Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (28/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Wednesday.
Outlay: $13700
Return: $14089
Kyneton
$40 Win/$60 Place Resetting Edge R4 @ $8/$2.8 (Spprtsbet)
Kyneton Overview:
Made him the best of the day when I did the form on Tuesday, and I’m surprised there is $8 around for him. On debut for the Osborne stable with Meech to steer and that combo are very good together, plus Meech has a 24% SR when riding on the track last 12 months. This son of Reset had a jumpout on the track last Monday and looked to move very well to my eye, winning that jumpout, leading all the way and doing it without really being extended. There are a couple of decent stables here with gallopers going around, and I note that this horse has the barrier blanket and stallion chain, so he might be a handful, but off the jumpout, I think he’s handy and is worth a ticket here in a relatively thin maiden I thought.
Pakenham
$80 Win Harbourbelle R1 @ $4.5 (Sportsbet)
$10 E/W Roar R6 @ $34 Win (TAB), Place (Tote)
Pakenham Overview:
Harbourbelle looks extremely hard to beat in the first. On debut for the Stokes stable with Kayla Crowther to ride and that combo are batting at near 27%, which is unbelievably good. This filly had a jumpout at Balnarring a couple of weeks ago and looked very good to my eye when on speed and going about her business under a nice hold. I’m reading this as a race where either Bionics returns a winner or a first starter wins. I think this filly is the clear pick of the first starters. He is accepted for Friday night, but if he runs here, gee I think Roar is a silly price. He debuted at Donald on a day where on speed was certainly an advantage. He was back, never really a winning factor, but closed off well late and his late splits were some of the best of the race. Been given a little freshen up, worked at the Valley on Monday morning and for mine worked far better than the well performed Mount Kilcoy. Silly odds.
