19/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, William Reid Stakes night

Big field of juveniles, half of them unraced, 1000m at the Valley…yep, letting this go through to the keeper. In races like this, if you are going to bet, look for those that are double figures because generally it is horses that are at a longer price that take this out. On top is 10 Zanzibar Gem (Bet Now: $10.00). She’s had two career outings, both at Stakes level. Debuted at Caulfield in the Spring and was good behind Fake Love, then resumed at Flemington and wasn’t far off a sharp one in Tycoon Humma. That form reads well, draws soft…she’ll run a positive race.

A clear market watch with 3 Hunnam (Bet Now: $4.50). He was backed as if unbeatable when debuting in the Golden Gift in the Spring but failed to fire on the bog. Then raced at Rosehill again and was good late from off the speed when third. Now at Flemington, been gelded and his two jumpouts have been solid enough to suggest he has come back well, but market will be the guide.

13 Taborca (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting runner. Son of Snitzel on debut for Chris Waller and I say interesting because his recent jumpout was at Werribee and though pushed out, he did beat home Hunnam quite comfortably in that piece of work. That horse is around $8 whereas this guy is $20+ despite drawing barrier one. He could be one to have a small speck on at big odds.

I think the gap in the market between 4 Snapper (Bet Now: $3.00) and Muntaseera is far too great so from a price angle, it is Snapper who goes on top. He has been a revelation this time in. Gelded prior to the start of the prep and he has produced two very sharp wins at this track/distance. Latest win saw him lead throughout despite copping pressure and his overall time was quickest of the four 1200m races on that meeting, including boom mare Marabi. I think he’ll only run well.

8 Muntaseera (Bet Now: $2.80) is the class of the race and the weights scale does seemingly throw her in. I just question how well she is going and is she as good as what the market is making us believe. Took on the older horses fresh in the Bob Hoysted, had the back of the eventual winner Fabergino and couldn’t make up the ground. I thought she was disappointing, so $2.40 IMO is rock bottom odds. She can win, clearly, but not at that price. I’d want $3+.

Keen to see how 2 War Correspondent (Bet Now: $11.00) goes. He’s a very good 3YO from Tassie that makes the trip over and would be the near the top of the tree in terms of best three year olds in that part of the world. Has been very strong in both runs/wins this time in and while it’s not to the extent of WA gallopers, but how often do we see these Tassie raiders measure up in Melbourne.

This is a very tough race with a host of chances. The safe option for me is 5 Rebel Racer (Bet Now: $4.60), who looks to have returned in good order for Kav. Thought he showed good ticker to win over 1800m at Sandown last time. Wasn’t really going to get there, but surged when it counted to get the win. Up in trip, he can roll forward in a race void of early speed and prove hard to beat.

2 Cernan (Bet Now: $6.00) should be suited up to 2040m for Peter Moody. Resumed over the mile at the Valley where he was back in the run and spotting them a decent start, but I liked the way he finished his race off behind a very much in form The Regiment. Is a second up winner and gets to a more suitable distance.

3 Sandbanks (Bet Now: $13.00) has returned in pretty good order for the Lindsey Smith team. Didn’t think he was too bad fresh at Ballarat behind Revlis before going to the 1850m at Terang where he found the best part of the track but still produced a powerful finale to win and win well. Think he’s the value here.

2 Miss Inbetween (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a good gamble each way to my eye. Michael Mehegan trains this filly, who has had two runs back from a spell. Zero luck fresh here in the Typhoon Tracy before going to Flemington where they were positive from the outset in a slowly run race and fought on well to run fourth. Now gets to her suitable trip, has upside and potentially could lead these for fun if Williams is positive again.

4 Love Sensation (Bet Now: $5.00) has the Sydney form and I think that always has to be respected when it comes to Melbourne. She did a good job in the Light Fingers and then very fast run Surround when good late behind dominant winner Forbidden Love. That is very strong form for a race like this.

7 Vidiano (Bet Now: $8.00) does look to be an Oaks type for Peter Moody, who does have a number of fillies in his camp who look to be heading down that path, whether it be Sydney, Adelaide or Brisbane. This girl was 1600m back to 1400m when breaking her maiden tag at Pakenham last start and I thought she was quite strong at the end, so the rise in trip again suits and can settle handy from the draw.

As you’d expect with these races, abundance of early speed engaged. The horse that will get the drop off it is 12 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $12.00) for Kylie Vella. He comes back to his favourite track/distance after racing over 1100m at Ballarat last time in what was pretty much a 600m barrier trial. Humzz controlled from the front and gave nothing else a look in. He’ll need luck, but if he gets it, he’ll be hard to hold out late.

9 Lesage (Bet Now: $3.60) has to be respected. It was a peach from Olly to get her home at this track/distance fresh. Lobbed into a perfect spot from a tricky gate and once he got the mare so close in the run, it was race over and she bolted up. Harder here, but she is the one with upside and progression.

10 Rock Tycoon (Bet Now: $23.00) is in a similar boat to The Last Napoleon in that he will need luck in the run, but he’s going very well this time in and is a two time winner this season at this track/distance. He ran behind Lesage last time, finishing fourth, but didn’t get a great deal of luck at a vital stage. Knockout chance if things fall into place.

I can’t see much early speed engaged here so looking for the mare with the best turn of foot and that clearly lies with 5 Yamazaki (Bet Now: $8.00). Was on her at the 40’s last time in the Frances Tressady and yes, speaking from my pocket, but she nearly should have won had McEvoy got going earlier. She got out too late and really attacked the line. If she’s within range here in what is a slowly run race, her late speed will be too much for this lot.

Dry ground is the key to 4 Scarlet Dream (Bet Now: $6.50) and yes, she has sucked me in a few times, but I’m going to the well one more time with her. She was fabulous fresh in the Matron at Flemington and I think you could make a case that with clear air in the straight, she goes close to knocking off Sovereign Award. Fitter, 2000m, dry ground…she gets her chance.

1 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $9.50) did win this race two years ago when on speed and that is the way to ride. McNeil rode her very negative fresh in the Mannerism, then in the Matron, she had to chase Sovereign Award and was gassed at the 300m. Potentially gets a soft lead and we know her best is good enough.

Dry track, fast tempo, first up…it’s the perfect set up for 8 Libertini (Bet Now: $3.70) and a golden chance to win her major. Had a three run Spring prep and we saw what she did fresh last prep. She gave Classique Legend a touch up in the Premiere before being far from disgraced in the Everest, then placing in the VRC Sprint Classic. Her sprint form is A1, she’s trialled well…I think she’s a near good thing.

Have to forgive a good horse for one poor run. Doing that with 13 September Run (Bet Now: $6.00). She just never looked likely in the Newmarket and wasn’t the same filly we saw in the starts prior where she was so electric. But, that was all down the straight. Now she’s back to a bending track. If you knew she would bring her best, she’d just about win. But last start and the fact the three year olds continually aren’t measuring up is the concern.

I haven’t been alone in knocking and potting 6 Masked Crusader (Bet Now: $8.50), but I think he has well and truly turned the corner this prep. Produced an electric finish to win the Southern Cross fresh before being thrown in the deep end in the Canterbury Stakes and he ran an absolute beauty I thought behind Savatiano. That has to read well for this.

I think the highlight of the meeting will be seeing 9 Marabi (Bet Now: $1.35) go around again. She’s a close relation to former gun mare Jameka and while she hasn’t reached the level of her star sibling, Marabi is heading in the right direction. 2/2 to start her career, winning by big spaces and running fast time, whilst doing it from on speed. Great recipe to win races, good races, and this should be another stepping stone.

11 Passionate Lass (Bet Now: $4.20) should run second. Team Hawkes trained filly that resumes and is also 2/2 to start her career. Not at the level of brilliance of Marabi, but enough to suggest that down the track, she too could measure up at blacktype level. IMO, the only hope she has of winning is if she holds the front and on speed/rail is red hot.

3 Zabelarina (Bet Now: $12.00) doesn’t really know how to run a bad race fresh and I suspect that trend will continue here. Archie Alexander trained mare that resumes, having only had a two run Spring/Summer. First up last prep was wide throughout and stuck on well when third to Snapdancer in a raced that rated through the roof. Then at Caulfield, got back to last and couldn’t fire a shot. Jumped out well leading in so keen to see how she goes.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Libertini

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Miss Inbetween

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 12 The Last Napoleon

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6, 9, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 8

Leg Four: 9

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review