9/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Supremacy Stakes day

Eight races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday where it is Supremacy Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

I think only bad luck will beat the Adam Durrant trained 1 Mikimoto (Bet Now: $2.60). She probably had second up syndrome when racing at Pinjarra (Metro) four weeks ago but it didn’t matter, just, with class getting her home in the end. Expecting her to be just about cherry ripe third up after a long spell and she looks to be crying out for further, so the 1800m looks ideal. Should win.

10 Sliced Bread (Bet Now: $5.00) is a handy three year old for the Dion Luciani stable who ran in the Lex Piper last Saturday and I thought his run was a disappointment given he had the right run behind the speed and for mine, was entitled to finish better and closer behind Regal Power. Perhaps up in trip will suit him…doubt he beats Mikimoto, but I think he has to run better.

2 Bella’s Idol…(Bet Now: $6.00) ah bless her. Had something on her at the big odds last Saturday and aided by such a sweet steer from Mitch Pateman, the gelding kept finding the line and in a driving go, the verdict went his way. Off that run, the 1800m should be no issue for him…just creeping up the weights scale again, but he’s a recent winner who looks to be flying.

1 Samizdat (Bet Now: $1.95) looks the obvious. Chris Gangemi trains this talented gelding, who defied somewhat of a betting drift when resuming with an electric finale to take out the Magic Millions at Pinjarra. There is rain forecast, but don’t worry about that. He’s by Not A Single Doubt and he’s one of the better wet track sires going around, so that any give in the track will make him more of a good thing IMO.

I think you have to give the Lindsey Smith trained 9 Seven Castles (Bet Now: $6.50) another look. On face value, he was disappointing when resuming two weeks ago behind Fairview here after receiving every chance, but the one thin I will say is that he did look to carry a bit of pudding, with improvement to come, which is the saving grace somewhat. Just can’t pen him yet because the trial was too good to ignore.

6 Grand Design (Bet Now: $9.50) is a David Harrison trained filly that is heading in the right direction. She’s 2/2 this time in, the latest being last Wednesday over 1200m here when pulling hard in the run yet still showing a good turn of foot to put them away and win impressively. Really like the look of her and despite coming back in trip, I think she can measure up.

4 Carocapo (Bet Now: $2.30) for me in a tricky race. Jim Taylor has done a really good job with this bloke after a long break. Impressive winner two back at Pinjarra (Metro) before racing over 1200m here where he led, copped pressure and stuck on well in defeat behind Seeker, who had the cold sit on the speed. Back to 1100m, he should lead from the gate and be tough to run down.

1 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Peter Fernie trained gelding who had specking when resuming at Pinjarra (Metro) four weeks ago and after getting a relatively good run near the speed, I think his condition just gave out late behind Alpha Sky. Wet track no issue for him I don’t think if the rain comes and despite drawing wide, he’s got the early toe to come over and likely sit outside Carocapo.

If they go silly in front, look for 5 Audience (Bet Now: $23.00) to be warming to the task late. Cliff Green trains this mare, who ran over 1000m here a fortnight ago where she got back in an on pace dominated affair won by Fabergino but was far from disgraced. Think up to 1100m will suit and if she can get the speed on in front, and is within range on the turn, she can be dangerous.

4 Prim And Proper (Bet Now: $5.00) is a handy looking filly for Lou Luciani who resumed here two weeks ago and for the most part, she looked the winner. Just found Niccovi too good, just, who placed in the Magic Millions the start prior, so that’s proper form for this and she does draw to hopefully stalk the speed and have last look, hopefully being stronger at the end with the run under the belt.

7 Rio Del Mar (Bet Now: $2.05) is a daughter of Magnus for the Simon Miller stable that is on debut. She has had three public trials in readiness for her first day at the races. Won a trial at Belmont back in December before being given a let up and has had two recent trials, both looking pretty good to the eye, and the stable very rarely miss when it comes to these feature juvenile races.

Giving respect to 1 Beethoven (Bet Now: $15.00), resuming for Fred Kersley. This son of Helmet had two runs in the Summer to start his career, winning on debut before stepping up to 1100m where he just found Rubic Rose too good on the day. Resumes without a trial, but this race doesn’t appear overly strong and he’s in the right stable, so happy to include him here.

2 Midnight Sky (Bet Now: $3.20) looks a safe option. Resumed over 1400m here a fortnight ago and you could make a very good case that she should have won. Just had no luck getting clear when Pike wanted to and by the time he did, it was pretty much too late, but really, all it was in the end was the bob of the head. Should have won. Hopefully can atone this time around.

3 Flower Of Scotland (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Paige Kenney trained mare who did an excellent job first up I thought behind Wanted Desire. That was over 1400m here on Feb 20 at the midweeks where she was wide no cover on speed and was entitled to drop away but she kept finding and was really good in defeat I thought. If that hasn’t busted her, she’s a definite chance.

Huge query on 4 Taxadermy (Bet Now: $18.00) a handy galloper for Lindsey Smith who resumes. This eight year old hasn’t raced since September 15 at Belmont when finishing down the track behind Dark Prospect in a race which has produced five winners, so that reads well, and he’s had three trials to prepare, so the work looks to be put in to run a decent race fresh.

Not really a race I want to get involved in but on top is 5 Debellatio (Bet Now: $4.80), who ran last Saturday over 1400m here where he landed on speed and looked to travel well into the straight. Just lacked the killer blow to match it with Forceful, who was impressive. Was coming back in trip from 1500m so up to the mile now, he should get run of the race stuff from the barrier.

6 Special Delivery (Bet Now: $4.80) is a horse that’s going really well at the moment for Mark Bairstow. Ran over 1400m here two weeks back where he lumped the 61.5kg and despite that, he was as honest as he always is when a close up fourth to Turbo Power. Clearly rises in depth/grade, but gets much needed weight relief and I think up to 1600m is a big tick for him.

The drop back in overall depth should suit the Adam Durrant trained 3 Pinzu (Bet Now: $11.00). He ran in the Detonator a fortnight ago and for mine was disappointing behind Star Exhibit but have to keep in mind he was wide no cover and keen. His best chance will be ridden cold, with cover, and launch at them late. He’s hard to trust but his best is certainly good enough.

Has to carry the weight but I think 1 American Joy (Bet Now: $7.00) will be hard to hold out. Ran over 2100m here a fortnight back where I thought Pike gave the mare every chance in the run. Just found one better in He’s A Parker. Was held up for a few strides but thought she was out in time to win. Think 2400m will suit her and overall, this is a thin staying contest IMO.

6 Dealing (Bet Now: $6.00) has been a real model of consistency this time in. Just missed out on the win two back at Albany before racing over 2200m here two weeks ago where he was given a lovely ride by Pateman and the ride deserved the win. High Energy was just too good on the line but Dealing was solid and you’d like to think he’ll do something similar in a near similar race.

4 Someday Oneday (Bet Now: $34.00) could be an improver at odds for Justin Warwick. He ran over the mile here last Saturday, a distance clearly short of his best, but he kept coming and was quite good I thought behind Bella’s Idol. Think he wants further, which he gets immediately, and is the horse with clear upside. May need one more run, but a win wouldn’t surprise.

Few ways you could go here. Landed with 5 Plutocracy (Bet Now: $3.80), now with Simon Miller after formerly being with the Hayes/Dabernig team. She showed city class ability at times when racing in in Victoria but towards the end just couldn’t quite measure up, not showing her form from the three year old season. Looked sharp in a Lark Hill trial win and her best is good enough to beat these.

He’s an absolute beauty is 2 Little Fish (Bet Now: $3.70). Four weeks between runs since resuming at Pinjarra (Metro) when wide no cover on speed but despite that hard run, gee he fought on gamely when second to Carocapo. Been given the extra time to recover from that hard resumption but it proved he can measure up at city grade. If he’s recovered, he’ll take beating.

1 Vermont Lady (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Paige Kenney trained mare that is first up. She hasn’t raced since December 1 over this track/distance when doing work in the run and fading late behind Father Knick. Been given a break and comes here with no public trials. No luck first up last prep behind a good one in Pym’s Royale, so probably needs the run but she goes in the quaddie just in case.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Mikimoto

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Samizdat

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Prim And Proper

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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