Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (12/4/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5.30pm Thursday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $24610
Betting Strategy Return: $23976
Futures Outlay: $1670
Futures Return: $1871
Wangarrta
$35 Win Splendid R2 @ $3.5 (TAB)
$65 Win Ashtrain R6 @ $6.5 (TAB)
Wangaratta Overview:
Two horses I’m pretty keen on at Wangaratta, starting with Splendid in the second race, on debut for Brent Stanley. This daughter of Snitzel had a March 22 jumpout at Bendigo when on speed all the way before being clicked up and she drew clear late to win well, running sub 60 for the 1000m trial, last 600m in sub 35. Not the strongest maiden going around and usually drawn away from the inside is the spot to be on the track. Made Ashtrain the best of the day and surprised there’s $6.50 on offer. Talented galloper for Dan McCarthy resuming on his home track after a pretty solid Spring prep. Liked the change up speed when asked to win the Benalla trial but looked more impressive in a March 26 jumpout at Wangaratta when on speed and winning under a hold. The grounding looks to be there to run well first up.
Mount Gambier
$40 Win/$60 Place Elvison R8 @ $12/$3.8 (Sportsbet)
Mount Gambier Overview:
Racing returns to Mount Gambier on Friday and I think the value clearly comes in the shape of Elvison in the get out, second up for Jarrod McLean. Resumed at the Bool over 1400m where I specked him at massive odds and I thought he ran well in defeat behind Elusive Rose in a race where there has already been a winner to come out of it. The winner was dominant there, but this bloke did clock some of the best late splits of the race, which bodes well given he’s best is 2000m+. Reckon he might want one more, and likely being targeted for something during the Warrnambool, but can’t let him go around at $12 without having something on.
Cranbourne
$100 Win Shir R5 @ $5.5 (Bet365)
Cranbourne Overview:
Note that 365 was the only bookie with odds up for the meeting at the time of writing. Concede Jochberg is the horse to beat on form, but odds on is short enough and for mine, the $5.50 for Shir is more than acceptable. Resumed in a 58 at Geelong where nothing went for him under Willow and for mine,clear air and he wins comfortably in a horror show behind Conspicuous Maid. Rail out at Cranbourne tends to suit on speed/rail, which Shir should be and given his two runs last prep were in good city races at the Valley, compared to Jochberg, who does come out of a good race first up at Sandown but lone win saw him fell in on the Pakenham Synthetic, can’t get the price gap that big.
