with a sit last Saturday but can sit handy. Mystic Journey, on her 3YO form, would use the inside gate, but recent runs she has shown no early speed.
2021 Empire Rose Stakes Runner Preview
1. Colette: I’m a bit surprised she isn’t favourite. She has a fair bit on these re class and I think will improve out of sight from the Tristarc given she was off a set back and was being trained for a Caulfield Cup. The track won’t have genuine give she likes, but it won’t be rock hard. I think she’s the one to beat.
2. Mystic Journey: Does she deserve to be as short as she is? Her two runs back have been strong, but her problem is her racing pattern. She’s been getting way out of her ground and spotting them too much start. Can she use the inside gate and settle in the first half dozen? On what I’ve seen to date, it’s a no. She can still win, but she’s too short in betting.
3. Tofane: She’s a gun mare that brings strong form. Close up two back at this track/distance in the Makybe Diva before going to the Toorak. She had every chance and was only run down late by I’m Thunderstruck. Back to Mares grade, she appeals big time…$3.50 though? I’d want a better price.
4. Sierra Sue: If you can forgive a good horse for one poor run, which she is a good horse, then she is big odds. Irregular heart rhythm in the Toorak so a clear excuse for her there. Prior efforts were sound, including a Rupert Clarke win. On that effort, she’s in with a shout.
5. Still A Star: I’m really surprised there is such a market gap between this girl and Mystic Journey given there was around a length between them in the Rose Of Kingston. Still A Star is a winner, very genuine yet is $11 whereas Mystic Journey is $5. Can’t work that out and she has to be respected.
6. Nimalee: She’s big odds. I was keen on her in the Tristarc but she was very one paced and just ground to the line when fourth to Colette. To me, she looks like a mare that wants the mile, which she gets…I couldn’t back her to win, but she’s one to include for wider multiples.
7. Mirra Vision: She’s a ripping mare who is in career best form. A1 run in transit in the Angst and was impressive in putting them away. I doubt she will get the suck run here and this looks a bridge too far.
8. Hungry Heart: Is this a prep run for the Matriarch next Saturday? Off the Epsom run, she just looked like a horse wanting 2000m, so staying at the mile is a genuine query. But she had the brilliance and class to win this, so at $20+, I’m not penning her.
9: Anarelinha: This girl does look like she will back up and go close in the Matriarch next Saturday. Wide throughout in the Angst and worked home okay despite the work being done. Soft run this time around but to me, she looks like she will want 2000m.
10: Sirileo Miss: In great form this time in for Simon Wilde but I will say she has been beautifully placed by the stable and was rewarded with a Stakes win on Thiusand Guineas Day at Caulfield. $21 is unders I feel.
11. Harmony Rose: Another that I think will be better suited in the Matriarch. Ran third to Sirileo Miss at Caulfield and I don’t think that’s the right form for this. Lands on speed and will try hard, but I think she’ll be better placed next week.
12. Kiku: Suck run in the Angst and battled on well when third to Mirra Vision. She’s a talented mare, but she isn’t a Group l mare I don’t think.
13: Flying Mascot: Surely not. Smashed in betting last Saturday at the Valley and bolted up. She has definitely earned a crack at Group l company, but is she good enough? I’m saying no.
14. Pride Of Jenni: Backed with confidence in the Tristarc but she didn’t find much in the straight and was plain. Off that, I can’t entertain her here.
15. Steinem: Matriarch is her race. Very good in the Tristarc but to me she looks like she wants further so wait for the 2000m next Saturday.
2021 Empire Rose Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
I think Colette is the one that is slight overs in the race and with class on her side, I’m siding with her. $30 Win, $70 Place on her and hopefully she can hold her price at around $6.5-$7.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2080
Group l Strategy Return: $1646.5
