Ascot plays host to a strong eight race card on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:53) : Amelia Park Beef Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Fremond (Best Odds: $5.50) is on the back up after racing over 1500m here last Saturday where he sat outside a slow tempo and kicked on strongly but had to settle for third to two quality youngsters, The Blue Nipper and Blackwood. This looks easier, hard fit and back to 1400m should only be beneficial.
Big Danger: 3 Reverend John (Best Odds: $7.50) resumes here for Stan Bates after a pretty solid Winter prep. Hasn’t really set the world on fire at the trials, but he gets the services of Pike, which is a big tick.
Roughie: 5 Black Dynamite (Best Odds: $4.00) debuted over 1100m here a fortnight back and closed off nicely late to run second to Rhi’s Rocket, beaten just under a length. Should only naturally improve from that, he draws better and Parnham sticks.
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Race Two (16:33) : Perth Racing Young Membership Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Peacemaking (Best Odds: $19.00) resumed over 1500m at Pinjarra a month back and led all the way for a super win considering the circumstances. Month between runs here and up to the city level isn’t easy, but there is a bit to like about him.
Big Danger: 7 Rosewood Hill (Best Odds: $3.20) ran over this trip at Pinjarra and brokethrough for a well deserved maiden win. She had performed well in town prior, so back up to this level won’t be an issue, and she should take some beating.
Roughie: 6 Merrijig (Best Odds: $4.80) worked home well late in the piece when running fourth to The Blue Nipper over 1400m here two weeks ago. Looks suited up to the mile and gets well weighted.
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Race Three (17:13) : Lunar Raceday Next Saturday Handicap (78+) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Carry The Nation (Best Odds: $4.80) for me to turn the tables on Vengabus. He ran a closing second to that horse here last time out, and though he meets the winner 0.5kg worse off at the weights, he has a stack more upside.
Big Danger: 1 Vengabus (Best Odds: $2.80) has really found a purple patch of form in recent times, winning three of his last four, including that race mentioned above. The 1600m is the worry, but he looks the leader.
Roughie: 8 Cougar Express (Best Odds: $7.00) is on the back up from last Saturday over 2100m where he tried hard but was no match for Dark Alert. He only carries 51kg here and will no doubt pour the pressure on given he will run a very strong 1600m.
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Race Four (17:49) : Bush Fire Appeal Raceday February 20 Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 2 Secret Nova (Best Odds: $7.50) was given a lovely front running ride by Jason Brown to win here a month back, winning by over a length in strong fashion. Wide gate is the worry, but if he can overcome that, he’ll go close.
Big Danger: 1 Marchand (Best Odds: $4.60) attempted to lead all the way over 1100m here a fortnight back and gave plenty of cheek, but was nailed in the last couple of strides by in form galloper Volkhoff. Back to 1000m suits, he looks the leader and will be there for a long way.
Roughie: 8 Tenterden (Best Odds: $14.00) ran in the midweeks last Wednesday and was luckless when running fifth to Red Reigns given he got not much room in the straight. If the breaks go his way here, he can ambush them late.
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Race Five (18:25) : Happy Waitangi Day Handicap (72+) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Already Famous (Best Odds: $3.70) resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back and stuck to the task quite gamely when running fourth to in form galloper Vengabus, who will be a leading chance earlier on in the program. Pike remains on, which is a good lead, and this is a winnable assignment.
Big Danger: 3 Bayatorio (Best Odds: $11.00) is on the back up from last Saturday over 2100m where he ran a game third to form gallopers Dark Alert and Cougar Express. Back to 1800m suits and he does drop a bit in depth.
Roughie: 4 Cougar Knights (Best Odds: $3.00) ran over 1800m here a couple of weeks back and worked home well late in the piece when third to Danish Delight, beaten a length. Should prove hard to beat here now that he has found some decent form.
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Race Six (19:00) : Functions At Ascot Handicap (72+) 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Volkhoff (Best Odds: $4.40) has been excellent this time in, winning three from three, the latest a fortnight back over this track/distance when producing a brilliant turn of foot. He’ll get back again, but the speed will be on, and he should sprout the wings required to win.
Big Danger: 5 Miki Two Toes (Best Odds: $18.00) resumed in that race mentioned above and his closing effort was outstanding also, running fifth, beaten just under two lengths. He will be similar to the top tip in the sense he’ll get back and charge late, but he has upside and meets the top tip 2kg better at the weights.
Roughie: 1 Benito (Best Odds: $8.00) ran a close second in that same race where he led all the way and looked home, but was nabbed in the final stride. Meets the winner 1.5kg better and does look the leader.
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Race Seven (19:40) : Stone Motherless After The Races Handicap (1MW) 2100m:
Back Me: 14 Paris Dream (Best Odds: $2.70) is on the back up from last Saturday when racing over the mile here and working home well late when running a close up third to Muskets At Dawn. Up in trip looks perfect and Pike takes over.
Big Danger: 13 Juicing Carrots (Best Odds: $8.00) ran over the mile here on January 20 and worked home alright late but was no threat to the eventual winner Zoetomtaya, beaten half a length. Up in trip looks a slight query, and Pike jumps off, but the ability is definitely there.
Roughie: 4 Magic Rocket (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed over 1200m here and was a little bit of an eye catcher late in the piece behind Smarty Wilson. 1200m to 2100m would seem impossible, but Fred Kersley is one of the best at these scenarios.
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Race Eight (20:20) : Amelia Park Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: Former Sydney sider 11 Pounamu (Best Odds: $3.00) was simply outstanding at his WA debut, savaging the line late in the piece to win his maiden very impressively. Destined for better things, and with natural improvement, he’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 2 Eurosun (Best Odds: $14.00) resumed over 1200m here and stuck on well late in the piece when a close up second to Conjob, beaten narrowly. Gets a little bit of weight relief, fitter and strikes a winnable race if the top tip is off his game.
Roughie: 15 Drive On Ice (Best Odds: $14.00) started short odds last time out over 1300m at Pinjarra and started short odds. He justified the quote and produced a brilliant finishing burst. Harder here, but has a stack of upside and will be strong at the end of 1400m.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Paris Dream
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Volkhoff
VALUE: Race Two Number 3 Peacemaking
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9
Leg Three: 13, 14
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 11, 15
$50 Investment= 5.55% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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