Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Wednesday’s (8/1/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4pm Tuesday.
Outlay: $1600
Return: $1661
Canterbury
$60 Win Red Edit R1 @ $2.5 (TAB)
$20 Win Plenty R2 @ $4.8 (BetEasy)
$10 E/W Alart R3 (Tote)
Canterbury Overview:
Think punters can start the day with a fat bank via Re Edit, who is having start two after debuting with an impressive on the bog at Warwick Farm back on November 28. Loved the way she knuckled down to win that day and the form reads well behind her. Trialled against the open horses at Rosehill and looked to move very nicely there, J Mac remains on and the $2.50 seems a touch of overs I thought given there isn’t much depth to the field. He’s becoming costly but Plenty gets one more chance. Who knows what would have happened had he got clear air on Friday but one thing for sure is that he should have finished much closer. Inside gate again, but hopefully can get clear air this time and we can see what’s under the hood. Quick back up for a Waller horse also is a good sign. Alart can hopefully get to double figures in the third and I think she’s worth a speck. Thought she was good first up behind Miss Invincible then the bog track was against her behind Heart Conquered, who has franked that form. Gate one with Robbie Dolan on board, hopefully on firmer footing…worth a throw at the stumps.
Caulfield
$10 E/W Monarch Court R1 @ $8.5/$2.8 (BetEasy)
$40 Win Numoor R2 (Tote)
$20 Win Yulong September R2 (Tote)
$20 Win Rossman R7 @ $3.4 (BetEasy)
Caulfield Overview:
The opener looks tricky but I like the look of Monarch Court. Jumped out alright prior to debuting at Werribee where it was an ugly watch if you were on. A few were unlucky, none more so than him. Badly held up behind tired runners and was never clear until it was all over but he hit the line strongly when clear. Hopefully gets better luck this time and $8.50 for him compared to the two favs on debut, one of which draws wide…he’ll do me. Numoor I made the best of the day. Spanked them to break the maiden at Sandown and smashed the clock relative to the day. $2.45 at the time of writing seemingly looks okay but the way the market has been with the stable lately, it could get to $3.50-$4 easily for no apparent reason. I can’t lock in a price with that stable with confidence. Yulong September scored a brilliant win on debut at Sandown before going to Morphettville where he was tardy away along with perhaps a dash of arrogance in the saddle from Yendall. Got going but far too late. Note there are a couple of runners in this race nominated for Flemington so I wouldn’t take fixed odds until after scratchings are finalised. Rossman finds a really good race to see if he’s city class or not. Had the sweet sit first up at Mornington and proved too good, with that form being franked by Arrochar. I’m hoping the first up performance was a sign of improvement left in the tank rather than him being limited.
Doomben
$10 E/W Super Kids R2 @ $8/$2.62 (Bet365)
$40 Win Neptune’s Spear R3 @ $2.4 (Bet365)
$40 Win Ignite The Light R4 @ $2.7 (Bet365)
Doomben Overview:
Note that Bet365 were the only bookie up with odds at the time of writing. Tricky meeting up north but there are three that I think can run well. Super Kids debuts for the Guy stable and his trials have looked very encouraging, so I am a bit surprised to see him so long in the market. Neptune’s Spear is heading down the Karaka Millions path and should get there via another win. Barring bad luck, he should be winning. Ignite The Light was a nightmare watch last time. Well backed but had no luck getting clear and for mine probably wins had he got clear air when initially probing. They look the three on what is a rather uninspiring program.
