How much rain and the state of the Flemington track will determine whether Onesmoothoperator takes his place in The Bart Cummings.
Trainer Tim Fitzsimmons is resigned to the fact there will be too much rain fall at Flemington prior to Saturday leaving it in a sodden state.
Flemington racecourse manager Liam O’Keeffe is expecting up to 50mm of rain before Saturday and the meeting to be run on a heavy track.
If that occurs, Onesmoothoperator will be reserved for the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on Saturday week or head straight to the Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 17.
“The rain is going to be a big factor as he just doesn’t go a yard on it,” Fitzsimmons said.
“I think he’d run on a Soft 5, but anything worse, we won’t be running.
“Even in his trackwork, on a heavy track, he can work alright until he comes off the bridle and then he’s not much good.”
After one run in the autumn which was Onesmoothoperator’s first for Fitzsimmons after running for Brian Ellison in last year’s Melbourne Cup, the gelding pleased his new mentor despite finishing well back in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19.
“He only got beaten 4.3 lengths, off a slow speed, and once they put the rail out, it was very difficult to make up ground,” Fitzsimmons said.
“He was doing his best work through the line and the 2000 (metres) was a bit sharp and he needed the run as well.
“He’s come on for the run, and Mark (Zahra) jumps back on, and he’s won on him before.”
Fitzsimmons said he would need to speak to the ownership group about how to tackle the upcoming program for Onesmoothoperator.
The stayer is number 28 in the entry order for the Caulfield Cup and Fitzsimmons said it would not be ideal to run in the Herbert Power and then back-up into the Caulfield Cup.
He said another option may be to hold off for either the Geelong Cup or Moonee Valley Gold Cup, races Onesmoothoperator has won previously.
“If we don’t run Saturday, he’ll have a quiet jump-out on Monday here at Bendigo,” Fitzsimmons said.
“He’s number 27 in the Melbourne Cup, and he looks like he’s a good chance of getting in.
“In an ideal world, he runs Saturday, into the Caulfield Cup, if he gets in, and then onto the Melbourne Cup.”
Should the rain force the scratching of Onesmoothoperator from Saturday’s race, Fitzsimmons said he would travel with Blazing Sword to the Gunbower Gold Cup (1800m) on Saturday.
