29/6/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Melbourne racing this Saturday returns to Caulfield where nine races have been set down. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Was really keen on 2 King Of Hastings (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) when he ran at Sandown a fortnight back and after a few hundred metres, I thought he was home when he got the leader rather cheaply. Entitled to kick hard, which he did, but couldn’t quite finish it off and was grabbed in the last couple of strides by Can’t Be Done. Hoping he will improve with added fitness and perhaps better suited with a bunny to chase like he did when winning on debut.

3 Sizzlefly (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) should take some beating here for Phillip Stokes off the back of a sharp first up win at Mornington over 1000m when settling off the speed before Kayla Crowther got her to the outside before the home turn and she went through his gears like a good horse. On the clock, she ran fast time, but bear in mind it was race one and the track did get stuck into as the meeting was run, so a bit flattered in that regard, but no denying the talent under the hood.

11 Avon River (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained filly that is first up. She kicked off her career in the Summer where she raced four times, ending the prep with a fourth in the Inglis Millennium behind Castelvecchio, arguably the best 2YO we’ve seen this season. That form clearly reads well for this and her recent jumpout looked pretty encouraging to the eye.

Surely they let 2 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) run? He looked really well placed last Saturday at Flemington but for some reason, he was hooked back to near last and was no hope after that, but did make ground in a good run despite horrendous tactics, likely given by the stable to the apprentice. Hopefully he is allowed to jump forward and sit near the speed. If so, the one to beat.

8 Royal Thunder (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be going okay for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Solid in defeat two back here behind Silent Roar before racing at this trip at Sandown two weeks ago when wide no cover for the trip and stuck to the task pretty gamely I thought behind Street Sheik. Think with better luck this time around, he should take some beating back to Caulfield.

6 Heir To The Throne (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Henry Dwyer trained gelding who scored a narrow but solid win two back at the midweeks at Sale before going to Sandown when getting three wide cover and trying hard but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Street Sheik and had to settle for fifth. Gets onto his home track now and I think firmer footing will really help his cause.

5 Fabric (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is a Danny O’Brien trained filly who has been quite good this time in, last start seeing her bolt up at Flemington over 1400m four weeks ago when given a 12/10 steer by Williams and holding a safe margin to the line. Has been nominated a couple of times since, but instead had a jumpout last week and looked pretty good there to tune the legs up for this assignment.

2 Persuader (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Price/Kent trained filly who was a few weeks between runs when racing last Saturday at Flemington in the Creswick where she probably found the class a bit much but stuck to the task well and was good in defeat behind Gytrash. She was 11 days between runs when winning the Twilight Glow at Sandown in the Spring so a somewhat quick back up she’s handled.

10 Really Swish $9.00 TOP ODDS) can be a real sharp improver down in the weights for the Corstens team. Thought his first two runs for the prep were solid prior to going to Mornington where he just got too far back in the run and was never a factor behind Blonde Choice. Down to 52kg after the claim and overall, this race doesn’t appear overly strong, so won’t need to improve too much to be around the mark.

Would love to know if she’s had a jumpout or what sort of work has been put into her, but if 2 News Girl (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is right, she just about wins. Geoff Duryea trains this filly, who contested some decent races during the Autumn Carnival, running a close up second to Crack The Code on a couple of occasions, including the Kevin Hayes Stakes. Has class on these. Just have to wait and see what the market does.

11 Sweet Jazz (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a talented filly for the Cindy Alderson who had trialled up enormous prior to resuming last Wednesday at Sandown where nothing really went right for her and was very good in defeat behind Zizzis. She can sit closer in the run with a clean jump and I suspect that will be the case if she does jump well and off the trial, I think she’s come back very well.

8 Voila (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a real one batter and I couldn’t back her to win but back to Caulfield, she’s one to be included in multiples. Took on the boys and went up to 1200m at Sandown two weeks ago where she was never really in the hunt but it was a day where on speed/rail was seemingly a decent place to be. Run prior was here and she was luckless behind Bam’s On Fire. Repeats that run and she’ll go well.

Yet to win in 18 attempts at Caulfield but I think 4 Highland Beat (Bet Now: $3.80) can get win number one next to his name. He ran over 1140m at Geelong last start on a bog and under Jamie Kah, he swept around them in the straight and powered clear for a dominant win. Up to 1200m is no issue and probably gains with Williams taking over from a good gate. Hard to beat.

7 Torpenhow (Bet Now: $3.80) is a son of Street Cry for James Cummings that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since March 13 at Warwick Farm when back and making up good ground late behind the then in form Tonsor. He has had three trials in readiness for his return and interesting that the stable resumes him in Melbourne instead of Sydney. Market watch for sure.

3 Barthelona (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Mike Moroney trained gelding first up here. This son of Zoffany has showed good city class talent in the past but at times it’s been consistency that has let him down because one run he’d look fantastic and then next start he’d be ordinary. Goes good fresh, good front running apprentice on board and his recent jumpout was more than encouraging.

1 Dogmatic (Bet Now: $3.10) has the runs on the board for Richard Laming. Spank job here two back before going to Sandown where he had to carry topweight and do work in the run. Hit the front halfway down the straight and was there to be run down, which he was, but he didn’t turn it up and was very brave in defeat. Has to be regarded as a winning chance in a similar race.

2 Tysonic (Bet Now: $4.00) does look the key threat. Chris Waller trains this filly, who was outstanding in defeat here two back behind Dogmatic before going to Sandown where he was given a lovely ride by Mick Dee and the filly surged hard late to get the win. Draws to get a good run once again and that Sandown race does look the right form reference for this race.

7 Berry Dangerous (Bet Now: $23.00) looks to have a bit of upside left for the Daniel Bowman stable and comes here in good form after winning his maiden last time out during the Swan Hill Carnival where he looked to race a bit keen in the run and was probably entitled to drop away late but he kept finding and was too good, running to the line strongly, suggesting 2000m will be fine.

1 Carzoff (Bet Now: $6.00) looks to be flying for Chris Waller. Had trialled up very well prior to resuming over 1400m at Flemington three weeks ago where he got well off the speed and was never a winning factor, but was building the revs late despite not a lot of room and was very good for a horse first up that wants further, which he gets here, and his tick over jumpout last Friday was sharp to the eye.

5 Masculino (Bet Now: $4.40) has the right set up to win IMO. The Price/Kent stable trains this gelding, who was in need of the run first up at Flemington behind Spanner Head over 1400m before stepping up to 1800m where he lumped 60kg, sat on speed and was good in defeat behind Dr Drill. Gets really good weight relief this time around and if out of trouble on speed, he’ll take some beating.

3 Torgersen (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Chris Waller trained galloper who finished off alright at Sandown behind Waging War after getting a fair way back in the run. Liked the way he closed off and his late splits were good relative to the race. 1800m is a little bit of a query with him, but liked the way he found the line last time and overall, this doesn’t appear to be an overly strong race.

1 Miss Norway (Bet Now: $4.00) on top. John Sadler trains this mare, who took on the boys first up down the Flemington straight where she cost herself the win given she was wayward down the straight and IMO, if she just ran straight, she beats Parwan Prince, instead of a close second. Back on a bending track, second up, back to mares grade, she looks a great bet.

I think 1200m and added fitness will suit the Nathan McPherson trained 5 Eurack (Bet Now: $5.50). She resumed over 1100m at Flemington a few weeks ago where she just lacked race fitness but was good late behind the in form Parsifal. 1200m I like, has the run under the belt but what I will say is that she is usually popular with punters and goes around unders mostly, so I’d wait til near post time if you like her.

Back to 1200m and Caulfield will suit 4 All About Nicci (Bet Now: $31.00), who was a surprise winner here three back and in a couple of runs since has been solid. Last start came at Flemington over 1400m and for mine, the seven furlongs at this level is a bridge too far. She’ll track a good speed from the inside and if she runs up to her win three back, she’s in the mix.

4 Street Sheik (Bet Now: $4.80) can continue his winning ways. The blinkers seem to have really switched this horse on, winning impressively two back on the Parks track before stepping up to the mile at Sandown where gate one and a peach from Olly was the difference between winning and losing. I reckon the mile sees him right out so back to 1400m and on a track he has run well at previously, he’l take some beating.

10 Into Rio (Bet Now: $4.20) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained gelding who had been trialling up well prior to resuming over 1400m at Seymour where he was hard in the market and despite getting well back off the speed, he produced a brilliant finale under Thomas Stockdale to get the job done. Has run well in town before and I think the key to this horse is fresh legs because that’s when he races best.

7 Angelic Spirit (Bet Now: $7.00) is the interesting runner. This mare just went too hard first up at Flemington behind Bad Wolf, setting a fast speed and fading late. Raced there again last Saturday and was better but still expected a bit more behind Pop Girl. Takes on the boys but again gets control in front and if she gets back to something near her best, she’ll take some beating.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Street Sheik

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Miss Norway

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Carzoff

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 4

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