The Queensland Winter Carnival warms up this Saturday at the Gold Coast this Saturday with Hollidale Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out a metre from the 1000m-400m; True for the remainder.
Race One (11:50) : Jaguar F-Type Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Kraftwerk (Best Odds: $6.00) ran three weeks back on Toowoomba Cup Day and battled on alright when fifth to Trubia in a race where the form has been franked. Draws wide James McDonald will offset that.
Big Danger: 6 Londehero (Best Odds: $4.80) resumed at the Sunny Coast over 1000m a fortnight ago and closed off well late behind in form sprinter Another Whiskey. Extra trip and added fitness will help and this is a very winnable race.
Roughie: 12 Sony Legend (Best Odds: $14.00) can be hard to follow and trust, but gee he looked unlucky last time out at Beaudesert when not really clear until it was all over. He has performed well in town before and is down in the weights.
Race Two (12:25) : City of Gold Coast Handicap (80) 1800m:
Back Me: I think there is real value in the shape of 2 Forever Crazy (Best Odds: $21.00). This former Chris Waller runner has had two runs for Tony Gollan, the latest being three weeks back at Toowoomba over the mile behind Ruling Force. Up to a more ideal trip now and McDonald steers.
Big Danger: 3 Col ‘N’ Lil (Best Odds: $4.80) is on the back up after racing over the mile at Doomben last Saturday where she made up alright ground late behind Brettan. Up to a trip she has performed well at in Stakes grade and should get every chance from the gate.
Roughie: 10 Coastal Gem (Best Odds: $15.00) is a Gold Coast specialist who ran over this track/distance last time out and looked home but was outgunned late by Canongate, who she meets here and 0.5 better at the weights, plus there is more upside.
Race Three (13:00) : Jaguar XJ Ken Russell Memorial Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Impending (Best Odds: $1.60) does look to have a few lengths on these. He could not have been more impressive at his debut at Rosehill a fortnight back in what looked a strong two year old race. Brings that form here and he wins.
Big Danger: 1 Sundance (Best Odds: $14.00) is a talented colt that resumes for Toby Edmonds. He hasn’t raced since running fifth to Zelady’s Night Out in the B J McLachlan (1200m). Didn’t mind the way he trialled at Grafton against older horses, and he is the class runner.
Roughie: 2 Oink (Best Odds: $14.00) ran at the Sunny Coast a fortnight back and stuck to the task pretty gamely I thought. Not sure he can beat Impending, but he should acquit himself well.
Race Four (13:40) : All New Jaguar XE Gold Coast Bracelet 1800m:
Back Me: 8 Circular (Best Odds: $4.80) looked in awful trouble last time out at Canterbury, but Avdulla got her into the clear and she just savaged the line for a super victory. McDonald elects her, draws well and distance will be no issue.
Big Danger: 6 Imposing Lass (Best Odds: $3.60) is a hard one to read, I’ll concede her two wins this time in have been impressive on face value, but she has dictated both times on speed and sprinted. Big test for her here, but she is very likeable.
Roughie: If there is going to be an improver, it could be 2 Dawnie Perfect (Best Odds: $26.00). Forget she went around last week in the Gunsynd given the pace was too slow and she was back. Bigger track and up to a more ideal track could spark her back into form.
Race Five (14:20) : Better Than Ready Silk Stocking 1200m:
Back Me: I’ve been on 6 Miss Cover Girl (Best Odds: $6.00) nearly every start and more often than not she lets me down. She resumes here off an alright trial at Deagon, but the big keys here are that she resumes with blinkers on first time and tongue tie, loves Gold Coast and will get the run of the race.
Big Danger: If there is going to be an improver, I think it’s 1 Bring Me The Maid (Best Odds: $16.00). I thought there was merit in her effort behind Two Blue in the Sapphire and the form has been franked. Draws to get good cover, cushion in the track and the booking of Blake Shinn I like.
Roughie: 9 Rosenet (Best Odds: $21.00) is the watch horse. Resumes on her home track for Bruce Hill off the back of a quiet trial on it recently. Unbeaten fresh, loves sting out of the ground and draws to sit back and ambush.
Race Six (15:00) : Bruce Lynton Jaguar Prime Ministers Cup 1400m:
Back Me: I’ll be surprised if the winner doe come outside the top two. Leaning towards 2 Worthy Cause (Best Odds: $3.80). He looked to have had the race won at the Sunny Coast but Hopfgarten was just too strong. Should get every chance from the good draw and prove to hold out.
Big Danger: That last line also approves to the victor of that race, 1 Hopfgarten (Best Odds: $4.80). He was fabulous in winning that race and on the line, he was drawing clear. He is the class runner and also has enormous upside.
Roughie: 7 Jumbo Prince (Best Odds: $7.00) could be the forgotten horse in the race. He resumed in the Weetwood and just had no luck at all in the straight in what turned out to be a messy. With McDonald steering, and a nice gate, he can knock these out.
Race Seven (15:40) : All New Jaguar F-Pace A.D. Hollindale Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $10.00) will be my multi anchor for the weekend and I am really shocked he is at $11. His effort first up behind Its Somewhat in the Ajax (1500m) was first class given that was his first run since the Melbourne Cup. Was due to run in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m) but was scratched. Has since trialled and looked outstanding I think and really only bad luck can get him beat.
Big Danger: 2 Hauraki (Best Odds: $2.70) comes through the Queen Elizabeth (2000m) where he ran alright but was simply no match for Lucia Valentina, who was just unbelievable in winning. I really don’t like horses who come to Queensland as an afterthought. But he has the form on the board and ticks plenty of boxes.
Roughie: 12 Sakhee’s Soldier (Best Odds: $11.00) is a gelding that should not be underestimated here. He is a class act from New Zealand who was unlucky last time out in the Group l Easter Stakes over the mile at Ellerslie. He has a turn of foot, handles all conditions and did beat Rising Romance at Group l level over 2000m 14 months ago.
Race Eight (16:20) : All New Jaguar XF Gold Coast Guineas 1200m:
Back Me: It’s been a while since 1 Takedown (Best Odds: $3.40) has won, but I think he gets his chance here. I thought he was very good last time out in the Arrowfield Sprint behind a couple of Group l performers in Japonisme and Counterattack. Draws well, Clark rides, class, weights…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 15 Hesitation (Best Odds: $15.00) is a very good filly for Kelso Wood who found plenty when challenged to win first up at Ipswich. Ran some good races in town last time in and will love it if there is give in the ground.
Roughie: 10 Always Sacred (Best Odds: $14.00) was smashed in betting when resuming here and the bets were landed with an impressive win. Recent trial since that win has been good and though terribly weighted, he can threaten.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Excess Knowledge
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Worthy Cause
VALUE: Race Two Number 2 Forever Crazy
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2
Leg Three: 3
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 10, 13, 15
$50 Investment= 69.44% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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