Tomorrow at Rosehill sees the running of an all black type card, with the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) the feature.
Just Horse Racing’s Sydney writer Andrew Hawkins has analysed the fields at Rosehill to give you the best guide to tomorrow’s racing.
Read his previews below:
Race 1 – Listed Darby Munro Stakes (1200m)
Competitive three year old race to kick off the day. The best 1200m horse in the race is undoubtedly MILITARY ROSE, I’m just not sure whether she was just a two year old who hasn’t gone on. Still willing to give her a chance though, especially considering she was being primed for a clash with Black Caviar. For second, go with SCARF. The lesser rated of Darley’s two, but Peter Snowden sounded especially bullish about his chances. He’s been gelded since his last prep. For third, I’m going to go for one of the outsiders in LEVI’S CHOICE. Would normally not have a Galileo over 1200m in my top 4, but his ratings are strong and he’ll be flashing home at the end. Must include in multiples. Throw in the favourite PALOMARES for fourth, just ahead of MAC CHOIS and TORIO’S QUEST.
Race 2 – Group 2 Pago Pago Stakes (1200m)
Last chance for the boys to qualify for the Slipper. I’m going to go for a first starter. SALADE has trialled impressively for Bart Cummings. He’s already had another Starcraft colt, Do You Think, win dominantly. Big ask at his first start but if anyone can get him there, Bart can. He qualified Related through the Todman at his first start in 2008. GOLDEN ARCHER easily has the best form, and his win in the St Albans Stakes (1000m) at Moonee Valley last week was top notch. Logical pick of the raced bunch. Chris Waller has a big opinion of FLYING ZERO and I reckon with natural improvement from his first start behind Double Ranga, he could finish in the money here. Let’s go with Black Opal Stakes winner YOU’RE CANNY for fourth. Still reckon Karuta Queen was by far and away the best horse in the race and that it was match fitness that got him home. Might be a better place chance here.
Race 3 – Group 3 Keith Nolan Classic (1800m)
This race looks over bar the shouting. BRAZILIAN PULSE looks a class above, even with the big weight. She just wins. CHULA VISTA has promised a lot in her career but is yet to deliver. Now she’s getting up to beyond a mile, I’m expecting something from her. Give her a go in the multiples. Others for multiples look to be DREAMWORKER, who’ll appreciate the distance but is still a maiden, Shamardal filly KIM HEAVEN and the Kiwi-bred HONOR NET. But I don’t think they’ll be beating the VRC Oaks winner here.
Race 4 – Group 2 Magic Night Stakes (1200m)
Now for the girls to have a final crack at making the Golden Slipper field. I was mightily impressed by RETSINA on debut. She scorched down the middle of the Flemington straight to come from 6-7L last to miss out in a blanket finish. Golden Archer makes the form look alright, although Kid Kobe was beaten a fair way last week. That said, she’s against her own sex here and rates highly. ALTAR is also having her second start here, and comes off a third at Flemington behind Triple Asset. Once again, think that with natural improvement she can play a part in the finish here. PANE IN THE GLASS was highly rated over the summer, and although she was unlucky she was a shade disappointing last start. Should still go okay here, just don’t know if she can win. AEROBATICS was also disappointing last start, but she was impressive on debut and is worth another chance. Whoever wins will deserve their place in the Golden Slipper.
Race 5 – Group 2 Ajax Stakes (1500m)
Plenty of pace on here which I reckon makes the favourite a lay. Going with the three year old UNDER THE EIFFEL. He’s come a long way in a short time, but I’ve been impressed with his runs and if the pace is on, it sets it up beautifully for him. For second, might go with National Sprint winner LEBRECHAUN. Seems to love this trip, and will appreciate a solid tempo too. PURENESS is by far and away the class in the race (well, he is now – Mentality would once have had that title, but he is not the same horse). If Mr Clangtastic and Trader don’t pressure him, he’ll be right in the race. Might throw in the topweight SNOW ALERT for fourth, while TRADER, MENTALITY, BRILLIANT LIGHT and even MR CLANGTASTIC have trifecta claims.
Race 6 – Listed Epona Stakes (1900m)
Have to be completely honest – I expected GALIZANI to be single figures. Maybe $8 or $9. So when they put up $17 with TAB Sportsbet, I rushed into take it. Incredble price. Did they not see her run last start? And it isn’t as though her form is terrible – when she ran over 2000m last prep, she was only 1.5L behind I’m Imposing, who ran 5th to Whobegotyou at weight for age in the Blamey Stakes! Her run last start had “back me next start” all over it, and so I have. My only concern is the pace in the race, and that is where FEMINA FASHION comes into calculations. She’s been disappointing for mine since her MM Stayers Cup win, but she is great at this distance range and one to follow. For third, I’m going with a roughie in SMALL MINDS. Has been disappointing, but she’s had two starts beyond a mile for a first and a fourth at Group 1 level! If she can get back to that form, she can go close. For fourth, might go with SHADOW MINISTER if she runs to her last couple of starts.. Definitely looks value in the race though, just a matter of finding it.
Race 7 – Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m)
The feature race of the day, the time honoured race features winners like Amounis, Phar Lap, Ajax, Tulloch, Wenona Girl, Eskimo Prince, Dulcify, Kingston Town, Strawberry Road, Naturalism, Octagonal, Tie The Knot and Eremein. Don’t know if any of these horses are in that class – actually, I’d be very surprised if they are. But it is definitely a good horse’s race. After looking at the speed, which looks minimal, and the breeding, I have to go with the Gai Waterhouse-trained LIGHT BRIGADE. Should lead here, and with the Tulloch Lodge polish, I reckon he can fight them off. Solid run in the Randwick Guineas, will appreciate the 2000m (he’s out of Gai’s former Zabeel mare Winning Belle, who ran 2nd to Makybe Diva in an Australian Cup), and I think he can do it. I actually feel bad, because I’m probably the biggest spruiker of Kiwi horses around (it’s rewarded me many times, but it has also burned me). I think JIMMY CHOUX is the best three year old to have come out of New Zealand in a long time, probably since Bonecrusher. I’m just worried what effect the bog track in the NZ Derby may have had on him. If he was a bit better odds I’d probably have him on top. But I will go with him for 2nd here and load up on the quinella. Third is anyone’s guess, might actually go with the other Kiwi in HE’S REMARKABLE. Promised plenty but his last two runs have been terrible. Common link though is that it was wet both times. And not just slightly wet – torrentially wet. Rosehill looks like it will be a dead track, might even be a Dead (4) come race time. For him, that will be a luxury. He reminds me of another Pentire in 2004 NZ Derby winner Xcellent. He hated it wet, and the knocks were on him after he ran poor races on wet tracks in the AJC Derby and Cox Plate. Maybe He’s Remarkable is the same? For fourth, I’m going to go with MASQUERADER. Has been racing like he wants 2000m, and he should get the suck run behind Light Brigade. Other trifecta chances are ANACHEEVA, RETRIEVE, PRAECIDO, ABSOLUTELYAWESOME and SHAMROCKER in a very even Rosehill Guineas. I’ll box the first four (Light Brigade, Jimmy Choux, He’s Remarkable, Masquerader) in a trifecta and hope it pays off.
Race 8 – Listed N.E. Manion Cup (2400m)
A good class staying race – just hope that The BMW holds up next week. My initial thought was, how far Once Were Wild? But she has a lot of weight, a horrible barrier and is jumping from 1600m to 2400m. Might be a case of back her next time. Instead I’ve gone with IRONSTEIN. Racing much more dour this campaign, has been crying out for 2400m. Meets Saint Encosta and Lorne Dancer a kilo better and is better suited back at Rosehill. For second, going with MOURAYAN. Not a hopeless effort in the Australian Cup and much better suited here. Ran a great race up here in The Metropolitan, and this is a similar race. For third, will go with ONCE WERE WILD. But as I said, it’s a case of backing her next time. For fourth, I’ve been waiting for a couple of years to see LORNE DANCER back at 2400m. Would prefer to see him do it at weight for age, but he can acquit himself well. Others I’m interested in are TABULATE, SAINT ENCOSTA and SANDBERG.
Race 9 – Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes (1200m)
Typical open fillies and mares race. Melito won this last year before winning the TJ Smith at her next start. I’m going for CHANCE BYE here. The reports were out early on last prep that she wasn’t going well, and so it proved on the racetrack. But the reports this time are completely different. She can win here…at good odds too. For second, go with DORF COMMAND. Just the type of mare I like, she’s always consistent and tries hard. Great place bet. ZINGALING had some good form last year and can win this fresh, while I reckon TRIM will be cherry ripe for this. But almost any filly/mare in the field can win it.
BEST BET: R7 Nos. 2 (Jimmy Choux) and 9 (Light Brigade) quinella
NEXT BEST: R3 No. 1 Brazilian Pulse
BEST VALUE: R6 No. 13 Galizani
Written by Andrew Hawkins
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