The rain came last week and changed things dramatically. For this week the track is still rated slow as of today but we expect to be racing on a dead track at Rosehill for the Rosehill Guineas day by Saturday.
Rosehill Guineas:
Shamrocker taking out the 2011 Australian Guineas - Photo by Steve Hart
The main event on the card is the Group One Rosehill Guineas where our traders think Australian Guineas winner Shamrocker represents terrific value and can make it two in a row. Oliver takes the ride so connections lose nothing there and the step up to 2000 metres is no problem, she ran second in the Oaks in the spring over 2500.
As his name suggests Jimmy Choux is “well heeled” but the shoes don’t fit here. The kiwi comes over after winning the NZ Derby but that race was on a very heavy track over 2400 metres so coming back in distance isn’t ideal. The big dangers to Shamrocker are Light Brigade and Absolutelyawesome. Both are looking for the distance with Light Brigade likely to lead and Absolutelyawesome to come from mid-field or further back. Retrieve is also on the way to the Derby so will be charging at the line.
Jimmy Choux $3.70, Absolutelyawesome $4.60, Retrieve $5.50, Light Brigade $6.50, Shamrocker $7.50, Masquerader $15.00, Anacheeva $16.00, Others $26.00 & above.
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Ajax Stakes:
Race 5 is the Ajax Stakes and our traders expect dual acceptor Brazilian Pulse to accept for the Keith Nolan Classic, race 3. The race looks set up for those down in the weights that have more scope for improvement. The Gai Waterhouse trained Pureness looks a good thing. He ticks more boxes than a ‘quality control officer at Coles’ with Boss going on, the blinkers back on and just 52 kg.
Under The Eiffel is an improving three year old who may need more speed in the race to utilise his acceleration, but is the main danger. Our Traders like Trader to improve after a forgive run at Newcastle.
Pureness $2.80, Brazilian Pulse $5.50, Under The Eiffel $5.50, Trader $11.00, Lebrechaun $13.00, Snow Alert $13.00, Others $15.00 & above.
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Pago Pago Stakes:
Race Two is the Group Two Pago Pago Stakes for two year old colts where Golden Archer dominants the betting. Given he has won five of six he deserves to be those odds and is the horse to beat. You’re Canny defeated one time slipper favourite Karuta Queen in the Black Opal stakes, but our traders have declared him a Γ’β¬Λlay’.
The time and sectionals weren’t impressive and the form looks weak. Written Consent has talent and was unlucky last start. First starter Salade is a big watch as it is rare for Bart Cummings to give a horse its first start in a Group race.
Golden Archer $2.20, You’re Canny $5.50, Written Consent $6.50, Salade $9.00, Flying Zero $13.00, Exceed And Exalt $13.00, Boys On Tour $13.00, Others $21.00 & Above.
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Magic Night Stakes:
The two year old fillies go around in the Group Two Magic Night Stakes (Race2)and our traders are keen on the Lee Freedman trained Retsina. Not a lot to like about the drink but a lot to like about how she hit the line first up in Melbourne. The rise in distance to 1200 metres is perfect and she will be storming home.
Pane In The Glass is our Lay of the day. She didn’t have much luck last start but at the line Streama was going better and she appeals as the danger to Retsina. Points to note are that McEvoy has chosen to ride Disputes over Aerobatics and Altar and Nash Rawiller has been commissioned to ride John O’Shea’s first starter Quackquack. It could be a case of Γ’β¬Λduck surprise’ at long odds.
Pane In The Glass $3.70, Retsina $3.70, Streama $4.40, Altar $10.00, Disputes $11.00, Aerobatics $13.00, Quackquack $21.00.
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Rosehill Snapshot:
- Best Bet – Pureness.
- Best Roughie – Jerezana.
- Lay of the day – Pane In The Glass.
- Tap on the Shoulder – Bart Cummings must have an opinion of Salade (race 2) to start him in a Group Race.
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