An absolute belter of a program has been assembled by the Newcastle Jockey Club for their second and final day of the 2012 Newcastle Cup Carnival this Thursday. The day will be highlighted by the $200,000 Group lll Tooheys New Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m), with Glencadam Gold expected to continue his winning ways since arriving in Australia. The former English stayer is even money to take the prize.
The other blacktype race on the meeting is the $100,000 Listed Patinack Farm Tibbie Stakes (1400m). The Segenhoe owned pair of Miss Stellabelle and Irish Dream, who provided the quinella in the Mona Lisa on Wyong Cup Day, are the top two in betting alongisde Nocturnelle for the all conquering Chris Waller.
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Race One: Travemanagers Handicap (C2) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Boston Tea for the Snowden camp. Had three runs during the winter and although he didn’t win, he raced well. His last run was on July 31 at Kembla where he missed the start, sat last, hugged the fence and worked home for seventh, beaten just over two lengths. Has been freshened, trialled last week in a hot heat and wasn’t fully tested. He does race best when fresh and on his best form, he’d go very close.
Don’t Back Me: Binalong Road looked very good when resuming over the 1300m here, but it was a very hot tempo in front of him and he had every right to run. Just want to watch him.
Big Danger: There was nothing wrong with Lightning Drew and his win at Wyong on Cup day where he sat outside Nash on Mount Nebo, was seemingly gone on the turn, but picked up and nailed that horse on the line. Can easily roll forward here and dictate and prove hard to run down on a track which does favour on-pace runners.
Roughie: Our Alby has raced ok without being spectacular of late. Gets out to 1400m which should suit and he has the inside draw. He might run a drum at big odds if he takes advantage of the barrier.
$250 Boston Tea Free Bet
Race Two: Jmc Building Maiden Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a hot maiden. Don’t really know where to look. I’ll go again with Darley in the shape of Complicate. Loved his first up run at Canterbury behind King Cobia, who looks all class. This one settled midfield with cover, peeled out, looked ready to win, but couldn’t hold off the powerful finishing burst of King Cobia. There is above average types here, but I think he has the race experience, fitness and the strong form lines. He goes on top for me in a very hard race.
Don’t Back Me: Really hard to say, because there are many first starters and they all have trialled very nicely.
Danger: The one that did catch my eye at the trials was Southern Alliance. Had two runs in the autumn at Wyong and placed on both occasions around some handy types. He has trialled twice to get ready for this and he has looked outstanding. Worst barrier (15) you could ask for, but he must be included.
Roughie: Oakfield Saint did far too much on debut at Cessnock when heavily backed. He has been freshened and bolted in at a recent barrier trial there. The other roughie is the first emergency Murder Of Crows. He was backed as if unbeatable when on debut at Wyong and he had no luck at any stage. He looked impressive in the trials and should be given another chance.
$250 Complicate Free Bet
Race Three: Peoplefusion Recruitment Maiden 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Got a special I think in Niobe. This former kiwi has had two Australian runs now for Kris Lees and has looked good in both runs without winning. One thing I have noticed with her is that she gives 110%. She doesn’t pack it in like some of her rivals here. From that barrier, I expect Shinn will ease and look for cover, then allow her galloping space to unleash on her spacious home track.
Don’t Back Me: Very keen on the top tip. I think just back her and you can’t go wrong.
Big Danger: There really isn’t a great deal of exposed form here, but the one out of the raced brigade who appears to have some ability is Ruby Love. Only had the one run in the autumn, a strong second at this track/distance. Was tipped out immediately. I liked her trial the other day at Warwick Farm. The time was nothing flash, but she went about her business nicely. And the booking of Cassidy is a good lead.
Roughie: Kim Dynasty probably did a bit too much work on debut at Canterbury. Jockey Peter Robl elected to roll forward on her and she sat wide early, eventually slotted in, but the effort told and she wilted late. With a colder ride, she can figure in the finish.
$250 Niobe Free Bet
Race Four: Ooh! Media Handicap (65) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Very keen on Exotic Escape to continue her winning ways. She has won all four starts this time in, all on the Acton track at Canberra. Doesn’t rise too much in depth here and the positive lead is that Cassidy has been booked. I expect her to lead, dictate and just about get home for the punters.
Don’t Back Me: Sailor’s Farewell probably has the wood on these in terms of class, but he is first up and does tend to get back in his races. I don’t think there’ll be enough pace for him to run on and win.
Big Danger: There is a bit of form surrounding Harada Bay. In her first and only campaign she raced alongside horses such as Villa Splendido, Calamba and Toydini. That does read well for a 65 event at Newcastle. Trialled nicely at Cessnock recently and looks primed for a first up performance.
Roughie: Eiredom is a must for the exotics. In his last nine starts, he hasn’t finished further back than fourth. Tough campaigner and looks well placed from the barrier and the claim helps immensely.
$250 Exotic Escape Free Bet
Race Five: Nbn 50th Anniversary Provincial Cup 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll be surprised if Net Worth doesn’t win here. Bolted in over the 900m here first up, then found the subsequent city winner Velrosso too strong late at Rosehill before being unlucky at Canterbury behind Written Consent where he sat last and worked home hard out wide. I think he can run the 1200m out and the $4 on offer does look very good.
Don’t Back Me: I just have some reservations about Vilakazi Street. All the facts suggest he’ll be hard to beat, but does he have the pace to keep up with them early first up? Class wise, he’s the best horse in the race, but I just want to watch him here.
Big Danger: Czar Of Yangery was a good thing beaten at Canterbury. Was forced to sit three wide on the speed yet kicked on well in the straight for third, and was hitting the line better than the two horses that beat him, despite them having easier runs in transit. Again he has an awkward barrier, but if he gets any sort of luck, he’ll be right in the finish.
Roughie: Komodo Blue doesn’t want it further than 1200m, as we saw last start at Doomben where he set a solid pace and held on for a nose win. He looks the likely leader here again and if Schofield can give him a cheap furlong or two, then he might pinch it.
$250 Net Worth Free Bet
Race Six: Patinack Farm Tibbie Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I can’t see Miss Stellabelle getting beat here and the betting reflects that view. Just fair when resuming behind Dystopia but she bounced back to her best form with a dominant win in the Mona Lisa over Irish Dream and She Goes To Rio and they all meet each other here with the same weight they carried in that race. Clearly she is the top tip.
Don’t Back Me: Irish Dream and She Goes To Rio for the reasons mentioned above. I can’t see them turning the tables.
Big Danger: New Beginning has been a revelation since joining the John Thompson yard. When trained by Wayne Wilkes, she was a solid type who won here and there. But since switching stables, she has really put it all together, with wins at Warwick Farm and Rosehill with a fourth behind Strawberry Boy in between. From the nice draw, Reith could position her a touch closer without bustling her and still allowing her to unleash that powerful finishing burst that she showed at Rosehill.
Roughie: General’s Sniper at $16 seems big overs for a mare that will run a very strong 1400m. She tried her guts out when second to Crafty Irna in the La Gioconda (1600m) at Wyong. She should get the soft run on the fence and work home well. Definitely a first four hope.
$250 Miss Stellabelle Free Bet
Race Seven: Tooheys New Newcastle Gold Cup 2300m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet of the carnival here in Glencadam Gold. Class horse, very impressive winner last start at Rosehill and that form has held up with Stout Hearted bolting in last Saturday. Nash will send this bloke to the lead, he’ll roll along in front, and he’ll win. He is just thrown in at the weights and the $2 on offer is superb.
Don’t Back Me: You’d be silly to back anything to beat Glencadam Gold. He just looks the winner.
Big Danger: Kelinni is ultra consistent. I doubt he can beat Glencadam Gold given that Julienas, the stablemate of Glencadam Gold, beat Kelinni last start and Glencadam Gold, I think, has a few lengths on Julienas. I still think Kelinni will run his usual honest race and he should fill the placings.
Roughie: I’m not surprised that Brian Smith has brought Rothera here given how well he raced last weekend behind Lucky Luna and co. The last time he raced at this sort of trip was last years Ballarat Cup where he finished second to Domesky. He’ll sit back and attack the line as he did last Satruday.
$250 Glencadam Gold Free Bet
Race Eight: Broadmeadow Mile (75) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m tipping the kiwis to take out the last race with Dollario for Jason Collett and John Sargent. I thought he was very good in defeat at Mudgee in their cup race. He was trapped deep early, so Blake Spriggs elected to roll forward and sit outside the speed. He hit the front at the top of the straight and looked the winner for a few strides, but couldn’t hold off Servimoss. Another awkward barrier here, but there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pace engaged. He gets a great chance to record his first win on Aussie soil.
Don’t Back Me: Bit surprised as to why Many Stars is $7. I think he deserves to be much longer given he hasn’t done much this time in. Happy to put a line through him.
Big Danger: Admiral’s Cup was very stiff at Wyong. Was forced to sit deep throughout, pushed out near the carpark on the home turn and fought on strongly to only go down by a half length. With a softer run here, he can finish over the top.
Roughie: Zarbu does look the leader in the race. He pulled his head off in the same race that Dollario contested when he led. He wasn’t beaten far and with better manners, as well as no weight on his back, he could be a sneaky chance.
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