The first Group l of the new season in Sydney comes around this Saturday with the running of the premier stallion making race in New South Wales, the $1 Million Golden Rose (1400m). Since it was first run in 2003, some outstanding gallopers have saluted, including Forensics, Denman and last year with Zoustar. The 2014 shapes up to be an absolute ripper with a great sense of depth engaged.
The good racing doesn’t stop there, with other feature races being the $200,000 Group ll Theo Marks Stakes (1400m) and two $125,000 Group lll events, the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) and the Sheraco Stakes (1200m).
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Race One (12:40pm) : The Paslode Handicap (73) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky mares’ race to kick off the program. Britalia Kate (Best Odds: $7.50) hasn’t greeted the judge in a fair while, but continues to race well, as we saw last week at Canterbury with her fighting third to Echo Gal and Niobe. She was a beaten horse, but surged between that pair and only went down narrowly. She steps up to Saturday grade for the first since the start of the year, but she strikes a winnable race and Bowman sticks.
Big Danger: Sensualism (Best Odds: $4.80) continued her ripping form this campaign when she fought hard at Warwick Farm to run third to Copy on a bottomless surface. She was very impressive two back at this track, and on firmer footing, and both of those elements she gets here, and a nice weight pull on Copy.
Roughie: It might have only been a Class 3 at Goulburn, but the win of Wings (Best Odds: $11.00) was outstanding given she was last in the run and the leaders absolutely crawled in front, and seemingly gave the back markers no hope at all, but this mares class, despite carrying 59kg, proved too good late. Deserves another crack in town and handles all conditions, so she has to be rated as a chance.
$500 Britalia Kate Free Bet
Race Two (1:15pm) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (80) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Martian (Best Odds: $4.60). Former UK galloper now with Tony McEvoy who made his Australian debut Hawkesbury a fortnight back and really caught my eye with his closing stages, really attacking the line with purpose in a race which didn’t suit him. Up to a more ideal trip now, fitter, drawn well, firmer track and the stable is having a good run at present. And to be honest, it isn’t the greatest benchmark 80 going.
Big Danger: Lucky Lucky Lucky (Best Odds: $8.00) has had two runs back from a spell and has been quite good at each outing. First up at Warwick Farm he made up a stack of ground late to run fifth to Perfect Weapon, then came here and again got a long way back before savaging the line for third to Black Revolver. Up to 1800m suits and is still relatively new in the prep, so despite the awkward barrier, he’ll prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Al Ahmar (Best Odds: $18.00) earned himself a crack in town thanks to a complete carve up of his rivals at Canberra last time out, winning under double wraps in a race that did have city form, so don’t be worried by the fact his last start was away from the city, and with the claim for Jess Taylor, the gelding gets in very well at the weights for a horse who has won 12 races and placed in another 21.
$500 Martian Free Bet
Race Three (1:50pm) : Sportsyear Sprint Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: All Cerise was quite disappointing when she resumed at Randwick a month back behind I’ve Got The Looks after being well supported in pre post betting. She went back to the trials last week and looked much better when placing under a good hold from Bowman, who is riding Murder Of Crows (Best Odds: $5.50) instead, so make of that what you will, but I know this mare, when right, is stakes class.
Big Danger: Woodbine (Best Odds: $4.80) comes back to racing after a pretty strong Autumn prep, which saw him compete alongisde the likes of Dissident, Traitor and Japanese mare Hana’s Goal. Trials have been encouraging in readiness for his return to racing, his unbeaten fresh and draws to camp on the speed. Hard to hold out.
Roughie: Boss Lane (Best Odds: $10.00) is another three year old now four who kicks off his prep in this race. He also performed very well in the Autumn, albeit not at the same level as Woodbine. In saying that, he has trialled much better than Woodbine to prepare for the first up run and only carries 52.5kg after the claim for Taylor Marshall, a 5kg weight swing over the Waterhouse colt.
$500 Murder Of Crows Free Bet
Race Four (2:25pm) : Theo Marks Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Kirramosa (Best Odds: $6.00) has been scratched at the past two Saturday meetings due to wet tracks, but the forecast for sunshine means she”ll run here, and will have to given she hasn’t raced since the Missile when an excellent sixth to Sweet Idea, who has since been Group l placed. Does that mean she may just need one more run before we see the best of her? Perhaps, but that first up run was too good after such a long layoff to dismiss completely.
Big Danger: Cluster (Best Odds: $3.20) resumed from a short let up with a fast finishing second to Weinholt over 1200m here a fortnight back, and the only that beat Cluster home was the rail hugging ride from Linda Meech on the eventual winner. He has always promised to perform at a high level and beyond, so it’ll be very interesting to see how he performs here moving forward into the Spring.
Roughie: Trainer Chris Waller wanted to scratch Bull Point (Best Odds: $3.40) from the Show County first up due to the heavy, but the stewards wouldn’t allow it. The horse nonetheless ran a ripper, closing from the back to run third to Terravista, beaten just over two lengths. The firmer track is a massive advantage, and it was at this meeting 12 months in the Golden Rose that he produced one of the runs of the entire Spring when coming from last to run third to Dissident. Big watch.
$500 Kirramosa Free Bet
Race Five (3:05pm) : Kingston Town Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Three, maybe four winning chances here for mine. The best of those appears to be He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $5.50). If you backed him last time out in the Premier’s Cup, you had to forgive him for his loss. It was his first run for a month, he was ridden upside down due to circumstances and I don’t think he was 100% comfortable in the going. On top of the ground now, fitter, meets Greatwood much better at the weights and will be ridden with cover this time.
Big Danger: If you have backed La Amistad (Best Odds: $2.80) for any of the big races, you would have had a beaming smile after her outstanding return to racing in the Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury, running third to Mr Chard in a thrilling finish. With Team Hawkes, when they set a good horse for good races over the longer distances, they generally give them time in the prep to get the runs under the belt and surge at the right time. This horse had a tummy on her prior to the Rowley, so to finish as close she did…she’s going to go close in whatever she contests.
Roughie: Greatwood (Best Odds: $4.80) is on the Metropolitan path and he proved that he’ll be a leading contender for the race with a dominant on speed win in the Premiers Cup, comfortably beating home the top tip. He again maps very well and should control the race, and despite creeping up in the weights, he’ll prove a tough nut to crack. Celtic Prince was just so so first up behind Entirely Platinum, then he was much better in the Premier’s Cup when sixth to Greatwood. He is also heading towards the Metropolitan and appears to have a stack of upside left. He’ll love a return to dry conditions and stepping up to 2000m. A must for exotics.
$500 He’s Your Man Free Bet
Race Six (3:45pm) : Sheraco Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Despite the lofty weight she has to carry, Catkins (Best Odds: $2.00) just looks the one to beat here. She performed so well during the Autumn, winning a couple of Group races, but that Group l just didn’t want to go to her, running third in the Coolmore and fourth in the Tatt’s Tiara. She flies fresh, has trialled very nicely, great record on her home track and is only against her own sex. Surely she just wins.
Big Danger: Nowra mare Belle De Coeur (Best Odds: $10.00) was fantastic during the Winter in Brisbane, continually stepping up to the place and running a very honest race for trainer Luke Price. She ran behind the likes of Cosmic Endeavour and Srikandi, so the form does read very well and gets in pretty well at the weights.
Roughie: Big watch on the return to racing of the Team Cummings mare Shamalia (Best Odds: $9.00). She was very good in her first prep during the Summer/Autumn, winning three, including a Listed race, before running behind quality gallopers such as Cosmic Endeavour and Sidestep. Trackwork leading up to this has been very good from all reports, as has her trials. If there is a mare to step up to the next level this carnival, Shamalia could very well be that mare.
$500 Catkins Free Bet
Race Seven (4:25pm) : De Bortoli Golden Rose 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Very, very hard to sort out with at least 10 genuine winning chances. I have been with Sarajevo (Best Odds: $15.00) since day one, and I’ll kick myself if I jump off and he wins, so I’m sticking fat with him here. He has been very good without much luck in two runs back from a spell. First up he had absolutely no luck in the Rosebud behind Scissor Kick, then he went to the Run To The Rose and didn’t handle the bog surface at all but still found a way to hit the line with purpose. He is definitely looking for 1400m and most importantly, a firm surface, and if the forecast is correct, he’ll get a dead track at worst, and if that is the case, based on his trial prior to resuming, he’ll take an absolute power of beating.
Big Danger: Bring Me The Maid (Best Odds: $4.00) showed she has come back in sensational order when she took care of a smart field in winning the Silver Shadow on a very heavy Randwick track three weeks back. The extra week off would have really helped her recover from the tough outing there, so that big advantage over her rivals that contested the Run To The Rose and Myng Dynasty will offset the history that it is very hard for fillies to win this race. Deserved top pick in betting and will prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Keep an eye on the Team Snowden runner, Shooting To Win (Best Odds: $16.00). He created a big impression on debut at Kembla before winning again at Canterbury. He was tipped out for a short break and resumed in the Up And Coming, where he never looked comfortable in the slush, and that was the same last week when second to Panzer Division. But what I like about him is the way he physically looks. He has a real look about him when he steps out on to the track, and that improved run last week gives him a chance here at a good price.
$500 Sarajevo Free Bet
Race Eight (5:05pm) : PJ’s Irish Pub Parramatta Handicap (80) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Reflectance (Best Odds: $6.00) gets her chance to atone for two luckless runs this prep. First up at Randwick she got badly held up at a vital stage when fourth to Target In Sight, then ran here a fortnight back and got too far back, along with not getting the clearest path when fifth to Weinholt. Drawn the paint now, won’t be too far away, and being third up, she looks ready to win for mine. Pretty keen on her.
Big Danger: Black Revolver (Best Odds: $5.50) powered home late to run a narrow second to Moral Victory over the 1500m here at the start of August, then made amends a fortnight later over the same track/distance when overhauling stablemate The Alfonso, who has since won. He appears best when he has his runs spaced, so the four week break between runs doesn’t concern me and he does tend to save his best for his home track.
Roughie: Any Day Will Do trialled really well at Warwick Farm prior to her first up failure at Randwick behind Rock Sturdy. She didn’t look 100% happy in the going so I can forgive her for that outing based on how slick the trial win was against top class horses. Firmer track helps and gets in so well at the weights after the claim for Jess Taylor.
$500 Reflectance Free Bet
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Catkins
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 11 Reflectance
VALUE: Race Seven Number 11 Sarajevo
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 8, 14, 15
$50 Investment = 30.86% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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