7/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

The Parks track at Morphettville is where Adelaide metro racing takes place this Saturday, bearing in mind the two jumps races will be on the course proper. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

Really good placement by Robert Hickmott when it comes to an in form 5 Frankly Harvey (Bet Now: $2.20), who comes here in winning form having got the job done last Wednesday on a bog Sandown track, where he had things to suit on speed and kicked strongly when required. Love the booking of Sairyn Fawke. He’ll bounce straight to the front and hopefully the ‘Fawke Lift’ can get him home.

2 Connery (Bet Now: $3.00) looks the one to beat with the superior form lines. Just a little concerned about how well he is going. He ran over the mile at the Valley last time and was held by Junipal, but didn’t get the clearest of paths in the run when appearing to have something to offer. Looks to get the run of the race from the inside gate with the claim for Jack Martin…on form, he’s the one. Just can’t back him personally.

If they do overdo it in front, 4 Mr Gustavo (Bet Now: $18.00) could be the closer. He ran over the mile on the course proper here last time where he was just off the speed throughout and was there to do something positive but just whacked away when down the track behind Tatoosh. Back to this level should suit him and his lone run at this track did result in a win.

2 Ascot Red (Bet Now: $1.55) should put these away. Poor jumping cost him dearly first up at Casterton before going to Ballarat for Grand National Day where he was jumping much better and his class came to the fore late when challenged, winning impressively. Looks to have a stack of upside left and I think he will be much better suited on firmer footing, which he gets here.

3 Historic (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the key and perhaps only serious threat to Ascot Red. He comes here off the back of an absolute spank job of his rivals in the Great Western Steeple at Coleraine, sitting near the speed throughout before taking the lead at the second last jump and he bolted up. If he can reproduce that here, he’s surely in the mix as a winning chance.

Can make a small case for the 12YO veteran 4 Caroun (Bet Now: $12.00). He comes through the Ascot Red race at Ballarat on Grand National Day and before the turn, he was moving into the race like the winner but as soon as pressure was applied, the wheels were spinning on the wet track. Gets back on firmer footing and is back home, so he can run an improved race.

7 Written In Roses (Bet Now: $3.50) is on debut in a benchmark race but I think she’ll be beating these. She trialled up brilliantly earlier in the year before being spelled. Given a good break and has had two Flemington jumpouts in readiness for her debut, and each time she has looked impressive. On paper, a tough ask to debut in town in a benchmark race, but I think she’s handy and can get away with it.

3 Hearty Lass (Bet Now: $2.00) is a Wandjina filly for John Hyam that resumes. This girl had two runs in the Autumn to start her career, winning impressively on debut before running a solid fourth in the Queen Adelaide behind Absolute Flirt, a well performed filly from Melbourne, so I don’t think that form reads too bad for this and her two trials leading in have been good.

2 Grinzinger Express (Bet Now: $9.00) is a former Hayes/Dabernig runner that is now under the care of Karen Byrnes. Had three runs for the former stable, the latest coming a couple of months back at Gawler (Metro) when on speed and just feeling the pinch late when second to Magic Phantom. I think 1000m is her go, she gets the claim, good draw…she’ll run well.

2 Romelo (Bet Now: $6.00) is better suited on bog tracks, but I think he can take this out. He contested a Gawler hurdle last time out where he took on three stablemates and his flat speed came to the fore late when challenged, winning nicely. He’s definitely a working progress re jumping, but looks to have upside and his flat speed will carry him a long way towards victory here.

There was good support for 4 Beyond Thankful (Bet Now: $17.00) to beat Romelo at Gawler last time and he looked to be going quite well out the back in the small field but didn’t really fire a shot when pressure was applied and was most disappointing, plodding away for third. Perhaps a more genuine tempo will suit him and in terms of proven jump form, he’s the one to beat.

9 Hurricaine (Bet Now: $11.00) could be a big improver here. He’s had two runs this time in, both on bog tracks, the latest on Grand National Day at Ballarat, where he really struggled to pick his feet up late after appearing to travel well in the run. Has been trialling very well over the jumps and stable is having a really good run at the moment, so giving him a chance here.

8 Shop Til I Drop (Bet Now: $2.30) can continue her winning ways. Big win from the back two starts ago at Murray Bridge before racing over 1800m on the course proper here where she looked in a tricky spot on the turn but found clear air in the straight and finished off with real purpose to get the job done in impressive fashion. Up to 1950m should be no issue and is the one for me.

5 Dr Dependable (Bet Now: $3.50) should have no issue with the trip. He ran over the mile at Murray Bridge last Wednesday and gee I thought the win was huge given he did work in the run out wide on speed and was there to be run down, but he showed good ticker in the straight to hold on and win. Off that, the 1950m here is no issue and he should have upside.

There does look to be a tail to this race outside the first two. 6 Cavalry Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) has a good record at the track and can roll forward, like she did when winning five back over the 1550m here. Hasn’t won since but her runs have been good, and with the claim, she gets down to 52kg, so I say her best chance of winning will be leading and looking to control things to suit herself.

Happy to be in the corner of 5 Magic Sunset (Bet Now: $2.40) again. Nice change up speed to win first up at Murray Bridge (Metro) before going to the 1200m on the course proper here last time when wide no cover on speed and did a huge job to get as close as she did when third to Bayou. How much did that take out of her? Time will tell, but better luck and she can bounce back into the winners list.

2 Magna Bella (Bet Now: $3.50)comes through the Bayou race from two weeks back on the course proper and I think it was a rather ordinary steer from Lewis German. Just hooked it straight back to last, then was the widest runner on the turn, spotting them an impossible start. Did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. If she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take some beating.

1 Freehearted (Bet Now: $7.50) looks well suited back to this level. Tough winner two back over 1050m on the course proper before going to the Spring Stakes when pouring the pressure on in front and rightfully dropped out behind Dalasan. That form was franked via Scales Of Justice in the Memsie, which just reads so well for a Mares 75 Handicap. Hard to beat.

5 Exalted Adam (Bet Now: $19.00) on top. Grant Young trains this talented animal, who resumes here after a pretty ordinary Autumn prep, but I just don’t think he came up at all, so penning that campaign. He sprints well fresh, usually, and has had two trials in readiness for his return, given a good hitout each time, so fitness won’t be an excuse I don’t think and hopefully they go quick in front so he can have last look.

3 Arrow Lane (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the leader and I’m sure he’ll give a decent sight at odds. That’s what he did over 1050m on the course proper two weeks ago and gave a good kick but just tired late when second to Prairie Fire. Decent enough record on the Parks track and for mine is better suited at 1200m. Looks the leader and with Fawke remaining on, he’ll be hard to run down.

Want to give 8 Buried Treasure (Bet Now: $7.00) another chance. He trialled up very well prior to resuming here a few weeks ago on the course proper where had a good run just off the speed and once he got the split, he presented to win, but just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Kemalpasa. Has the run under the belt now and hopefully this son of Clangalang can get firmer footing.

7 Bolt I Am (Bet Now: $9.00) hasn’t won in nearly a year but I think his time to shine is now. He’s been quite good in recent starts without winning but I think his turn is coming here. He ran over 1200m on the course proper two weeks and found the line well after getting back in the run when third to the above average Aiguilette. Think 1400m will suit him and is the one to beat IMO.

Good test here for 6 Nistaan (Bet Now: $1.90) to see how well he has truly come back. He was backed with confidence first up at the midweeks at Balaklava and under Vorster, booted clear early on in the straight and spanked his rivals. Has always showed good promise throughout his career but there is a bit of depth to this line up, so while he’s hard to beat, wouldn’t want to take anything silly short.

10 Sunmate (Bet Now: $13.00) was impressive to start the prep, winning 2/2, before contesting the Aiguilette race from a fortnight ago where he got back in the run and was there to let down at the top of the straight but he just whacked away and ran fifth. Perhaps he’s looking for 1400m, which he gets here, and off his wins prior, I think he can measure up in town.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Shop Til I Drop

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Written In Roses

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Exalted Adam

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight): 

Leg One: 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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