9/5/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, SA Derby day

A bumper nine race card will be run and won at Morphettville on Saturday where it is SA Derby Day, keeping in mind that the first three races will be on the Parks track. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres from the 1800m-Winning Post; True for the remainder on the course proper. Rail is out five metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder on the Parks track.

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Going with 6 Dixon Street (Bet Now: $2.50) for the McEvoy camp. This three year old resumed over 1100m at Gawler when a late drifter in betting but still a short priced elect and he gave them a proper spanking in an impressive return. Back to 1000m is the knock with him, but speed should be on and he’ll be quite strong at the end.

4 Larkham (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up a little while in his first career prep but is racing quite well. Thought his effort two weeks ago on the Parks track was enormous given he was wide no cover for the trip yet stuck on really well in defeat behind Fortune Follows. Just can’t get his win three back out of the mind where he looked Stakes class. I’ll butter up.

8 Glory Game (Bet Now: $8.00) rises a bit in grade/depth, but there was a bit to like about her maiden win last Wednesday at Balaklava. Was wide no cover on speed but cruised to the front early on in the straight and she went right on with it. Gets in well after the claim and with this wet track, small field, can’t dismiss her.

I’m surprised 3 Indictment (Bet Now: $4.50) isn’t closer to favourite. Has had two career outings for Ken Keys, debuting with an eye catching fourth at Caulfield before going to the Sires at Flemington when wide early before pressing forward and gee he was game in defeat, getting caught late by Flying Award. Draws much better this time around, gets a suck run off the speed and will take a power of beating.

Mick Huxtable looks to have a smart filly on his hands in the shape of 7 Ecumenical (Bet Now: $2.20). She’s won three of her four career outings, with the last two clearly being her most impressive, noteworthy with Blinkers being applied, seemingly really switching her on. The Breeders Stakes win was dominant and on form, clearly the one to beat.

Would love the Chris Bieg stable to find a maiden for 12 Vondexter (Bet Now: $91.00) because I think she’d be a good thing there. Including her in wider multiples here. Ran in a metro maiden last time out and worked home well when fifth to Ecumenical, who is the benchmark 2YO in SA as it stands. Looked great in a jumpout last week. Just needs to find a maiden for her at the Provincials.

7 Jacobite Prince (Bet Now: $5.00) is worth another chance. First two runs this time in came over 1250m on the Parks track. Gave them a belting two back when on speed throughout. Was near the pace last time over this track/distance and you’d have to mark him down as disappointing when fifth to Poysed To Rein, who was impressive. Hopefully gets luck from the gate and giving him another chance.

2 One More Jack (Bet Now: $3.50) is a beauty for Shane Oxlade that is in a real purple patch, winning 6/6 this prep, the latest coming three weeks ago here when leading throughout and he gave them a good spanking in winning. Has won at 1350m…just needs to stretch his brilliance out to 1400m and if he can, he’ll take some beating.

10 Seababe (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Will Clarken trained mare that can be a big improver here with the Blinkers going on first time. Comes through the Poysed To Rein race from two weeks ago where she did have her chance on the line, but she was held up for a few strides and didn’t get a chance to build proper momentum. Draws to sit three wide with cover off a good speed and launch late.

10 Almadrava (Bet Now: $2.40) on top in a tricky race. Former Michael Kent filly that trialled like a bomb prior to resuming at Gawler where she was heavily backed as a short priced odds on pop and if you were on, there wasn’t a moment of concern from the front and she was far too good for them. Think she can go on with it and measure up here.

Hard to knock the way 4 Sidestreet (Bet Now: $6.00) is going at the moment. Narrow maiden winner at Murray Bridge two back before repeating the dose at Gawler when on speed throughout and was far too good for his rivals in solid enough time relative to the day. The tick for him is that he’s proven on wet ground should we get a rain affected track.

9 Mihany (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Dean Saxon trained veteran that has had better days and they are behind him but in saying that, is racing really well at the moment without winning. Ran over 1100m at Gawler last time out and worked home well from off the pace but was never really a threat to the above average Dixon Street. Think that form reads alright for this.

14 Monteferrante (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Team McEvoy trained mare that has had two runs for the new stable since coming from the Corstens camp. Slogged it out best to win at Murray Bridge before going to Balaklava last Wednesday where she got into a two horse battle with Fight For Freedom, with that horse just getting the better. Third up at 1800m, she appeals.

3 Adatto (Bet Now: $7.50) is a key chance despite coming back to 1800m. He ran over 1950m on the Parks track last start when backed as if unbeatable and under a lovely steer from Pannell, he surged hard the last little bit and was too good, just. Has that tough 1950m run under the belt and should hold him in good stead for this 1800m assignment.

5 Exalted Dee (Bet Now: $8.50) is going pretty well I think for Grant Young and in a tricky race, I think she can run a positive race at odds. Last couple of runs have been on her favourite track at Gawler. Two back was a closing fourth before going up to 1700m and closed off strongly to run a narrow second to Manzala. Proven city performer and 1800m should be fine.

6 Kooweerup (Bet Now: $3.10) looks beautifully placed by the Maher/Eustace team. This filly was second up two weeks ago over 1400m at Flemington when back near last in the run and worked home very strongly late when third to Kuramae. Only time at 1600m, she finished 7/9, but her late splits in a fast run race were excellent, so 1600m is fine and has a gate to use.

11 Really Discreet (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly that was okay late in the Laelia behind Meuse before coming back in trip in the Nitschke and was excellent late, closing off with purpose to run second to Wild Vixen. Think back up to 1600m will suit this girl big time and hopefully she can sit a bit closer in the run this time around.

2 Game Keeper (Bet Now: $9.50) is 2/2 this time in and I think he can make it 3/3. Toughed it out strongly to win first up over 1250m on the Parks track here before stepping up to 1500m, again taking on the older horses, and gave them a spanking in an impressive performance. Did run at a decent level as a 2YO and Spring 3YO but this prep looks to have put it together.

3 Beautiful Flyer (Bet Now: $8.50) is a mare who has run well on the seven day back up previously and banking on her doing that again here. She ran in the Robert Sangster last Saturday and while she was clearly outclassed, she was far from disgraced in defeat I thought behind Bella Vella. Looks much better suited at this level and gets a sweet trip from the gate.

9 Debt Collector (Bet Now: $5.00) is a key threat. Stuart Padman trains this gelding, who resumed over 1050m here three weeks ago when run off his legs early before picking up and was ready to burst through under Vorster, but the gaps didn’t appear at the right time in a good resumption. Fitter and up to 1200m, he’s likeable here in a strong race.

10 Tequila Time (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Macdonald/Gluyas trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when on speed, copping pressure, and folded up late in the straight behind one of the more in form gallopers in SA at the moment, One More Jack. Prior form was good so he gets respect here.

This race evolves around 4 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $5.00 SPECIAL ODDS). Just how good is he? If he’s as good as what Danny O’Brien thinks he is, he’ll win this and the SA Derby. Scratched at the barriers at Caulfield before racing a few days later under the lights at Pakenham and it was pretty much a barrier trial for prize money. Put into the race by Olly, was a fraction keen but once he popped into clear air, he lengthened like a really good horse. If he runs up to that, he’ll take a power of beating here.

If 1 Dalasan (Bet Now: $2.90) runs the 2500m out strongly, he wins. That’s the only knock with him here. Yes, was a strong winner of the Chairmans two weeks ago, but he wasn’t exactly savaging the line like a Derby horse so that’s the query and why he’s $3+ and not odds on because class/brilliance wise, he has lengths on these.

9 St Arnicca (Bet Now: $67.00) is a Paul Preusker trained three year old that could fill a first four spot at massive odds. Thought he was really good two back at Caulfield before contesting the St Leger where he just got a bit too far back and whacked away behind Sacramento. Blinkers go on to sharpen him up and off the Caulfield effort, a first four finish isn’t the craziest idea.

Have to stick with 6 Lakhani Rose (Bet Now: $7.50). She’s flying this girl but her racing pattern does mean she needs a couple of things to go her way. Didn’t go her way a few weeks ago but she was very good late when second to the in form Sizzlefly, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. If she’s within range on the turn, she’ll be too good.

4 Seemingly Discreet (Bet Now: $5.00) is a smart filly for the Stokes team that is putting together a really good record. Led throughout two back before racing on the Parks track two weeks back when ridden with a sit, peeling wider and loved the way she knuckled down to win and win well again. Has to be rated highly again against these.

1 Mum’s My Hero (Bet Now: $9.00) is going just super at the moment. Had his first run for Darren Magro three weeks ago where he was a notable drifter in betting but despite that, he finished best and showed good ticker to fend them off and win. That was his first run in six weeks or so, so with upside to come, is very likeable.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 Lakhani Rose

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Indictment

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Beautiful Flyer

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 11

Leg Two: 3, 4, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 9

Leg Four: 6

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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