A crack bunch of milers will line up in the Group l Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Randwick on Saturday. The rail is true, but the track pattern will depend on what the weather does and how much rain hits the track.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Epsom Handicap.
2021 Epsom Handicap Speed Map
The WaterBott pair of Riodini and Discharged will slide forward, with Riodini the leader based on his past couple of runs. Ashman will press forward too given that is his mood realistic chance of winning. Harmony Rose didn’t appreciate racing between runners first up so expect a more aggressive steer.
2021 Epsom Handicap Runner Preview
1. Mo’Unga: I’ll be saying this for a lot of runners. The weather forecast will determine his chances. Dry track, hard to beat. But with rain forecast, I think he’s a risk even though he has come back super. Will need luck from the draw and with top weight, I’m happy to risk him.
2. Cascadian: His best is good enough, but he’s a tease. Plain in the Chelmsford and thought he was similar in the George Main, but reviewing the meeting, his run last start was full of merit. He’s a good price if you like him…but he’s a very hard horse to trust.
3. Dalasan: I can’t believe he’s $20+. IMO, he will only run well. More or less a barrier trial fresh, then was good late from the back in the Rupert Clarke. Gets to a suitable trip, he ran well in the Doncaster in the Autumn, he likes wet ground and gets a hungry J Mac steering.
4. Star Of The Seas: He’s one I could include in wider multiples. He got his preferred conditions in the George Main and was okay late but never really threatened. He’ll do no work from the draw and like him back to a handicap. Just not sure how well he’s going.
5. Lion’s Roar: Bone dry track is what he needs. With rain forecast and this track likely to have juice in it, I’m treating him as a scratching.
6. Hungry Heart: If this track was firm, I’d declare her a good thing. I think she’s flying. But, she’s a dry track horse. In saying that, she closed off strongly in the George Main on wet ground, but, she was nearer the inside, which was the right spot. If you knew she would handle the wet, she likely wins.
7. Icebath: Flying without winning. Good in defeat last Saturday and looks primed to run well, with conditions to suit. Just where does she get to from the draw? Back near last? It’ll be an ask but if she gets the right drag up, she can win.
8. Rock: I was really keen on him in the Cameron at Newcastle but he did zero and off that, I don’t think he will be troubling these, especially on wet ground.
9: Riodini: Weights aren’t everything, but 59kg down to 51.5kg for a big Group l is something you do have to take notice of, and he’s flying. It’s taken Think It Over and Verry Elleegant to beat him the past two runs. Short enough in betting, but he’s the one to beat.
10: Aramayo: Another with good weight relief from last start, 7kg in fact. But, is the Bill Ritchie strong enough form to be winning this? IMO, the only two horses to take from that race is Atishu and Private Eye.
11. Reloaded: Surely…surely he doesn’t win. Was unlucky last Saturday in the Shannon, and I think is racing well…but this is a bridge too far.
12. Private Eye: Can see why he’s popular. He was massive in the Bill Ritchie I thought given the hard run he had and the way he finished off against the bias. Tumbles in weight and has been racing all prep like he wants the mile. Leading contender.
13: Atishu: Big odds I feel. Ridden upside down in the Bill Ritchie because she had to win that race to get into this race and that she did, with Tim Clark producing a peach. She will sit back and launch late and I think is right in this.
14. Discharged: Led and was pipped on the peg last Saturday in the Shannon. He will be in the first few and trying hard. Just doesn’t have the class and killer blow to win IMO.
15. Ashman: Surprised many with his win in the Cameron at Newcastle when leading throughout. If he leads here, he will have to do a power of work to find it and that should bring him undone.
16. Harmony Rose: She’s a sleeper at a big price. Seemingly had her chance in the Bill Ritchie but was racing tight between runners and not sure she liked that. Drawn out, she can slide forward, be on speed and we know at her best she is capable.
17 Sky Lab: Not sure what the stable has in mind for him, but he’s talented. Got very close to Ashman in the Cameron. He has a good race in him. Don’t think it’s here, but he could well be a player in Melbourne during the Spring.
2021 Epsom Handicap $100 Betting Strategy:
I’m going to have $20 Win (Tote/Top Fluc) on five runners. It’s a race with a stack of winning chances but the five for me are Dalasan, Hungry Heart, Icebath, Riodini and Atishu.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $800
Group l Strategy Return: $640
