Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (7/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Tuesday.
Outlay: $8400
Return: $9616
Grafton
$50 Win Rocknavar R5 @ $2.2 (Sportsbet)
$30 Win Lacey Lynx Pack R6 @ $3.4 (BetEasy)
$10 EW/W Youwaitandsee R8 (Tote)
Grafton Overview:
Just has to handle the distance increase and a steep one at that, and Rocknavar should be winning the fifth. Matty Dunn trains this filly, who was really good last time out at Ballina over 1300m when back and probably not handling the tight track but was warming to the task at the end, suggesting further the better. Jumps straight to 1700m but finds a thin maiden. I think the best version of Lacey Lynx Pack will see her win the sixth. Ran in a Rosehill Highway last time and was most disappointing but her two runs prior in strong races were good. Fradd choosing it over Maglev might also be a lead. In the last, have to have one last throw at the stumps in the shape of Youwaitandsee. He was terrible at Taree but the track was very sticky that day, he was back and just didn’t look comfortable at all. Should get firmer footing here, he’s a four time winner at the track and the gear is coming off, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does but his best is good enough to perhaps fill a minor spot.
Pakenham
$10 E/W Pindi Pride R2 @ $26 Win (Bet365), Place (Tote)
$30 Win Skelton R6 @ $4.4 (Bet365)
$50 Clarice Cliffs R7 @ $2.25 (Bet365)
Pakenham Overview:
Note that 365 was the only bookie with odds up at the time of writing. Unfashionable trainer/jock combo, hence the price, but I think Pindi Pride can run a cheeky race here at massive odds. Debuts for Paul Kramer off the back of a recent Moe jumpout where he was in behind the speed, wasn’t asked for much and looked to move well in a trial which included the well performed Moss ‘N’ Dale. $34 seemed a very silly price in a maiden with a lot of unknowns and is already into $26. Blinkers go on as well, and they weren’t on in the jumpout. I think Skelton is clearly the best horse in the sixth but it all depends where he is at fitness wise. He was down to resume recently but has been kept on ice. Showed good ability in his first prep and the recent Ballarat jumpout was more than encouraging. I think the $2.25 on offer for Clarice Cliffs looks a spoil. Very progressive mare for Greg Eurell who toyed with them first up and was arrogant in doing so on speed. There is a bit of depth to this field but she looks a city class horse in the making and should put these away.
Rockhampton
$50 Win The Stockbroker R1 @ $2.1 (TAB)
$50 Win Gypsy Toff R4 @ $2.05 (Neds)
Rockhampton Overview:
Couple of good things up north I think, starting with The Stockbroker in the first. Tom Button trains this juvenile, who debuted in November here and ran really well in defeat when second to Lepreezy, just taking a little while to get into his work but sound late. Blinkers are on, like they were in a January 22 jumpout at Yeppoon and he went lovely to the eye. Keen on him. Thought they’d slightly take her on Gypsy Toff, but they haven’t. I think the only way she’ll beat is if Cyclone Topgirl pours the pressure on and sets it up for The Tax Accountant but I’ll bank on brilliance/class getting her home. Arrogant first up win, with plenty left in reserve. Just has to hold that form to win, but first 200m or so will be crucial.
