Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Sunday’s (24/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 12pm Saturday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $19630
Betting Strategy Return: $18845
Futures Outlay: $995
Futures Return: $1113
Muswellbrook
$10 Win/$35 Place Utzon R4 @ $12/$3.3 (TAB)
$55 Win Noble Boy R8 @ $1.9 (TAB)
Muswellbrook Overview:
I think the double figures on offer for Utzon is more than acceptable. She hasn’t done much in two career starts, and has let the punters down, but I think she’s just been priced on hype/looks. Disappointing last time at Morphettville, but the winner is above average and this race looks thin depth wise. Happy to have something on at the odds. Noble Boy should win. Firm track/barrier one heavily against him last but he was quite courageous in defeat. Now onto a wet track, draws to get clear air and find best ground, plus Bowman steers. Bad luck the only thing stopping this horse winning.
Ballarat
$20 Win Parlay 2,3 = $80 Cost
Mercy Street R4
Propelle R5
Kings Full R6
$10 E/W Elton’s Song R3 @ $13/$4 (Sportsbet)
Ballarat Overview:
Good chance with the Parlay. Happy to risk Columbus Circle…IMO he’s a pretender and has a boom on him based on a 100m burst of speed to win on debut. Two runs since, he’s been a bit disappointing, admittedly though the form has been good. I think the $5/thereabouts for Mercy Street is a touch of overs. This gelding resumes for Matt Cumani and last start was four lengths off Ringerdingding, and that form is easy to tie in because Columbus Circle finished behind Hawkshot two back and that horse was alongside Ringerdingding in the Australian Guineas. Even money vs $5 is too big of a gap. Propelle is a Saturday class filly with the right placement and should win the fifth. Can be hit and miss at times but when she’s right, she’s above average. Kings Full was excellent first up at Pakenham on track which heavily favoured on speed/rail, so first up with 61kg, to work home like he did, says to me he’s in for a good prep and should win the sixth. Elton’s Song returns as a gelding for Mitch Freedman and his recent Camperdown jumpout was excellent I thought. Well worth a speck at the double figures.
