21/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Oaklands Plate day

The Parks track at Morphettville is where Adelaide racing takes place this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out six metres for the remainder.

Like 2 Exalted Lightning (Bet Now: $12.00) here in a tough race for the stayers. This bloke ran over 2600m at Morphettville three weeks back where he probably found the class a bit much but stuck on okay in defeat without really threatening behind Euroman. Does tend to race better on the Parks track and back to this level, he should run well.

9 Casino Club (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Tony McEvoy trained mare who ran over 2100m two weeks ago at Gawler (Metro) where she was off the bit a fair way out and then got severely checked when looking to build momentum again. Should have finished a touch closer behind Danouli. She can bounce back with clear running.

3 Survived (Bet Now: $8.50) is an Archue Alexander trained stayer who can be hit and miss at times but he does seem to be quite reliable when racing in South Australia, as we saw three back when beaten narrowly by Gracena. He does his best work when racing on speed and if he gets there without doing too much work, he’ll take some beating because he’s tough to get past when he’s right.

Really keen here on the Ryan Balfour trained 7 Embecee Lil (Bet Now: $4.20). Lovely ride from Sakai got her home a few weeks back despite clearly looking big in condition. She should improve big time off that, and she was nominated for the Leilani Final recently at Flemington, so the stable must be thinking she’s going quite well.

4 Painte (Bet Now: $5.50) isn’t one of mine, but he’s going okay at the moment and a win perhaps isn’t far away. He is a few weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Flemington and battling away without threatening behind the low flying Barthelona. Perhaps the trip away will do him the world of good and get him back into some positive form.

6 Sohool (Bet Now: $23.00) a definite threat for me. Darren Weir trains this five year old, who is a few weeks between runs since racing over 1550m on the Parks track where he got back in an on pace dominated affair and had no chance of winning but stuck on well behind Tried And Tired. Significant drop in depth and grade. Looks a key threat.

2 Poised To Strike (Bet Now: $2.10) is an Akeed Mofeed gelding for the Hayes/Dabernig team who was good on debut behind Unfair Dismissal before turning the tables on that horse comfortably with a dominant win over 1250m here under Dom Tourneur. He looks as if he’ll eat up the 1400m and stable is flying with their youngsters.

1 Unfair Dismissal (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tony McEvoy trained colt racing really well at the moment but just not sure about him at 1400m. It will all depend if he gets a soft lead. He got that four weeks back over 1250m here but was no match for the horse mentioned above. He does have soft track form next to his name and draws well.

5 Exalted Trail (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Good Journey for the Grant Young team who has placed in both career outings. He ran over 1100m on the course proper three weeks ago and despite starting long odds, I thought his run was a beauty from the back behind the above average Assertive Play. 1400m looks no issue and should get a suck run on the fence.

3 Holy Freeze (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the one to beat for mine. Darren Weir trains this three year old, who was heavily backed when taking on the older horses over 1300m at Sandown but just did a bit too much work in the run and didn’t quite see the 1300m out when third to Onslaught. Like him back to 1250m against his own age and should take some beating.

5 Amberdi (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Sue Jaensch trained filly who is 2/2 this time in. Landed some good bets when winning first up at Gawler before racing there a fortnight back at the Metro meeting where she was off the map in betting and despite staggering late, she got the job done. First time she’ll be third up in a prep and she was tiring late last start, which is the query, but again, have to respect the stable.

1 Modulate (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Richard Jolly trained gelding who is three weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m on the course proper where he chased hard all the way to run second to Atlantica, who franked the form by placing at Caulfield last Saturday. Prefer him at 1400m, but he’s got upside and has run well here before.

8 Musical Query (Bet Now: $20.00) looks one of the hardest to beat. This girl was formerly trained in Newcastle but had her first run in SA for the Mick Minervini team at Naracoorte where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but was no match late for Licorice Bullet. Think she’ll appreciate firmer footing and I think with cover she’ll be more effective.

12 With Hope (Bet Now: $10.00) is a daughter of Mint Lane resuming for the Ken Sweeney yard. This girl hasn’t raced since April 4 at Gawler when finishing fifth over 1100m. She has a really good first up record and is suited at 1000m. Resumes with no trials, but if she can get cover from the draw, I think she’s a definite threat.

1 All About Nicci (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Kym Hann trained mare who was just fair when resuming at Ballarat before racing on her home track at Bendigo where she hit the front late in the straight and looked home but was nabbed right on the peg by Keep Courting. J Allen on, third up with upside and wet track is a big tick.

I’ll take a chance on 12 Disco Rebel (Bet Now: $26.00) for the low flying Sue Jaensch team, who should always be respected when coming to town. She brings this daughter of Rebel Raider straight to town after winning over 1430m at Naracoorte on debut, coming with a well timed run from the back. Has plenty of upside and though the time was five lengths slower than the other 1430m race that afternoon, the stable don’t bring them to town unless they perform.

1 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Tony McEvoy trained three year old on the quick back up after winning over this track/distance last Wednesday where he always looked the winner despite doing a bit of work in the run. Margin was 2.5L but that flattered his rivals I think because he did a bit wrong. That was his first run in around three weeks, so there should be room to improve.

Not really a long shot, but 3 Casa De Lago (Bet Now: $3.70) is two weeks between runs for the Patrick Payne team after racing in the Rivette Final at the Flemington mile where she got back in a slowly run affair but finished off quite well in defeat I thought behind Mintha. She has run well up to 2100m before, so a hard 1550m here no issue and stable is absolutely flying at the moment, especially in SA.

2 She’s Beneficial (Bet Now: $4.50) looks the way to go. Kym Hann trains this bloke at Bendigo, who resumed on her home track and I thought she worked home well late behind Miss Toorak Flyer in a race which looked to have far more depth than what she faces here. J Allen on from a good draw in a nothing race, she’ll do me.

7 Bolt I Am (Bet Now: $7.00) is a David Jolly trained gelding who has had two runs back from a break, both of which have come over 900m at Murray Bridge. Produced a barnstorming effort to win first up before taking on some decent sprinters last time and working home okay but looked a touch flat from the resumption when fourth to Celtic Blast. Fast run 1250m looks ideal and is bred to handle a track with give in it.

6 Alaskan Jade (Bet Now: $11.00) isn’t one of mine I could back to win but she’s the sort of mare who could easily bob up and win without surprising. Ran in the Gold Denari race at Gawler (Metro) last time where she got back and just couldn’t come on at all behind the Kennewell mare. Has run well here before and if the breaks go her way, she can threaten.

5 It’s Time For Magic (Bet Now: $3.40) clearly on top for me in the last. The mare had her first run for Will Clarken three weeks back over 1200m on the course proper where she was on speed and tried hard but condition just ran out late when second to Mystified. Should come on from that and 1400m looks ideal.

8 Tan Tat Trusting (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Trusting gelding for the Tony McEvoy team who defied a minor betting drift when bolting up on speed at Ballarat under Chris Parnham. The race didn’t look strong on paper but he put them away quite comfortably. He is a second up winner and he’s been given an extra week or so to recover from the resumption.

1 Vieira (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Lean Conlon trained gelding who rarely runs a bad race and I think he’ll be around the mark again. Ran over 1200m on the course proper three weeks ago where he did a bit of work in the run from the wide gate and tried hard but Mystified decided to turn up and prove too good. Goes much better on the Parks track and has to be respected.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Holy Freeze

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 It’s Time For Magic

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 12 Disco Rebel

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 8, 9, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 3, 12

Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 7

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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