Bookmaker Palmerbet’s Mail Bag Bets – 2021 Victoria Derby day

Online bookmaker Palmerbet takes a look at this weekends feature races with the Melbourne Cup Carnival kicking off at Flemington with the running of the Victoria Derby headlining the program. See who their traders are backing and laying in both races and read their race write-ups.

VICTORIA DERBY

The three-year-olds race for the Classic Victoria Derby stepping out to the 2500m for the first time in a true staying test.

The Derby dates back to 1855 and is a roll call of some of the greatest three-year-olds to grace the Australian Turf.

Important to look at the lead up races for good guide to chances. Most recent was the MV Vase last week when FORGOT YOU finished strongly to win over the 2040m suggesting he will appreciate the extra distance.

GUNSTOCK demolished them in the Caulfield Classic last start and that has been a solid guide to this race in the past and those two have the form to win this but always like to look for those that have been catching the eye of late and have the most improvement.

I liked the way HITOTSU finished the race off in the G1 Caulfield Guineas when less than 3 lengths behind Anamoe who franked that form in the W.S.Cox Plate. Comes into this ready third-up from spell and the way he was running on over the 1600m last start he can measure up to these.

Value Bet: HITOTSU (Recommended Bookie: PALMERBET)

 

 

COOLMORE STUD STAKES

EXTREME WARRIOR has made some vast improvement this campaign. Went to Echuca first-up and he won his maiden in emphatic style then was thrown in the deep-end against some quality gallopers in the Group 3 Blue Sapphire last start and he showed an exciting turn-of-hoof putting the race beyond doubt in a couple of strides. If he handles the Flemington straight for the first time he will be the one to beat.

They thought enough of HOME AFFAIRS to take on The Everestlast start and although he was no match last 200m he was competitive with them early. Back to his own age here and third-up from spell expect he will be right in the mix and he looks the Palmerbet each way value in this.

Value Bet: HOME AFFAIRS (Recommended Bookie: PALMERBET)

 

CANTALA STAKES

MR BRIGHTSIDE is the big question mark in this stepping up to Group 1 level off 6 straight wins but I am prepared to risk him against some seasoned milers and at the odds I’m not sure he is value.

Watching the G1 Epsom Handicap CASCADIAN looked luckless last 150m and he should have gone very close to winning. Been placed in both starts at the Flemington mile and if he can get that ounce of luck needed in these big races he can win this.

I am a big fan of the Archie Alexander trained CHAILLOT and she loves Flemington. Must be a question mark over a strong mile but if she can sit back and get a soft run here she has big finish and will be powering home late. She looks nice value for exotics and would include in a PALMERBET same race multi.

Value Bet: CASCADIAN (Recommended Bookie: PALMERBET)

 

 

EMPIRE ROSE STAKES

The Queen of the Tasmanian Turf MYSTIC JOURNEY gets her chance third-up from spell. She has been super in both runs back from spell having been placed over 1400m at Flemington. She steps out to the mile for the first time this campaign and that looks the winning move.

She is already a Group 1 winner over this track/distance having won the 2019 Australian Guineas and she can add another Group 1 win to her resume’.

Liked the way HUNGRY HEART finished the race from the back in the Epsom when not beaten all that far. She finished just out of the placings in the G1 George Main Stakes behind Verry Elleegant two starts back and she should be primed for this.

Palmerbet ODDS suggest she will offer nice each way value and she maybe the way to go in this.

Value Bet: HUNGRY HEART (Recommended Bookie: PALMERBET)

 

Finally, if you’re looking for the best Spring Carni-Value from your bookmaker this Racing Carnival, we recommend Palmerbet with Great Odds, Same Race Multi and Race Form for every race.

Goodluck punters!