Saturday’s headline act at Flemington is the Australian Guineas (1600m), with Observer emerging as the standout in early betting.
Since markets were released, Observer has been installed as a dominant favourite for the Group 1 mile, clearly separating himself from his rivals in wagering.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2026 Australian Guineas.
2026 Australian Guineas Runner Preview:
1. Observer: I think Observer picks himself. He was ridden with real intent in the Autumn Stakes three weeks ago and once that eventuated, he was $1.10 in the run and duly saluted. Been set for this race, can press forward and will be strong at the end. Keen.
2. Planet Red: Planet Red was the eye catcher behind Observer at Caulfield. He was back and yes, the tempo was ideal for run ons, but it was a day where up/in was dynamite so the fact he came wide and made up decent ground in defeat. If he can settle closer and be within range, he’s dangerous.
3. West Of Swindon: Dragged back in the CS Hayes and was never a factor. Think they’ll ride with far more intent here, he’s one for exotics.
4. Sixties: Big win against the pattern fresh at Rosehill before an arrogant win in the CS Hayes. I think there are holes in both wins, especially the CS Hayes. I think that field, as a whole, looked very suspect pre race and furthermore post race. I’m hard against him.
5. Bingi: Plain in the CS Hayes and can’t see him improving.
6. Officiate: Officiate is one for exotics. He resumed in the CS Hayes where I thought he tracked up with purpose and was a danger to run a positive race but condition just gave out late. Maps ideally one again, he’s a first four threat.
7. Romantic Encounter: Terrible in the Manfred and was better in the CS Hayes but was safely held and I can’t see him threatening.
8. Victorious Spirit: Had the suck run behind, angled out and was good late in the CS Hayes. Nice horse, but he’s not up to this level.
9. Onavuitton: Solid in the Autumn Stakes behind Observer but can’t see him turning the tables.
10. Express Class: Sneaky good run in the CS Hayes and maps to settle much closer. Just don’t think he is up to these.
2026 Australian Guineas $100 Betting Strategy:
$100 Win Observer at $2.50
Group l Strategy Outlay: $3700
Group l Strategy Return: $2893
Australian Guineas Field
| No | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OBSERVER | Ciaron Maher | Ethan Brown | 6 | 57kg |
| 2 | PLANET RED | Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) | Ms Jamie Melham | 9 | 57kg |
| 3 | WEST OF SWINDON | Ciaron Maher | Ben Allen | 3 | 57kg |
| 4 | SIXTIES | Chris Waller | Damian Lane | 10 | 57kg |
| 5 | BINGI | Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman | Luke Cartwright (a) | 2 | 57kg |
| 6 | OFFICIATE | Chris Waller | Ben Melham | 4 | 57kg |
| 7 | ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER (NZ) | Ben, Will & JD Hayes | Daniel Stackhouse | 5 | 57kg |
| 8 | VICTORIOUS SPIRIT | Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman | Zac Spain | 7 | 57kg |
| 9 | ONAVUITTON | Simon Zahra | Thomas Stockdale | 8 | 57kg |
| 10 | EXPRESS CLASS | Gerard Moloney | Patrick Moloney | 1 | 57kg |
Australian Guineas Odds
2026 Australian Guineas Speed Map
West Of Swindon can press forward and potentially hold the lead, but I reckon Observer will bounce out and Ethan Brown will ride like the best horse in the race. Planet Red and Sixties will drag back for cover.
