9/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

5 Sunset Dreaming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Team McEvoy after racing last Saturday in the Sandown Guineas at Caulfield where she got back to near last and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up ground and was pretty good in the run to the line in defeat behind Serasana. This looks more her level and if the back up is no issue, she’s clearly the one to beat.

1 Raymond’s Reward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance IMO. Matty Williams trains this three year old, who resumed in a maiden at Warrnambool over this trip where the market said he was a moral and despite a few nervous moments, he had enough in hand to score. He looks a horse on the up and the stable is putting together a decent younger team, including this guy. Definite winning chance.

3 Canyonlands (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1400m but has a kind map and J Kah to steer. This guy has finished runner up in both career outings, the latest at The Valley last time where he did too much work on speed and just couldn’t quite see it through when second. Gets a much more economical run in transit this time around and if there is petrol left in the tank, he’s dangerous.

8 Macocha (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like she has an engine under the hood for Henry Dwyer. She debuted a couple of weeks ago over this track/distance where she had to use energy to hold a spot on speed nearer the inside and all credit to her for fighting hard in the straight to get the win, the win having more merit given the rider lost the whip. Hard to beat in what looks a winnable race.

5 Parkour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Extreme Choice colt for James Cummings that is on debut. He was run off his legs in a trial at Randwick so the stable sent him to their Flemington base for a jumpout and while he was asked for an effort, he did respond and was pretty good late when second. Stable should always be respected with their juveniles and this race doesn’t appear to be deep.

2 Vianarra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. Busuttin/Young trains this colt, who was down the track in the Debutant before going here where he got back and made up solid headway without threatening behind Stormbourg. Likely concedes a start again but is hard fit, has the race experience and should be strong at the end.

9 Tillotson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Tom Dabernig trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Feb 3 at The Valley when looking a tired horse in a 955m behind Foxicon, who was flying at the time. Has looked sharp in a couple of jumpout wins, lands on speed and will take running down I’m sure.

14 Imapagethree Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like she has her share of talent for Henry Dwyer. 2/2 to start her career, winning on debut at Swan Hill in August before being spelled. She resumed over 1000m at Ballarat when on speed and she got better as the race went on to win and win well in a sharp return. Good test here against likely types, but confident she can measure up.

4 Tax Free Prophet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be hit and miss at times but I do think he’s racing well enough to give this a shake. He did more than enough fresh at Mornington before going to a 955m at The Valley where he got back in the run and did make up headway without threatening behind Berry Bubbly. Truly run 1100m should suit and he can launch late if he’s within range on the turn.

7 Shohei (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big improver here for Team Hawkes. This mare resumed at Rosehill a few weeks back where the market took a set against her, saying she would need the run, and that’s how it panned out, settling on speed and tiring badly the last 100m behind Salisano. Better for the run under the belt, she appeals big time here because she does have a touch of quality about her.

4 My Yankee Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading chances. Vincent Malady trains this mare, who comes here with fresh legs, having not race since Geelong Cup Day where she got back to near last in the run but launched late to just miss out on the win when a narrow second to Lafargue. Tick over jumpout win was sharp, she can settle much closer in the run from the gate and be strong at the end.

1 Belsielle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won’t know herself in a benchmark 78 given her racing in recent times has come in Stakes races, the latest run being on Cup Day at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind Skew Wiff, who of course went on to run well in the Rupert Clarke. Back to this level, claim for Billy Pinn, she commands respect.

Keen on 8 Excelleration (Bet Now:  $SP.00). On face value, i thought he was plain when resuming at Flemington but when you break down the race sectionals, he had no hope of figuring in the finish so forgive and forget. Jumped out like a jet leading in so mapping much better here, up to 2000m, bit of juice in the track…keen.

3 Deepstrike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is very hard to beat if the track gets hit with rain. He ran three weeks ago in the Country Cups Final at Caulfield when far from disgraced in defeat after getting a mile out of his ground, beaten just under six lengths by Claidheamh Mor. The weather determines his chances. Dry track, place chance. Wet track, a key winning chance.

4 Harmysian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had three runs at 2000m now so he’s had the right grounding. Caused somewhat of a surprise in the Kyneton Cup before racing at Caulfield when far from disgraced in defeat behind Claidheamh Mor after getting back off the speed. He has won up to 3000m so 2000m on testing ground will be ideal and with a half positive ride, he’ll take beating.

16 Divine Purpose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very promising mare who seems to be enjoying life with Moody/Coleman after formerly being in North Queensland with Clinton Taylor. First run for the new stable came at Caulfield three weeks ago and I think you can make a case to say she should have won but had little luck in the straight in terms of getting clear air. Fitter, it all points to her taking this out and progressing to better races.

11 Big Story (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in super order for Price/Kent and he’s on top for me. He was specked at odds fresh at Pakenham and I think you can make a case to say he wins if he had clear air throughout. He then went to this track/distance where he gave them a start and a beating in a sharp display. It’s all upside with him and off last start, he’s hard to beat here.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 1 Alverdun (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumed over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks back where he looked in need of the run and ran accordingly when down the track behind So Risque. Good second up record, much better suited up to the mile and won’t mind a bit of rain hitting the track.

3 Baroque Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Maher/Eustace gelding that is first up, having not raced since August 30 when a strong winner over 1300m at Sandown and I love horses that go for a spell on a high because they come back in similar form. His recent jumpout at Cranbourne was a very sharp piece of work and he looks to be humming for his return.

8 A Little Deep (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Maher/Eustace that commands respect. She has been kept on ice, having not raced since Moe Cup Day on October 20 when a sharp winner over 1000m. Two jumpouts since to keep her up to the mark and she does seem quite explosive on the fresh side. Leading chance.

1 Stupendo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Just a run first up at Murray Bridge before having a mini break and racing last week at Bendigo when near the speed and fighting on quite well in defeat when second to Short And Stout. Not sure he can win, but he can run top four.

8 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like a rise to 2000m will suit. I was keen on this mare and her chances in the Cranbourne Cup two weeks ago but she wanted to lay in under pressure and threw away any chance of winning. That said, she was only beaten narrowly by Charterhouse. Up in trip, hard fit, she clearly appeals.

4 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Freedman and rates highly. This gelding has won three on the bounce, the latest coming in the JRA Cup when seemingly not at home at The Valley but class came to the fore late and he was too good. If he doesn’t want the rain to hit given he is a dry tracker so if the rain does miss, he’s a leading contender.

11 Red Sun Sensation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Moody/Coleman. He ran three weeks ago in the Country Cups Final at Caulfield where was held up behind the speed but was out in time to win. Just no match late for a very tough stayer, Claidheamh Mor. He’s placed his past four and in a winnable race like this to my eye, he rates highly.

3 Taunting (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here despite rising in trip. He ran two weeks ago in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne where he produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, leading throughout and was quite impressive in the run to the line. If he can stretch his brilliance out to beyond 1000m, then they are cooking with gas and he then becomes quite clearly the one to beat.

4 King Of Hastings (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Ilovethiscity that resumes for Team Freedman. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Winter Stakes when attempting to lead throughout but failed to finish it off behind Ucalledit, who was flying at the time. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and his trial/jumpout work has been more than encouraging. Watch the market.

2 Tycoonist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Chris Waller, he now finds himself with the Fouchard/Foster camp. His best is clearly good enough to give this a shake although 1100m is on the short side for him, but I will say his recent jumpout was a pretty good piece of work so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

12 Atmosphere (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Looked like it would come a few weeks back at Rosehill when looming to beat Felix Majestic but that horse had it too easy on speed and kicked on strongly, fending off Atmosphere. He has that 1400m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead for this. Leading contender.

6 Meridius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned well I’d suggest and can take this out. Can easily make a case to say he wins with clear air first up on Geelong Cup Day before going to Caulfield three weeks back where he was again held up at times when seemingly having something to offer so be forgiving. Hard fit now, and hopefully with a more positive ride, he can win.

16 Space Tracker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Annabel Neasham trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up after teasing when last in work, threatening to be a Saturday class horse but not quite getting the job done. He does seem to race best on the fresh side and his trial work in Sydney to get ready has been more than encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Five number 8 Excelleration

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Baroque Road

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Tillotson

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4, 8, 11

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 9

Leg Four: 1, 6, 11, 12, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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