The Perth Summer Racing Carnival continues this Saturday at Ascot, with the highlight being the final Group l event of 2015, the Kingston Town Classic (1800m). The weather is fine, the track is slow (6) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:29) : Ascend Sales Trophies-Aquanita Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Arcadia Dream (Best Odds: $1.35) was a bad victim of the track bias here a fortnight back in the WA Guineas (1600m) when badly held up near the inside and pretty much went to the line under a hold behind London Line. Track should play more fair, and with normal luck, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: Fremond (Best Odds: $13.00) found a thin race last Saturday here and despite sitting wide no cover on speed, he proved too good for his rivals in what should be a real confidence boost for this horse. Now that he has won, he can go right on with it.
Roughie: Outside these first two, the race falls away IMO. Perhaps Saxophonist (Best Odds: $21.00)? Only because champion hoop Douglas Whyte takes the steer and he can improve horses many lengths.
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Race Two (16:09) : Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic 1400m:
Back Me: Pushin’ Shapes (Best Odds: $7.00) started bolters odds in the Placid Ark (1200m) but he looked a little unlucky, getting held up at times in the straight before eventually getting clear and working home strongly late. 1400m is ideal, draws well and he does get a weight pull on the winner.
Big Danger: Let It Slip (Best Odds: $3.00) defied the track bias to win that Placid Ark, sitting last in the run before peeling out and letting down hard out wide to get the job done. She will lap up the 1400m, and the forecast is for rain, keeping in mind she is by one of the best wet track sires in Australia.
Roughie: Lite’n In My Veins (Best Odds: $3.80) debuts here for Fred Kersley off the back of an impressive trial win at Lark Hill where the time was sharp, and Douglas Whyte has been booked, so keep tabs on market moves.
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Race Three (16:49) : Professionals Granger Clark Handicap (66+) 1600m:
Back Me: Looks a good race for Dark Alert (Best Odds: $4.40), who was given a peach from Pike to win here over 1400m three weeks back, beating home Stocks, who franked the form by winning last Saturday over the mile. Race looks thin outside this gelding, so I’ll go with him.
Big Danger: Tales Of Summer (Best Odds: $7.00) has won two on the trot and goes into this in career best form. He draws a good barrier which will give him the run of the race and if he can go as well has he has in his last two runs he will be right in the finish.
Roughie: Galaxy Prince (Best Odds: $34.00) drops in grade here and has the ability to match it with a field like this although he will need to return to his best. He will carry the top weight in the race but if he can run up to his effort at Belmont five starts ago i think he can cause a big upset.
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Race Four (17:29) : Perth Cup January 2 Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: Stocks (Best Odds: $6.50) has been very good to me and the followers this time in, so I see no reason to jump off him. He ran over the mile last Saturday and it was his turn of foot that got him home. Back to 1400m is perfect and draws well yet again.
Big Danger: Cosmic Storm (Best Odds: $5.50) resumed over 1100m here a month back where she worked home strongly late to run second to Wobblegong, beaten narrowly. Should improve big time off that, and Pike remains on.
Roughie: Sujet (Best Odds: $14.00) pulled up lame after running in the Winterbottom (1200m) behind Buffering. This is a big, big leap down in grade, and provided he has recovered well, he will take some beating with Douglas Whyte on board.
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Race Five (18:05) : G.A. Towton Cup 2200m:
Back Me: Rebelson (Best Odds: $3.90) in a very thin race. He ran in the Tatts Cup (2100m) where he wasn’t suited by the on speed bias when fifth to Dubai Escapade. The big key here is Pike back on, and he rides the horse very well.
Big Danger: Young Lionel (Best Odds: $3.20) ran third in the race mentioned above, and he seemingly had his chance given he was leading and got some cheap sectionals early on. Looks the leader here again, and with less depth engaged, he should take some beating.
Roughie: Global Flirt (Best Odds: $16.00) often takes a few runs to find his best so i am happy to overlook his two runs this preparation. He has plenty of ability on his day and looks to be at a good price in the race.
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Race Six (18:40) : Jungle Dawn Classic 1400m:
Back Me: Ideal Image (Best Odds: $1.90) tried hard when resuming in the Jungle Mist (1200m) but just failed to pick up the leader Sheidel, who crawled in front, so the effort of Ideal Image to finish as close as she did was enormous. Looks the only threat to the top tip.
Big Danger:Fashion Princess (Best Odds: $7.50) wasn’t suited by the slow tempo in the Carbine Club yet worked home alright late when fifth to Neverland. Back to her own sex now, and third up, she should be ready to peak.
Roughie: Keysbrook (Best Odds: $21.00) doesn’t win very often but she is definitely a quality galloper on her day and with a drop in grade she could test this small field at a good price.
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Race Seven (19:15) : R.S. Crawford Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: Silverstream (Best Odds: $2.20) looks one of the better bets on the program. Her run in the Winterbottom (1200m) was outstanding behind Buffering and outside Waterman’s Bay, she was the best of the closers. 1000m here suits and she should be powering home.
Big Danger: Shining Knight (Best Odds: $5.00) also ran in the Winterbottom and was another that closed off very strongly late to run sixth, beaten just over two lengths. Terribly weighted here, but no doubt he will be the strongest at the end of 1000m.
Roughie: Flytego (Best Odds: $26.00) will start bolters odds given he is rising in grade, but he is a horse who will get back, and given they’ll be going track record speed here, he will look to charge late and could well sneak a place.
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Race Eight (19:50) : TabTouch Kingston Town Classic 1800m:
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for the German galloper Magic Artist (Best Odds: $4.40). He was unbelievable in two runs during Cup week when a luckless fourth in the McKinnon (2000m) then made up ground in the worst part of the track behind Turn Me Loose in the Emirates. Gate one, Oliver on board, firmer track…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: Really surprised to see $6 on offer for Delicacy (Best Odds: $6.00), but I think she will start longer. Her run in the Railway (1600m) was the best of the beaten brigade considering she was back near last in a race where they ran nearly sub 34 for the final 600m, so she really had no hope. Drawn poorly here, but she will be at her peak here and I suspect she’ll get the drag up behind one of her stablemates.
Roughie: The big overs in the race looks to be Neverland (Best Odds: $15.00), who was just so impressive in winning the Carbine Club (1400m) and the time was outstanding. Harder here, but champion hoop on board, and in terms of turn of foot, there is none better in the race.
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Race Nine (20:30) : Amelia Park Handicap (66+) 1200m:
Back Me: Vengabus (Best Odds: $26.00) will jump at a big price in what looks to be a very winnable race on Saturday. Trainer Simon Miller has been in hot form with his runners of late and his fresh form says he can win and if he can get an easy lead i think he will be hard to run down.
Big Danger: Fuld’s Best (Best Odds: $8.00) is a quality galloper on his day and looks to be terrific value in the wide open race. He ran a big race in the Jungle Mist Classic last start and the drop back in grade will see him be hard to beat.
Roughie: Next Contestant (Best Odds: $31.00) comes out of the Sean Casey stable which has been flying lately with a 33% strike rate and at the big odds he looks to be the blowout chance in the race. He drops in grade and in weight and will go close.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 11 Silverstream
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Magic Artist
VALUE: Race Eight Number 12 Neverland
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 1, 11
Leg Three: 1, 4, 10, 11, 12, 16
Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 12, 14, 19
$50 Investment= 34.72% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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