9/6/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday where there are several quality events, including heats of several strong race series’. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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10 Propelle (Bet Now: $2.90) on top for me. The Ellerton/Zahra stable have this well bred filly, who was excellent on debut at Geelong before racing at Sale last Wednsday where Lane sent her to the front, controlled things beautifully and kicked strongly under pretty light riding I thought to win well, and the time compared very well relative to the meeting. Trained here and draws to get clear air.

4 The August (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Brent Stanley trained youngster who had admirers at odds when debuting in the Donald Classic and for the most part, he never really looked likely but gee his last furlong was very good and he got up. Harder here, but that race had some depth to it so I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well.

11 Steamboat Sally (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Team Hawkes trained filly who was confidently backed when debuting at Geelong but just got too far out of her ground but her finale was quite good I thought behind Cath’s Village, who won last Tuesday again to frank the form. Definite improver with luck in running for mine.

5 Falago (Bet Now: $7.00) comes through the Lycurgus race at Sandown two weeks ago. He was ridden a bit upside down on speed but despite that, he toughed it out very well I thought in defeat to be beaten a couple of lengths. Proven track/distance performer and with a more conservative steer, he’ll be more effective.

6 Lycurgus (Bet Now: $2.80) looks the obvious. Danny O’Brien has got this horse low flying at the moment. Last two wins have come over 2400m at Sandown and each win has seen him ridden a treat by Daniel Moor and Olly respectively, with Olly really lifting him over the line to win last time out. Flemington 2500m is a different beast, but he’s hard fit and in form.

4 Choysa (Bet Now: $11.00) could be a knockout if they go back to the on speed tactics. They rode him with cover in the Andrew Ramsden three weeks back here and he ran home okay but that isn’t his go. His thing is breaking their hearts from the front so if that eventuates here, he’ll prove hard to run down, as we’ve seen in the past.

6 Jessamin (Bet Now: $9.00) is a WaterBott trained filly who has had two runs back from a spell and looks to be going well enough. Attempted to lead all the way last time out at Hawkesbury and gave a solid kick but no match late for Sweet Victory, who won well last Wednesday at Warwick Farm, so the form reads well and she gets map favours.

9 Remember The Name (Bet Now: $4.60) on top in a tricky race for the fillies. She resumed down the straight here three weeks ago where she sat off the speed with cover and tried hard when second to the low flying Egyptian Bullet. Up to 1400m looks ideal, draws a sweet gate and can run well second up from a break.

2 Lady Of Crebilly (Bet Now: $10.00) is a daughter of Choisir for the Stokes team who was desperately unlucky first up when second to I Am Someone before racing on the Parks track a fortnight ago and having no luck at all behind Diamond Tycoon in a total forgive. 1400m on the big track looks an ideal recipe for her to bounce back.

5 Silvera (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Tony McEvoy trained gelding who has promised so much during his career but for the most part hasn’t lived up to the hype and expectation. Just got too far back I thought last time out under the lights at Cranbourne when second to Linguist. Third up here, no excuses now. Has to deliver and I’m confident he can go close.

3 Jaminzah (Bet Now: $8.00) is a hard horse to catch at times but when he finds form, he generally holds it, so the win at this track/distance three weeks back when well backed at odds should be respected. The run prior at huge odds behind Our Peaky Blinders at Caulfield was full of merit too, so I think he goes close with the right run.

9 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $11.00) is an Archie Alexander trained mare who is teasing to run well in town. She ran over the mile at Cranbourne last time out where she got off the speed and never really looked likely but her final 250m was very good late in the piece. 1800m on the bigger track looks ideal and she does have upside.

4 Sunday Escape (Bet Now: $8.00) will do me in a tricky sprint race. Andrew Murray trains this sprinter, who isn’t all that reliable in terms of being a prolific winner, but he does try hard and that is all you can ask for. He has a good record fresh, likes racing down the Flemington straight and have been told he’s recent jump out at home was very good.

1 Ability (Bet Now: $3.50) is a talented son of Reward For Effort that resumes for Henry Dwyer. Was formerly trained by Robert Smerdon and he hasn’t raced since the Spring Carnival when finishing a close up fifth at Caulfield behind Badajoz. Two trials leading in have been sharp and he is a bomb when racing down the straight.

8 Bullpit (Bet Now: $14.00) is an absolute speed demon for the Hayes/Dabernig team who is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where Callow didn’t hold him and with that, the horse led by half a dozen at least but just felt the pinch late to run fourth to Malibu Style. He’ll lead…last 75m will test.

I’ll give 14 Mantastic (Bet Now: $5.00) the nod. Former French galloper who makes his Australian debut for the Darren Weir team. His French form, subsequent form, has been outstanding and to my eye, his Werribee trial was very good. Given a good hit out, looked to move nicely and was eased down the final 50m while still hitting the line.

6 Painte (Bet Now: $9.50) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but his run last time was pretty good. He got a mile back from the draw at Sandown and was never a threat in an on pace dominated affair but he finished off quite well behind Highland Beat. Should be able to sit much closer in the run and the claim for Ethan Brown helps.

This looks the sort of race that 11 Dusty Jack (Bet Now: $27.00) could improve in. He resumed over 1200m at Sandown two weeks ago and just got a mile back in the run in a race that didn’t suit him at all behind stablemate Highland Beat. He has a fab second up record, and if he can get three wide cover, he’s a definite threat.

14 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $10.00) should take some beating against this lot. He resumed a fortnight back over 1400m at Sandown where he was up outside the speed and looked to travel well throughout but just ran out of condition late in the piece when third to Peacock. Not quite as dynamic second up, but he has the class and quality to run well from the gate.

7 Ozi Choice (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the potential big improver. Three weeks between runs since racing in the Straight Six here where he didn’t appear to handle the straight course and 1200m isn’t his go behind stablemate First Among Equals. Up to 1400m is his go and if he get on speed without doing too much work, he’s a live threat.

1 Amovatio (Bet Now: $10.00) isn’t one of mine but he’s racing in good form for the Chris Waller team without winning. Ran over 1400m at Flemington last time out and worked home pretty strongly I thought behind Land Of Plenty. Does tend to save his best here, and while wins are few and far between, I reckon he finds a suitable race here.

7 Mr Monaco (Bet Now: $9.50) looks well placed here by Richard Laming. He comes through the Mazzuro race at Sandown where he got a fair way back in the run but surged hard late to just miss out on picking up the winner. I think the Flemington 2000m will really suit this horse and he should take some holding out.

9 Black And Tan (Bet Now: $8.50) should love the rise to the ten furlongs. Just got a touch too far back last time out over the Sandown mile but you had to like the way she found the line when second to Truly Discreet. For mine she should have no drama with the ten furlongs, and she should get back and launch late.

8 Amerissa (Bet Now: $20.00) is an Americain filly for Darren Weir who is putting together a good little record. Didn’t beat much last time out at Mildura, but she chased hard and it’s a big tick for mine when a lightly raced filly can beat the older horses. She probably lacks the class, but has the staying pedigree and the hard 2000m run under the belt.

Slightly concerned coming back in trip, but 1 Despatch (Bet Now: $5.00) on form, looks the one. He comes through the Euclase during the Adelaide Carnival where he ran a close up fifth to I’ll Have A Bit, who of course ran a beauty in the Goodwood. He’s got the right form and draws the right part of the track. 1200m-1000m the only concern.

3 Ducimus (Bet Now: $7.50) is the big watch. Talented son of Snitzel that resumes for Darren Weir after formerly being with Team Hawkes and then Mick Price. This bloke had one run in the Spring, which came in the Red Anchor on Cox Plate Day behind Eptimum. Now with Weir and his trial last week at Werribee was quite good.

13 Redcore (Bet Now: $18.00) seems to have turned the corner for Greg Eurell. He was a squib once upon a time but as he is getting older, he is attacking the line with purpose and has won a couple of races. Thornton rode him a treat last time out on the Pakenham Synthetic and once popped into clear air, he surged and proved too good. 1000m looks his go and hopefully a cold ride and cover will see him run well.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Falago

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 10 Propelle

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 14 Urban Ruler

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 11, 14, 15

Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 10, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 12, 13

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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