One of the better provincial meetings in Victoria is Cranbourne Cup Day and it comes around on Sunday afternoon, with a ten race card assembled. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:30) : Race One: Highview Accounting Services Handicap (64) 1300m:
Back Me: 1 Verstappen (Bet Now: $2.35) won like a star on debut on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to the McKenzie at the Valley where he was wide all the way in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner Kens Dream. Back to this level suits and he rates highly.
Big Danger: 6 Alaskan Sun (Bet Now: $4.50) resumed under the lights at Moonee Valley against the older horses and she was a little unlucky not to finish closer given she was held up a touch on the home turn when having plenty to offer. Small field here will ensure she gets clear running and she should take some beating.
Roughie: 3 Natch (Bet Now: $4.20) produced a big finish to break the maiden status last time out at Mornington where he was back in the ruck and it was an afternoon where it was slightly difficult to achieve what he did. He can go right on with it here.
Race Two (13:00) : Race Two: Wilson Medic Maiden Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Credible Witness (Bet Now: $16.00) is a former John Sargent galloper having his first run for Russell Cameron. He ran last time out at Mornington where he got back in the run and couldn’t really close off. He is better when ridden on speed, and if he brings his best form, he will prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Ranger Joe (Bet Now: $4.20) is a gelding resuming for Wez Hunter. He debuted here in July on a heavy track when making up ground late behind Chase The Horizon, who has since gone on to win in town, and the maiden has also produced several winners, so that form reads very well and the jump outs have been encouraging. Certainly one to watch.
Roughie: 5 Artistic Design (Bet Now: 9.00) is a Team Freedman youngster on debut here. He is by Master Of Design who has looked pretty good in a couple of jumpouts and a Cranbourne trial. Looks a handy type and will be a threat for sure.
Race Three (13:35) : Hertz Maiden Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 15 Queen Of Zealand (Bet Now: $5.50) is the first runner to be trained by Michelle Payne. This filly is a former kiwi who last ran in a Stakes race at Wanganui where she ran third. Second horse was La Luna Rossa, who runs in the Thousand Guineas, so the form reads very well for a race like this.
Big Danger: 10 Electric Aura (Bet Now: $3.10) resumed on the Pakenham Synthetic over 1400m where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but was pipped near the peg by Gran Tryphena. She should take really good benefit from that outing and is one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: 13 So Poysed (Bet Now: $3.30) resumed in the race mentioned earlier won by Natch at Mornington and this blokes effort was very good given he was last in the run. Draws much better here, so he can sit closer and is a definite threat.
Race Four (14:10) : Mypunter.com Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Violent Snow (Bet Now: $3.10) was an alarming drifter in betting when racing on her home track at Mornington where she attempted to lead all the way and just felt the pinch late. 1400m is ideal provided she is ridden with cover.
Big Danger: 3 Georgie’s Luce (Bet Now: $2.80) resumed in a handy race at Sale and she was a real eye catcher late, working home well between runners to run fourth to Bob Of The Head. She performed very well in town last prep and looks to have come back in excellent order.
Roughie: 1 Elle Excite (Bet Now: $10.00) ran over the short course at Mornington last week where she sat back in the run and stuck on okay out wide behind the impressive Kalashani Lad. Back to her own sex now and though drawn awkwardly, she can threaten with luck.
Race Five (14:45) : Patterson Cheney Isuzu Handicap (64) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Model Dragon (Bet Now: $2.20) is a talented mare that resumes for the Phillip Stokes yard. She won two from two to kick off her career during the latter part of the Autumn, including a win in town. Balaklava trial behind stablemate Entrancing was sharp and stable doesn’t bring them to Victoria, especially the provincials, for nothing.
Big Danger: 2 King Of The Ark (Bet Now: $7.50) has been given a 30 day freshen up since running a game fourth on the Geelong Synthetic in what looks as if it will be a hot form race. The debut win prior was outstanding and he gave the clock a nudge. He can figure here for sure.
Roughie: 3 Safariann (Bet Now: $17.00) resumed on September 21 at Sale where she had to lump 62.5kg and that was the settler behind Docs Hero. Gets really good weight relief here and she is a proven city performer. She can definitely bounce back here.
Race Six (15:20) : Cranbourne Hundai Handicap (64) 2025m:
Back Me: 1 Deckhand (Bet Now: $5.00) comes here after racing at the Valley a tick over two weeks ago where he sat back in the run and stuck to the task pretty gamely when running fourth to Knight Star. Hasn’t won for a little while, but this is a very winnable race for him.
Big Danger: 10 Resort (Bet Now: $26.00) drops a bit in depth after contesting that Knight Star race mentioned above where he sat near the tempo and fought on okay after attempting to lead all the way. I think ridden with cover he can bounce back.
Roughie: 9 Mostert (Bet Now: $26.00) was game in defeat two back at Sale before going to Wangarrata where he did a stack of work on speed and gave a really good kick but was bloused late by Sheckys Daughter. Firmer track will assist and for omen punters, he is the logical tip.
Race Seven (15:55) : De Bortoli Wines Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Curragh (Bet Now: $3.20) won well first up at Sale before going to Mornington where he chased hard late and fell short of picking up Bullish Stock, who is a Stakes winner, so the form reads quite well for this race, and the stable would love to dominate the Cup Day meeting on their new home track.
Big Danger: 6 The Chairman (Bet Now: $6.00) resumed over 1400m on the Pakenham Synthetic where he sat back in the run and closed off well late when running fourth to Inference, beaten four lengths. The trial win prior was outstanding and the step up to the mile should only be beneficial.
Roughie: 9 Hell On Earth (Bet Now: $17.00) was a non winner until he finally got the job done over the mile at Kilmore last time out where he looked in complete control of the race but for a moment he looked as if he was going to turn it up again. Now that he has won, he can go right on with it.
Race Eight (16:35) : TAB Cranbourne Cup 2025m:
Back Me: 2 The Cleaner (Bet Now: $4.60) looks the way to go here. He did his usual thing in front last time out in the Underwood and he was brave as always when sixth to Black Heart Bart. That’s the right form leading in and he should control the race and prove very tough to run down.
Big Danger: 7 Blizzard (Bet Now: $8.00) is a kiwi making the trip over and is a live threat. He ran in the Karaka Classic last time out at Pukekura when second. The third horse, Willie Cazals, won a Group l last weekend so the form reads very well and Oliver is booked.
Roughie: 10 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $8.50) was massive last time out over 1500m at the Valley. He got caught in an awkward spot at a vital stage and by then, the leader/winner Mr Individual was off and gone but he closed off hard late. 2000m is the query, but he has upside and a turn of foot.
Race Nine (17:10) : Procon Developments Apache Cat Classic 1000m:
Back Me: 5 It Is Written (Bet Now: $7.50) resumed in a 55 Second Challenge Heat at the Valley where he got back in the run before closing off hard late to run a close up fourth to Gun Case. Had no luck in this race last year but is going much better 12 months on.
Big Danger: The big query is 14 Orujo. (Bet Now: $7.00) Former Godolphin sprinter having his first run for local trainer Shawn Mathrick. Was a bit of a non winner once upon a time, but he raced quite consistently last prep in some quality races. He runs well fresh and I am sure he will be wound up to go well in the feature sprint on his new home track.
Roughie: 1 General Truce (Bet Now: $21.00) will appreciate the drop in depth after racing at Caulfield last time out and struggling behind a potential Stakes horse in Hellbent. This looks more his go and Mallyon jumps back aboard. Could be an improver at odds.
Race Ten (17:45) : GG Engineering Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 First Course (Bet Now: $15.00) has been freshened up since running over 1800m at Sandown and running a solid third to Mr Wonderful. The freshen up should do him wonders, he’s trained on the track and stable rarely leave the day without a winner.
Big Danger: 16 Natural Achiever (Bet Now: $5.00) was an alarming better drifter when making his Australian debut on the Pakenham Synthetic and that fluc was spot on as he really struggled in the straight behind Overberg. The form has held up very nicely through Grand Emperor and Fabulonh winning next start. Back on the turf and his home track, he has the scope to be a sharp improver.
Roughie: 11 Arctic Song (Bet Now: $15.00) has been given a little freshen up since failing on the Pakenham Synthetic in what could turn out to be a handy form reference. Form prior was on the Parks track in SA where he ran well without winning. Knockout hope here with luck.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 16 Rock 'N' Gold
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Deckhand
VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Credible Witness
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 12, 14
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 16
$50 Investment= 3.30% of the dividend if successful
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