Last year’s Festival saw six horses starting at under 2/1 with Cheltenham Odds and such big names as Dunguib, Garde Champetre, Master Minded and Kauto Star all bit the dust. With only Quevega (6/4) and Big Buck’s (5/6) successful from that group last year it was a poor Cheltenham Festival for short-priced backers.
That record set us thinking about the overall wisdom of supporting horses priced at under 2/1 in general at the Cheltenham Festival and if that would have made you an overall profit. Since 1980, a total of 134 horses have been dispatched at under 2/1 with 54 winning (40.3% strike rate) and producing a level-stakes loss of -£6.27.
That loss increasing if you purely look at the record of supporting odds-on favourites during that identical timeframe – just 11 odds-on favourites have been successful from 25 qualifiers in that time.
Taking a look at the record of this group decade-by-decade shows that since 2000, thanks to a golden spell between 2002 and 2007 when there were 15 winners, the last 10 years have been profitable for short priced backers. But are the figures skewed by that golden period and should we be wary of short prices overall at the Cheltenham Festival?
We think that the answer to both of those questions is yes and to be backing at those sort of prices at one of the most competitive National Hunt meetings of the year you do need everything in your favour and we would be wary of supporting horses in general at those prices.
The last three Festivals have seen just 5 winners from 17 qualifiers and if you had supported all of the qualifiers you would have made a level stakes loss of 6.19,
As things stand at the moment in the ante-post lists this is starting to look a very competitive Festival and horses likely to start under 2/1 look few and far between, interestingly the two successful horses that stated under 2/1 last year look set to do so again this – Quevega and Big Buck’s. The former looks to face an easier task this year whereas the latter has a major challenger in Grands Crus.
Gold cup betting pundits are sure they will both start at under 2/1 but given the overall record of horses at those prices one of not both could be vulnerable. Recent history suggests that you should take great care when supporting short-priced horses at the Cheltenham Festival.
