9/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Beaufine Stakes day

The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Beaufine Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Beaufine Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Beaufine Stakes

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10 Diamond Command (Bet Now: $4.00) is a filly of some promise for Neville Parnham. Both career outings have come over 1200m here, the latest being two weeks ago when back near last in the run and closed off strongly when second to Paddy’s Lad. If the inside gate is used to advantage, she’ll take beating.

1 Paddy’s Lad (Bet Now: $2.35) could be a smart animal. Dan Morton trained juvenile that won the race mentioned above where he had a suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and away he went for a dominant win. Works more this time from a wide gate but plenty to like about that performance.

7 Forest Jump (Bet Now: $26.00) should be suited back to 1400m. He ran over the mile last time out and didn’t really fire a shot in a race not really run to suit him I feel. Paul Harvey takes over and Blinkers are on first time, so if he’s going to improve out of sight, it could well be here.

2 Sunnysilk (Bet Now: $5.00) has a good third up record and back miles in grade/depth, she’s the one to beat IMO. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago in a solid 66+ and worked home strongly from the back behind a handy sprinter, Nowhiteflag. Back to a very moderate 0MW race, if she’s within range 400m out, I think she just wins. Keen.

3 Famous Jurney (Bet Now: $5.00) will jump on the bunny and run a bold race. Is over a month between runs since racing at this track/distance where he led a good clip and gave a sight but just felt the pinch late. If this track has give in it, I think it brings him right into the mix as a threat.

4 Halatorian (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Roy Rogers trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Feb 19 when back in the run over 1400m at Ascot and worked to the line pretty well late in the piece without threatening. Resumes without a trial, but first up in town, I’d watch the market.

2 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $2.50) has found winning form and I think she can hold it. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where she appreciated a genuine tempo and in a race which came down to who was the best stayer, she clearly came out on top in a dominant display. This is no harder, she’s in form now, she’ll keep winning I think.

8 Sunsphere (Bet Now: $6.50) has been in work forever it seems but he continues to race at a pretty good level. He ran third to Reliable Star in that race mentioned above where he too was back in the run and made up good headway, albeit the winner had two lengths on him on the line. He’ll be around the mark again, though I doubt he turns the tables.

4 Fashion Queen (Bet Now: $5.50) is unknown at the trip but I think she’ll be okay at it. Ran over the mile here two weeks back and was quite good from the back when just over two lengths away from Olden. She has a pretty good strike rate overall, and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

7 Airlie Queen (Bet Now: $12.00) on top in a tricky race. Team Williams trained mare that ran over 1100m at Northam last time when wide with cover before peeling wider and letting down strongly when second to Astro Warrior, who had the A1 run in transit and was too good. Looks to be good speed here, so can see her getting three/four wide cover and the extra 100m is ideal.

5 Astro Warrior (Bet Now: $9.50) is a fascinating runner. First run for Hayden Ballantyne came in the race mentioned above where he was smashed in betting, screaming up of a first up plunge for the new stable, and the bets were landed. Whether there is upside or not, not sure, but he’ll get a suck run once again.

2 Cross Statement (Bet Now: $3.30) is racing in pretty good form for Jim Taylor. Ran over this track/distance two weeks back where he was off the speed, wide and worked home well when third to a handy horse in Puli. That run had plenty of merit. Hopefully there is petrol left in the tank. If so, he’s dangerous.

2 Bitofmerit (Bet Now: $2.20) is yet to tick the 1200m but there is every indication that he will eat it up. 3/3 to start his career, all three wins coming at 1000m. Resumed here two weeks ago when sitting back in the run and worked home strongly late to overhaul them and win. Tricky draw, but with luck, I think he has the finale to finish over the top.

5 Hardly Ever (Bet Now: $4.20) is a key threat. She’s hard fit and racing well, her latest run being over this track/distance three weeks back when a closing second to Sniparoochy, with intent in the ride making a difference. I think with a positive steer again, she’ll be hard to beat.

7 Red Fifty Three (Bet Now: $41.00) deserves another chance. He resumed two weeks back behind Bitofmerit where he led and looked to travel well, but as soon as he straightened up, he went backwards and was ordinary. His form from last prep reads very well, so he gets another look for me.

10 Frigid (Bet Now: $2.35) looks a really nice filly for Michael Grantham and she appears to have more scope than most. This filly resumed over 1300m here where she was absolutely trucking in the run under Parnham. Just a matter of pushing the button and once he did, the race was over. Fitter, up to 1400m, finds a relatively thin 1MW, confident she can win again.

4 Catalpa (Bet Now: $4.80) is a son of Rios for Team Williams that resumes. He hasn’t raced since April 16 at Ascot over 1400m when back off the speed and closing the race strongly when second to Kia Ora Star. Looked sharp in a Lark Hill trial win over 1100m. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

8 Rulelee (Bet Now: $7.00) can bounce back. Susan Olive trained mare that ran over 1300m here two weeks back and was very plain, but I am putting that down to being ridden far too warm, sitting outside the speed rather than getting eased back for a sit and launch late, which is what she did the start prior when winning. Off that, she’s a knockout hope here.

14 Galactic Storm (Bet Now: $3.80) on top. He was a month between runs when racing over 1400m here three weeks ago. He was back near last in the run in a fast run race, peeling wider late and launching late to just miss out on the win when a narrow second to Conquered Zone. Like him up to the mile and if he’s within range on the turn, he likely wins.

3 Crescent City (Bet Now: $7.00) is a key threat. Team Williams trained gelding that ran over this track/distance three weeks back and worked home well without really threatening behind an in form Billy Ray. Gets a significant jockey upgrade with Paul Harvey replacing Taj Dyson and if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

5 Brave Dream (Bet Now: $16.00) is an improver here. Talented mare that resumed over 1400m here two weeks back where she was in a very slowly run race, and given she was first up in some time, it was an awful race shape and she didn’t fire, understandably so. Might want one more, but she has a touch of quality.

7 Iseered Iseered (Bet Now: $5.50) is the map horse so he’ll do me in the Beaufine. He resumes for Luke Fernie, having not raced since the Cyril Flower back in February when down the track behind This’ll Testya, pulling up with heat stress. Resumes without a public trial, but you’d assume he’s wound up to go, and has gate one to get a beaut sit and the drag behind Mervyn.

12 Wilchino (Bet Now: $2.00) is a high quality mare for Dan Morton that resumes. She hasn’t raced the Winterbottom where they rode her far too warm to hunt up and lead, which ensured she was a beaten horse on the turn and dropped right out. She’s a 1000m specialist, so keen to see how she resumes.

9 Mervyn (Bet Now: $34.00) will jump on the bunny and run hard from the outset. He did that four weeks back here over the trip and tired late behind Bright Diamond. Unless there is a mad on speed bias, I doubt he wins, but could potentially cling onto a first four spot with his racing style.

With upside and a rise in trip, I am just leaning towards 10 Burnya To Survive (Bet Now: $8.00). He paraded like he would need the run when resuming two weeks ago over 1200m here and that’s how he raced. He got back in the run and made up headway without threatening. Fitter, up in trip and the big tick is that he has a gate to use to settle closer.

4 Chili Is Hot (Bet Now: $9.00) is bursting to win a race this time in. Has placed in both runs back from a break, the latest being a fortnight back when hailed as the winner when Harvey shot her through nearer the inside, only to be bloused late by Em Tee Aye. Hard fit, ideal map, she’s hard to beat.

If 1 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $13.00) was at her best, it would be no betting. She would spank these. Problem is she is nowhere near her best. Ran over 1200m here two weeks back where she got to near last in the run and did make up some ground, but never threatened. If she brings her best, she wins. Just whether you want to gamble on that is another matter hence why I only have her is a first four threat at best.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Sunnysilk

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Reliable Star

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 10 Burnya To Survive

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 10

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 14

Leg Three: 6, 7, 9, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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