8/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Sir John Monash Stakes day

Caulfield will play host to a nine event meeting on Saturday, headlined by the Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Sir John Monash Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Sir John Monash Stakes

1100m looks a bit on the short side for 2 Sensical (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but she has a bit of quality about her and confident she can resume with a win. She had a three run prep in the Autumn to start her career, going down the Blue Diamond path where she was far from disgraced in the lead ups before being down the track in the big race behind Little Brose. Given a good break and off a sharp jumpout win at Pakenham, I think she’s ready to go.

3 Pure Paradise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Capitalist filly for Lloyd Kennewell that resumes. This girl had two runs in the Spring to start her career, debuting with a second in the Debutant behind King’s Gambit before a second in the Ballarat Magic Millions to Sunsource. Whether she needs the run, not sure, but thought she closed off nicely in a recent Cranbourne jumpout.

4 Elderberry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in really good order for Team Freedman and is hard to beat against these. She was kept safe in betting when resuming over 1100m at Moe and she was impressive in winning, giving them a start and a beating from off the speed, drawing clear late and running solid time. Off that effort, 1100m at metro level is no issue and is hard to beat.

To me, 6 Aristonous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is having a look around Caulfield to see if he handles it. If he does, they can have eyes on the Caulfield Cup. He looks a really good horse for Annabel that is 2/2 since arriving in Australia. Amazing win at Newcastle fresh given he was wide no cover before giving them a start and a beating at Randwick two weeks ago. He’ll eat up 2000m and IMO, he has lengths on these. Best on the program.

2 Blue Cup (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is teasing to win one for Matt Cumani. He did that teasing thing again a fortnight back here, getting a fair way out of his ground and made up solid headway in the straight without threatening when beaten just under two lengths by all the way winner Wild Imagination. Like him up in trip, can settle closer and still be effective at the end.

8 Station One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a hard horse to catch but he does appear well placed in this 78 for Liam Howley. He was big odds a fortnight back over this track/distance when attempting to lead throughout and giving a solid kick from the front but just lacked the class to go with them late behind Normandy Bridge. Back to 78 grade, more economical run, he’ll take beating.

6 So Sleek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be rated as the one to beat. Lot of quality about his maiden win over the mile at Bendigo two back before going to Flemington three weeks ago where he was very good from off the speed when second to First Immortal, who franked the form last Saturday. So Sleek could have gone to that race but instead stays at 2000m and I think it’ll prove to be the right move.

4 Artzino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. Like most, I was keen on his chances three weeks ago at Caulfield over 2000m. Billy Pinn has ridden some super races since coming across, but this was a slaughter. He made a three/four wide move from around 1000m out and just couldn’t sustain the run when a tiring fifth to dominant winner First Immortal. I think staying at 2000m will be no issue and has more upside than most.

8 Moveforlex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to appreciate a rise to 2000m. Formerly with Scott Brunton, he had his first run for Patrick Payne at Mornington where the track was too wet for him and he failed to handle the conditions when down the track behind Proprietary. On breeding, 2000m is fine and the stable wouldn’t run him in town if he wasn’t going any good.

Landed with 2 Born Hustler (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This filly has run over the mile her past couple, bolting up two back before taking on the older horses last Wednesday and she was as brave as ever from on speed but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Crimson Light. Tricky draw, but should slide forward and gets in pretty well after the claim. Likeable.

1 Anahita (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for Matt Laurie that rates as one of the hardest to beat. She ran last Wednesday at Sandown where she was kept pretty safe in betting and under a lovely ride from Mertens, she was a strong winner. She was there to be beaten but she found under pressure and was strong to the line in winning. Harder here, but hard to knock the way she’s racing.

13 Snick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is still a maiden but she is a filly with a decent engine under the hood. She was big odds when racing here a fortnight back and understandably so given her overall record but I didn’t mind the way she found the line late in the piece when third to Va Via. She’d be a moral in a maiden but like her up to 1400m and the depth, as a whole, isn’t overly deep.

3 Riverplate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here for Busuttin/Young. Market wanted him with confidence when resuming over 1300m at Sandown and under a confident steer from Gaudray, he was strong to the line in a driving finish, just getting the better of Just Johnno. He is better over further so that return is very encouraging and despite a tricky draw, he’ll take beating against these IMO.

1 Monarch Of Egypt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race with a more patient steer. I think Coffey rode him a bit warm three weeks ago at Flemington when attempting to lead throughout, which was difficult for the meeting due to the strong headwind, and he tired late when down the track behind Not An Option. Prior form and efforts were strong so he can easily bounce back here.

8 Blazerro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Feb 25 at Morphettville when producing an end of prep run, attempting to lead throughout but was one of the first beat when down the track behind Disagreeable Miss. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and his recent jumpout work has been more than encouraging.

2 Brigantine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. He is five weeks between runs since contesting the Spear Chief at Eagle Farm when placing behind Munhamek, who has run well since and is a pretty good yard stick for this level in Melbourne. Soft tick over trial to keep him humming along and maps to get a perfect run in transit near the speed.

3 Poland… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he any good? We are certainly going to find out here. He resumed three weeks ago down the straight at Flemington where he was on speed throughout but into the wind, he was found wanting late, tiring to finish down the track behind Sigh. Fitter, up in trip, back miles in depth, I think this is just about D-Day for him.

8 Proconsent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout here for Lindsey Smith. He ran two weeks back over 1200m here in an easier race where he seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Skywolf. That was his first run in a month so you’d like to think he’ll have room for improvement and his best is clearly good enough to be dangerous.

11 Smile And Wave (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a pretty sharp filly for Team Freedman that resumes. She had a two run prep when last in work during the Summer, bolting up fresh in a Mornington maiden before repeating the dose down the straight at Flemington and was spelled. Trial/jumpout work has been strong, Froggy sticks, she’ll land near the speed and take running down.

12 Greyt Mumma (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a short course type for Team Freedman and should take beating against these. This filly ran at Mornington last time where Pinn rode her with a sit just behind the speed before angling her into clear air and gee I thought she was impressive the way she put them away late. Short course racing looks her go in life so with that in mind, she rates highly.

15 Bye Bye Betty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly with decent talent for Andrew Payne and is a definite knockout hope. She was big odds when racing several weeks back over 1100m at Flemington and while she was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way she found the line late and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Cause For Concern. She can settle closer and still be effective at the end from the good draw.

2 Malkovich (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to rock and roll for Bjorn Baker. Had three runs in the latter part of the Autumn/Winter, the latest one coming in the Lightning at Eagle Farm when doing too much work on speed and tiring late behind Petronius. I think the best chance for him is to let him hum on speed, let him roll. If that eventuates, he has the runs on the board to do a number on these.

13 Sigh (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Peter Moody and rates highly against these. 2/2 this time in, both wins coming down the straight at Flemington. Latest was three weeks ago where she was there to be beaten but you had to like the way she dug in under pressure to fend them off and score a narrow but impressive win. I think with a patient steer, 1100m at this level is fine, and has the change up speed to launch at them.

3 General Beau (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Matty Ellerton and has to be considered as one of the leading chances. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Flemington down the straight where he was as honest as ever, keeping on finding the line but just missed out on picking up Sigh. He is suited at WFA and has the hard fitness under the belt.

13 The Nephew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be knocking on the door to win. Patrick Payne trained four year old that ran over the mile here two weeks ago and was a real eye catcher from the back, warming to the task late and just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Wild Imagination. Several weeks between runs there so he has room for improvement. Appeals big time.

7 Flash Flood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to rate as one of the hardest to beat. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that was working up to another win and it came a few weeks ago at Sandown, getting a sweet run in transit under Carleen before angling into clear and in a blanket finish, the verdict went his way, just. That was his first look at the mile for the prep so he has that run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

4 Saint Bathans (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a touch of quality about him and commands respect for Andrew Forsman. He was kept pretty safe in betting when resuming two weeks back over 1400m here. He got a mile out of his ground from the inside gate and made up headway in a good return behind St Lawrence. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating IMO, especially up in trip.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Aristonous

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Malkovich

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 The Nephew

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 9, 11, 12, 15

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 13

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