Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (22/2/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Thursday.
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$25 Quaddie= 15.62% (2-3-4-5/4-5-7-8-11/7-8/2-4-5-7)
Starting off in the first with Lucky Imperator, a Gary Moore first starter. He has had three trials in readiness for his debut, the latest coming at Hawkesbury when second to Classique Legend, who won like a really good horse on Wednesday. Lucky Imperator led but was no match in the trial. Blinkers go on to sharpen him, he’s got gate speed and this race lacks depth. I have a peanut on Great Danger for the Provincial Championships but he needs to win this to 1) Get his rating up and 2) To warrant going down that path. Two runs back from a break have come at Taree, bolting up fresh before just being left flat footed next time but bumped into Subtle Grey, who ran a beauty at Port Macquarie on Sunday. J Mac on, hard fit, lands on speed, hard to beat. Star Shaft looks really big odds in the sixth. Tim McIntosh trains this bloke, who hasn’t raced since April last year on the Kensington track when having no luck in the straight. On the Country Championships path you’d suspect, and his two trials leading in have been great. Track with give no issue, soft gate and sprints well fresh. The other I want to speck is Carluca for Jarrod Austin. He ran over this track/distance last time where he was just a fraction keen in the run and that told late when weakening in the straight behind noted swimmer Clevanicc. Note that this horse does tend to race best when he has strong senior jocks on, and Avdulla has won and placed in two rides on the horse. Does no work from the gate, and if he can relax, I think he’ll run a much improved race.
$5 Win/$30 Place From Pentridge R1 @ $16/$3.7 (Sportsbet)
$40 Win Flying Yankee R3 (Tote)
$10 Win/$15 Place Metro Missile R4 @ $9.5 Win (TAB), Place (Tote)
First race looks an absolute bludger for the stayers so I think From Pentridge is worth a throw at the stumps. There was good specking for him last start over 1800m at Bathurst but got back and was never really in the hunt in a race won by Dynamic Dynasty. 2000m and bigger track look big ticks, he has gate one and Shaun Guymer is riding in really good form. Flying Yankee is also accepted for Albury and draws well there, so might run there over here, but she looks smart. On debut for Matty Dale off the back of an strong trial win over 900m here when leading all the way under no pressure and ran good time. Tricky draw, but if she overcomes it, she wins. Metro Missile looks silly odds in the fourth at near double figures. Resumed over 1300m here three weeks back where she got a mile off them in the run and did make up good ground but spotted them a huge start. Can sit closer from the better barrier and at $9/thereabouts, I think she’s a terrific each way gamble.
$10 Win/$20 Place Alienated R2 @ $14/$3.6 (Sportsbet)
$50 Win Miss Toorak Flyer R5 @ $3.2 (TAB)
$20 Quaddie= 12.5% (2-8/3-7-8-10/1-2-3-4-11/3-5-9-13)
Moonee Valley Overview:
If there is a hint of bias towards those on speed/rail, then Alienated looks a good each way speck at the odds. Cliff Murray stable is going really well at the moment, as is this horse, who ran on Sunday at Moe when on speed throughout and fighting hard when narrowly beaten by Foraoise. Tumbles down to 52kg after the claim, looks to lead these for fun and I don’t think 3000m will be an issue if leading and rolling along at his own speed. Best of the day/night for me is Miss Toorak Flyer. I think Jason Warren has her absolutely flying. Most were keen on her in the Country Cup on Magic Millions Day but just had too much to do from the back and wide gate in a total forgive/forget. Been freshened up and her Balnarring jumpout was outstanding, clearly the best of the morning. She can park off a hot speed and launch, plus with the claim for Jack Martin, she’s only got 58kg so given her record, she’s beautifully in.
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