7/5/2015 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Warrnambool Cup day

The best is saved for the last when it comes to the three day Warrnambool Carnival, with a bumper ten race card on Thursday, highlighted by the $200,000 Listed Sungold Milk Warrnambool Cup (2350m) and the $250,000 Wheelie Waste Grand Annual Steeplechase (5500m). The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out four metres from the 1300m-300m; True for the remainder.

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Race One (11:15am) : Simons Waterfront Handicap 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going with Cool Chap, (Best Odds: $6.50) who is on debut for Peter Moody. He has only made the one public appearance, and that came a couple of weeks back in a Cranbourne trial when travelling well throughout to run fourth. Looks to have good talent, drawn well and Moody first starters are having a great run at the moment.
Big Danger: Sogno D’Oro (Best Odds: $6.50) made his debut at Geelong (Metro) a couple of weeks back and worked home well late when running fourth to an above average youngster in Strindberg. That meeting saw horses either leading or on the rail dominate the afternoon, so for this bloke to make ground out wide on debut was a strong performance. Draws the paint now and will strike a fairer racing surface. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Volcanic Eruption (Best Odds: $5.00) is a first starter for Clinton McDonald by Bernadini who trialled well last week at Cranbourne, running second but seemingly looked to travel well throughout. Stable loves to target this carnival, so keep an eye on market moves with this filly.

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Race Two (11:50am) : Scania Australia Handicap (64) 1300m: Form Guide

Big Danger: Elgar (Best Odds: $10.00) is a Darren Weir trained gelding who smashed up an ordinary bunch on debut at Mildura, then had little luck at Bendigo before racing at that track again and sitting wide no cover throughout when third to He’s Commanding, beaten just under three lengths. Draws much better now with the paint barrier, Rawiller sticks and should prove hard to hold out.
Roughie: Balmain Lass (Best Odds: $7.50) was having her first run in just over three weeks when looming to win at Ballarat, but she couldn’t quite go on with it and had to settle for second to Act Of Valour. She should take good improvement from that outing and looms as a serious threat.
Roughie: Ziggy Martini (Best Odds: $26.00) was a hot favourite last time out at Ararat, but was under pressure most of the way from Yendall outside the speed, and was off the bit a fair way from home, but he did hit the lead briefly before being swallowed up by Queue For Quality, which had the suck run in behind. He is a query on a real heavy track, but he is trained on the track, and being third up now, he should be ready to peak.

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Race Three (12:25pm) : Keppel Prince Engineering- Neville Wilson Series Final (70) 1700m: Form Guide

Back Me: Interesting little race. Going with Yulong Baby (Best Odds: $3.70) for Mick Price and Damien Oliver. She put together a strong prep in the Spring/Summer, winning a couple of races and placing in town. She resumed a couple of weeks back at Seymour (Metro) and worked home strongly late when fourth to all the way winner Mrs President. Up to 1700m looks ideal, Ollie on, drawn well and she bolted up at her second run last prep in a strong maiden.
Big Danger: Falago (Best Odds: $2.30) is another of these Darren Weir runners that is just racing so well at the moment, with real consistency. He tried his guts out last start at Geelong over this distance when sitting just off the speed before railing up in the straight to hit the lead, look home, but was grabbed late by Digitalism. This looks a drop in grade and he should be cherry ripe now fourth up from a spell.
Roughie: Silent Man (Best Odds: $5.50) has a horrendous record of just one win from 16 starts, but he showed last start at Ballarat that win number two was just around the corner with an eye catching fourth to Rather Heroic, beaten half a length. He should get a sweet trip just off the speed and this is probably the easiest race he has contested in some time.

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Race Four (1:00pm) : Ludeman Real Estate Handicap (64) 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Strong race. I’m going with Holy Fire (Best Odds: $6.50). He bolted up two back at Cranbourne before racing over the Ballarat mile and just failing to pick up Rather Heroic in what I am sure is going to be a hot form race. Looks as though he’ll cope with the rise to 2000m and Mark Zahra is riding in fabulous form at the moment.
Big Danger: Settler’s Way (Best Odds: $13.00) ran home well last time out at Ararat when running fifth to Beauty Perception, beaten just over three lengths after getting a long way back in the run. He’ll have to go back in the run here also from the wide draw, but there looks to be good speed here, firmer surface and looks beautifully weighted after the claim.
Roughie: Giving the old jumping master Bashboy (Best Odds: $31.00) a sneaky place chance here. Just looked in need of the run when resuming at Cranbourne behind Soaked, but he does have a tidy second up record, loves the mud, and from all reports, he has come back in fantastic order, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a place.

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Race Five (1:35pm) : Hammonds Champion Novice Hurdle 3200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going with Set You Free (Best Odds: $14.00). This Team Corstens runner tried very hard two back over this distance at Bendigo when second to Zuhayr before racing over the 2500m on the flat at Pakenham and making up good ground late to run fifth to Belvedere Road, beaten 3.7L. His form over the jumps this time in has been strong and Patty Flood has been the form jumps rider of 2015. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: About The Journey (Best Odds: $26.00) makes his first appearance over the sticks for 2015 after several runs on the flat, and there was plenty to like about his run last time out at Cranbourne when grinding away strongly to finish four lengths off Lord Ore. He has looked slick in a couple of jumps trials and is trained by the master in Eric Musgrove.
Roughie: Don’t rule out former Lloyd Williams galloper Traded (Best Odds: $16.00), who has had a few homes since being at Macedon Lodge, but it looks as though jumping is his calling given he spanked his rivals last time out at Mount Gambier, winning by over ten lengths. Granted he didn’t beat much, but he jumped cleanly and won with real authority. He looks much better suited on firmer ground, which he gets here, so he is a definite chance.

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Race Six (2:10pm) : Schweppes Handicap (84) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting the older sister of Shamus Award, Double Dee (Best Odds: $5.50), on top. She has had three runs back from a spell, starting off with an unlucky second on Adelaide Cup Day before a close up third at the Valley to Pathways. Double Dee then went to Seymour (Metro) and worked home okay on a shifty track when fourth to Hot Ruby. Firm track looks ideal, Ollie on board, finally draws a decent gate and strikes a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Getting back onto a dry track should also suit the Robert Smerdon trained Celeritas (Best Odds: $4.20). She struck a shifty soft track last start at Geelong (Metro) and ran well without really threatening, finishing fourth to Bel Seal, beaten just over two lengths. Dunn sticks with the mare, she draws to get a sweet trip just off the speed and is rock hard fit.
Roughie: Shysta (Best Odds: $21.00) is a local trained by Aaron Purcell that has had two runs back from a spell. She ran last when resuming here behind Marwood before going to Ballarat and running midfield behind Act Of Valour. She does take a couple of runs to find her best, so being third up now, she should be ready to show something, she loves wet tracks and looks suited by the rise to 1400m.

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Race Seven (2:45pm) : Wheelie Waste Grand Annual Steeplechase 5500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Leaning towards Lord Of The Song (Best Odds: $2.25). He has a fabulous record at Warrnambool and is in great form leading up to this after scoring a dominant win in the Great Eastern (4950m) at Oakbank, winning by a space thanks to a gun steer from one of the worlds best jump riders in Steve Pateman, who sticks. Couple of trials since have been good, and he is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: Dhaafer (Best Odds: $16.00) needed the run first up over 1700m here before getting back over the sticks and performing much better over 3200m at Ballarat behind Regina Coeli, beaten seven lengths. He has the fresh legs leading up to this, trained on the track and loves give in the ground.
Roughie: Seeking The Silver (Best Odds: $15.00) ran fourth to Lord Of The Song in the Great Eastern, though beaten some 12 lengths. He then ran a couple of weeks back at Ballarat and worked home strongly when third to Regina Coeli. He has placed twice from as many runs at the Bool and he’ll lap up the 5500m.

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Race Eight (3:20pm) : Sungold Milk Warrnambool Cup 2350m: Form Guide

Back Me: Looks a two horse race between the quinella of the Terang Cup, Tall Ship and Tuscan Fire (Best Odds: $8.00). But I am keen on Tuscan Fire to turn the tables. He was given an absolute peach by Ollie at Terang and deserved the win, but Tall Ship had the soft trip and the last say, grabbing victory in the last hop. Meets Tall Ship 2.5kg better for a nose defeat, plus he looks better suited up to 2350m than Tall Ship.
Big Danger: Tall Ship (Best Odds: $3.60) has won his past three starts in brilliant fashion, though Rawiller almost butchered him at Terang, electing to stay in and wait than make a move. It was more the class and brilliance that won the horse the race, not the horse. He has won at this distance range overseas, but against nothing. This is a pretty strong edition of the Cup, and he does meet his main rival significantly worse off at the weights. In saying that, he still will go close given his brilliance.

Roughie: The real interesting runner here is Arch Fire (Best Odds: $31.00), who ran over the jumps last time out at Ballarat, but jumped terribly and last behind Beer Garden. Smerdon has elected to run him in the Cup and not a jumps race, so that is intriguing in itself. The horse is a swimmer and loves this distance range, so I’d closely watch market moves.

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Race Nine (4:00pm) : Mercedes-Benz Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Ordinary borderline pathetic race. Not a race I am keen on at all, but If I had to go with one, I’d lean towards Luckyi’mbarefoot (Best Odds: $6.00) who was okay first up at Flemington behind Mr Utopia. He is on his home track now, two time second up winner…but he is very hard to trust.
Big Danger: Ventic (Best Odds: $3.80) is a handy sprinter who is never too far away from the action, and he looked home at big odds last time out at Geelong (Metro), but just couldn’t quite hold out Bel Seal in a close finish. Given there are plenty of horses resuming here, I suspect Bayliss will roll forward and run along, giving his unfit rivals something to chase.
Roughie: The watch horse is clearly Honourable Aussie (Best Odds: $8.00), who has his first run for Darren Weir after formerly being with John Thompson and Patinack. Hasn’t raced in 12 months, but we know the genius that is Weir can get these seemingly ordinary horses to find a new lease of life. Market moves have to be watched closely.

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Race Ten (4:40pm) : The Standard Handicap (78) 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Olivier (Best Odds: $6.50) was a strong first up winner at Sandown, then was really just too bad to be true last time out at Caulfield behind Sunday Escape, finishing 11th, beaten five lengths. Rawiller rides the horse very well, so him back on is a positive, and I’ll put that flop down to the ‘Second Up Syndrome. Expecting him to bounce back.
Big Danger: Beckon (Best Odds: $15.00) was well backed to win last time out at Geelong, where he attempted to lead all the way, but just felt the pinch late when running fourth, beaten 0.7L. He loves give in the ground, so he gets conditions to suit here, looks as though he won’t get too much pressure getting across, and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Run Diego (Best Odds: $31.00) just totally wasn’t suited when resuming at Geelong behind Kraftwerk, carrying 60.5kg despite not winning in a very long time. Looks better weighted now with 57.5kg, Chris Parnham steers, draws well, loves wet ground, good second up record and races well at the Bool.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 3, 6

Leg Three: 3, 5, 8, 9

Leg Four: 10, 13

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.