Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (8/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Thursday.
Outlay: $8700
Return: $9901
Bendigo
$30 Win Sunrise Dancer R1 (Tote)
$30 Win Yulong Savings R2 (Tote)
$20 Win Wishful Realizer R4 (Tote)
$20 Win Testa Life R6 (Tote)
Bendigo Overview:
Sunrise Dancer should be winning the first. Formerly with Weir but is now with Phillip Stokes. Contested a Sandown maiden last time where she pulled hard in the run, which left her gassed at the end when third to Age Of Chivalry, who won impressively on Wednesday to frank the form. Back to provincial class, she should get the maiden out of the way. They haven’t missed Yulong Savings in early markets so I think take the tote. This son of Helmet is having his first start with a couple of trials. He looked terrible in the Pakenham trial behind Blue Diamond Preview winner I Am Immortal. Lugging Bit went on, trialled at Werribee and he looked a million bucks, sitting on speed and dashing right away under no pressure. If that version turns up here, he’ll be hard to beat. Wishful Realizer is a son of I Am Invincible with upside for Archie Alexander. Ran over 1200m at Pakenham last time where he had the nice sit just off the pace and tried hard but had no answers for the finale of No Drama Darci, who ran well behind Age Of Chivalry on Wednesday, so that form reads well, Winkers first time and up to 1400m should suit. Testa Life is a hard one to catch in terms of winning, but she does try hard and is usually around the mark. Loomed to win at Yarra Valley last time but she just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second. Fourth up at 2400m on the big track, she looks ready to show her best.
Moonee Valley
$30 Win Brutally Honest R1 @ $4 (BetEasy)
$10 E/W Gwenneth R4 @ $13/$3 (BetEasy)
$10 E/W McGarrett R5 @ $7.5/$2.6 (Sportsbet)
$30 Win Top Of The Range R6 @ $4.6 (BetEasy)
Moonee Valley Overview:
Made Brutally Honest the best of the day/night. HE went straight into the blackbook after a luckless effort last start in a Benalla maiden where he clearly should have won but had no room in the straight when Billy Egan wanted it and it was indeed a brutal watch behind Starouz, who of course ran so well at Caulfield next start so the form reads very well…wide gate means he should get clear air, got enormous upside…if they can run on, he’ll be winning, even though I’m terrified of Lunar Flare with the blinkers on first time. Sustained speed is what Gwenneth is about and she just looks the wrong odds in the fourth. Put a line through her Canterbury run. Had to do work outside the speed, which isn’t her go, and dropped off late. Jake Noonan rides the mare very well, and I’m hoping she pings, finds the front and proves hard to run down. I think McGarrett is clearly the best horse in the fifth, but he’s got such an awful racing pattern and where he gets to, especially over 955m, is an unknown. Hopefully King can find three wide cover, midfield, maybe a touch worse, and launch at them late. Looking at the noms, I was keen on Top Of The Range running well in a Hobart Cup, so have to like him here in a thin staying race. Ran over the track/distance last time and the tempo was just too slow for him. No designated leader so the tempo is up in the air, but just needs a sniff of speed in front to prove hard to beat.
Hobart
$40 Win Little River Boy R4 @ $4.4 (TAB)
$20 Win/$40 Place Miss Iano R8 @ $11/$3.3 (Sportsbet)
Hobart Overview:
Couple of bets on a good day of racing in Hobart. Surprised that Little River Boy isn’t favourite in the fourth. This son of Wordsmith made them look like camels when winning first up over 1100m at this track, and though the time was slow relative to the day, bear in mind he was first up and Siggy hadn’t really moved on him, so there’s upside to come and at the price, have to go his way. I can’t believe there is double figures on offer for Miss Iano, who resumes for Mark Webb. I must be missing something. Last two runs have seen her finish a length off Epidemic and three lengths off Invincibella. Combine that with a good fresh record, sharp jumpout, inside gate…why is she double figures?
