Flemington will back up from its return to racing last Saturday with another strong nine race meeting this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : Christmas Season Plate 1100m
Back Me: 1 American Genius (Bet Now: $2.50) for me here in what looks a pretty thin two year old event. This colt hasn’t raced since the Clockwise Classic on Ballarat Cup Day where he chased hard all the way but was simply no match for the above average Despatch. The debut run came here down the straight in the Maribyrnong Trial behind Madeenaty, who looks one of the best juveniles in Victoria. The one to beat here.
Big Danger: 6 Totten (Bet Now: $4.00) is an Exceed And Excel colt that debuts for Godolphin and John O’Shea. He has trialled twice leading up to his debut, both in Sydney. The first of those came behind stablemate Trekking, who bolted up on debut himself, while Totten went to the line nicely in that trial. The second trial came last week when winning at Rosehill. Looks a likely type and stable is going very well with their juveniles.
Long Shot: 7 Aspen Angel (Bet Now: $19.00) is one to keep an eye on. Debuts for David Bourne and to be steered by one of Victoria’s best in Linda Meech. Hasn’t been seen publicly, so how good/bad he is we don’t know, but I’ll respect the fact that the stable send him to town on debut where they could have found a provincial maiden, and the stable are always astute when they come to the city.
Race Two (13:35) : Beachside Handicap (84) 1400m
Back Me: 2 Mossbeat (Bet Now: $6.50) is a mare who has really found a new lease on life under the care of the Hayes/Dabernig team. She ran over 1400m at Pakenham a fortnight back and was brave in defeat given she sat wide no cover for the duration of the trip yet still was a winning chance with around 200m to go but was no match late for Maternal. Her winning record doesn’t fill you with much confidence, but she finds a very winnable race here.
Big Danger: 5 Labdien (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy mare that resumes for Chris Waller. Her Winter/Spring prep was plagued by bad barriers and getting too far back in the run, but despite that, she did run quite well in some strong races, with efforts behind Extsnsible and Chetwood the highlights. Jump outs have been strong to my eye and first up last prep she wasn’t far off the above average mare Interstellar.
Long Shot: 1 Hijack Hussy (Bet Now: $10.00) isn’t one of my horses, but after Aurum Spirit won last week, I will include this pest in the tips. Did nothing in her first two runs this time in, but she finished off strongly against the bias last time out in the Port Fairy Cup at the Bool. Flemington 1400m will really suit this mare and the small field helps.
Race Three (14:10) : ISCA Handicap (70) 1100m
Back Me: 1 Miss Wonderland (Bet Now: $1.55) resumed on Oaks Day in a Stakes race over this track/distance where she sat off the speed and chased hard all the way but was simply no match for the above average Sydney filly Spright. Been given a little break since and she does find a very winnable race here. Major threat.
Big Danger: 6 Millinery (Bet Now: $5.50), though aided by the on speed bias, was pretty good to the eye when resuming at Geelong and leading all the way under Michael Walker, running along in front and giving nothing else a look in. Form from her first prep was very good, including a strong third down the straight here on debut. Not sure she can win, but a threat if the top tip is off her game.
Long Shot: 4 Sister Kitty Mac (Bet Now: $9.00) ran on Werribee Cup Day on Sunday where I thought she was pretty game in winning and getting the job done given she did the work outside the speed and she was there to be beaten, but she showed some really good fight to win. Should get ideal cover from the gate here and is a filly in form.
Race Four (14:45) : Planet Ruler Handicap (70) 1400m
Back Me: 8 Gruosi (Bet Now: $14.00) resumed with a strong effort at Pakenham when running second before going to a Wangaratta maiden where he sat on speed most of the way and it was pretty painless for his supporters. He is the horse with good upside here, maps well and Callow is riding in outstanding form.
Big Danger: 1 Snitzson (Bet Now: $3.70) resumed with a dominant maiden win at Cranbourne before proving that was no fluke with a strong effort at Pakenham on their Cup Day, aided by a peach from Williams. Draws terribly here and is creeping up in the weights, which is the worry, but he’s getting fitter, in form and has scope.
Long Shot: 6 Styleman (Bet Now: $7.00) resumed off a freshen up when racing at the Valley three weeks ago where he had a nice sit just off the speed and though he tried hard, he was simply no match for the well above average three year old Wise Hero. He did have solid market support at odds and ran accordingly, so I think he is right in the ball game, especially with the extra furlong and back onto a bigger track.
Race Five (15:20) : Skipton Handicap 2500m
Back Me: 3 Boom Time (Bet Now: $2.90) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the Hayes/Dabernig operation, winning two of his three runs this time in, those two wins being his last starts, starting off with a mile win here on Stakes Day before stepping up to 2040m at the Valley when ridden a treat by Williams and duly saluting. Doubt he will have troubles with the 2500m, he’s hard fit, in form and has scope to improve.
Big Danger: 9 Four Carat (Bet Now: $9.00) could be an improver here at odds. He was hard in the market when racing in one of those 3000m slugfests at the Valley and he just plodded on for fourth to Bullish Stock, who was ridden a treat by Walker. The form around him prior reads very well for a race of this class and I think getting back onto a bigger track and a drop back in trip should suit.
Long Shot: 8 Thunder Teddington (Bet Now: $17.00) was unwanted in betting when racing in the Pakenham Cup (2500m) last time out and he ran accordingly behind Pilote D’Essai despite the fact he looked to travel very well in the run, three wide with cover. That was his first run in a month, so I think he has upside and the start prior over 2000m here behind Little White Cloud was a beauty.
Race Six (16:00) : Fiesta Star Handicap 1100m
Back Me: 1 General Truce (Bet Now: $21.00) is getting on in years but still looks to be racing quite well. He ran over 1000m at the Valley three weeks back where he had a nice sit just off the speed but the race was really dominated by the front group and nothing from behind could make ground. Five time winner at the track and the start prior did see him run well behind Group l performers Redzel and Terravista.
Big Danger: 6 Bullpit (Bet Now: $11.00) was huge in defeat I thought in the Shakesperean Lass race at the Valley given he was dragged back to near last in the run and in a race where it was difficult for backmarkers to get involved, but he did make up ground late. Saves his best for the straight course and if allowed to roll along, he’ll take some beating.
Long Shot: 8 Lonrockstar (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting runner here. Taented sprinter that resumes for the John Sadler yard after a solid Autumn/Winter without winning. His last start did come over 1000m here when making up some ground late behind General Truce. I can’t find a recent jump out for him, so fitness levels are unknown, but he has a brilliant fresh record and saves his best for the straight course.
Race Seven (16:40) : Tauto Handicap (84) 2000m
Back Me: 15 Payroll (Bet Now: $7.50) for me here. She spanked an average lot fresh at Cranbourne before racing over the Valley mile where she got back in the ruck in a slowly run race and was forced widest on the turn, so for her to finish as close as she did was very good, and the form was franked last week. Gets back to Flemington where she has form around Euro Angel, who is Group l performed. Happy to be with her.
Big Danger: 11 Flying Light (Bet Now: $8.00) ran over the mile at the Valley three weeks ago where he sat near the speed and though he was off the bit before the turn and quickly rounded up by Black Sheep, he stuck to the task quite gamely to hold second. That horse had no luck last week, but Aurum Spirit came out of that to win last week, so the form reads okay and up to 2000m is a big tick.
Long Shot: 12 Gilchrist (Bet Now: $31.00) is a roughie who should definitely be included at longer odds. He ran over the Valley mile three weeks back and sat wide no cover throughout but to his credit he stuck on pretty well I thought behind Black Sheep. Two from three at 2000m and he has a stack of upside. Just needs cover and a drag up to be a threat here.
Race Eight (17:20) : Chanteclair Handicap 1600m
Back Me: 3 Mihany (Bet Now: $2.70) was gifted the lead when racing over the mile on Pakenham Cup Day and that really was the end of the section as Regan Bayliss controlled the race to suit himself and when he kicked for home, his rivals just couldn’t produce that turn of foot to go with him. Dominant win over 1700m here on Oaks Day when doing something similar and while I doubt he’ll get the cheap lead here, he’s tough, hard fit and in ripping form.
Big Danger: 7 Loyalty Man (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the only threat to Mihany now that Burning Front is out. Did a really good job here two back behind Boom Time during Cup Week before going to the Wodonga Cup where he was wide most of the way but proved too classy for his rivals. Gets the cheap run behind the speed and he will be strong late no matter what the tempo is.
Long Shot: 5 Loophole (Bet Now: $17.00) resumed in that race won by Mihany at Pakenham and he was out the back in that race, so just forgive and forget he went around. In saying that, he did stick on well nearer the inside, which was quicksand that afternoon. Trained at Flemington and comes here with good upside.
Race Nine (17:55) : Scamanda Handicap (78) 1100m
Back Me: He isn’t the most reliable horse, but I’ll go with 10 Wolf Cry (Bet Now: $3.00). This former Team Snowden trained galloper is now with Stuart Webb after racing during the Summer/Autumn, highlighted by a dominant win in the Magic Millions Maiden. Trials/jump outs have been sharp to the eye, in particular his Stony Creek trial. Happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: If you backed 1 Stellar Collision (Bet Now: $2.40) first up at the Valley, it was just an absolute nightmare watch. Looked to be going easily before attempting to make his move but as soon as he tried that, he got smashed and lost complete momentum, going on to run last. Big drop in depth and lone run at Flemington saw him finish third to Super Cash and Sooboog. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 5 Danger Close (Bet Now: $41.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming on Pakenham Cup Day and he was a bit disappointing to the eye when down the track behind Tykiato, but his trials leading in were solid and keep in mind he does have a horror fresh record. Runs much better second up and his lone Flemington win saw him beat Group l performer Lord Of The Sky.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Mihany
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Boom Time
VALUE: Race Six Number 1 General Truce
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 15
Leg Three: 3, 7
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 14
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