Rain is bearing down on Melbourne ahead of the famous first Tuesday in November, when the Melbourne Cup is run at Flemington Racecourse, with much of Victoria likely to stay soggy once showers kick off on Monday.
Despite thickening high cloud on Sunday, temperatures will initially belie the incoming change as northerlies draw warm inland air south. The city is poised to reach around 30°C, while Victoria’s northwest is expected to push well into the mid-30s.
“As the new week begins, a deep trough ahead of a cold front will extend high into the atmosphere, dragging tropical moisture towards southern Australia,” Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains.
“This trough will supply the instability to convert the abundant available moisture into significant rainfall.”
In the cooler air behind the change, Melbourne is forecast to top just 16°C on Monday and 18°C on Tuesday—brisk conditions for racegoers without adequate layers. Rainfall of 20–40mm is forecast on Monday, with a further 10–20mm possible on Tuesday. The heaviest falls are most likely overnight, with showers having a chance to ease by Tuesday afternoon.
For context, Melbourne has recorded 20mm or more on only three days so far in 2025: twice in January and again on Monday, October 27—the heaviest day of the year at 35.4mm—underscoring the significance of the impending event as Cup Day looms.
The wet spell won’t be confined to Victoria. Rain is due to begin in southern and southeastern South Australia on Sunday, before a broader period of unsettled weather spreads across much of eastern Australia and Tasmania.
While spring soakings are typically welcome in southern and inland regions before the seasonal drying trend toward summer, many Victorians may find their public holiday plans dampened next Tuesday, November 4.
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