Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Monday’s (24/9/2018) racing around the country. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing.
Sunday Results: $90 Profit
Last 10 Days: WLWWWLLLWW
Overall Results (Since June 7): $4881 Profit
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Bet One- Win- Bathurst Race Two Number 3 Kormaddie:
I think the $5+ is more than acceptable of a horse in career best form. Mervyn Bennett has this bloke flying at the moment. Ran over the 1460m at Queanbeyan last time where Guymer was really aggressive in finding the front, maintaining a decent margin and dashing clear on the turn to hold them at bay. Looks to lead for fun here and I think he’s a great bet.
Suggested Bet: $20 Win at $5 (BetEasy)
Bet Two- Win- Bathurst Race Five Number 11 Baaed:
Ryan/Baker…it’s fraught with danger, but this looks a genuine $1.40-$1.50 chance. He and Maid In Milan are close in the market…why I do not know. Both debuted over 1100m, Baaed on a firm Hawkesbury while Maid In Milan was on a Soft7 at Gosford. Baaed ran some 15 lengths quicker on times in a pretty solid debut, albeit the times slightly flattered by the wet track at Gosford, but even allowing for that, I can’t see Maid In Milan beating Baaed with the latter drawing gate one and likely holding the lead or box seat. The relative times for the respective meetings also favour Baaed.
Suggested Bet: $120 Win at $2.25 (BetEasy)
Bet Three- Win- Pakenham Race One Number 10 She’s Deluxe:
Just has to handle the Synthetic and she’ll be winning. Was three weeks between runs when racing in a 2000m maiden last time at Bairnsdale and while she didn’t have a real turn of foot, she stuck on well and just missed after surging late. 2200m no issue, there is absolutely no depth here…if she’s ok on the surface, she’ll win.
Suggested Bet: $50 Win (Tote)
Bet Four- Each Way- Queanbeyan Race Seven Number 3 Mucker:
Throw at the stumps in the last with this Aaron Clarke trained gelding, who can run a race fresh and finds a winnable race. His best form will come over further, say 1200-1400, but he draws a decent enough gate and with these 900m scampers, more often than not they will go silly on speed and this horse will get back and launch late.
Suggested Bet: $10 E/W (Tote)
Bet Five- Win Multi- Northam Race Three Leading Girl/Race Five Sporty Spice:
Couple of Pike shorties to multi. Leading Girl is a beautifully bred filly on debut for Team Williams and Bob Peters, a daughter of Reliable Man. Just one trial this prep, but it was sharp and in good time, so the grounding is there for her to win on debut. Sporty Spice should be winning off a very encouraging debut over 1100m here when second to Time To Trade, who won next start to frank the form. Looks a very soft race for her to get the maiden out of the way.
Suggested Bet: $40 at $2.9 (Sportsbet)
Total Spend: $250