7/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Flemington Finals day

The biggest raceday at Flemington for the Winter comes around this Saturday where it is Finals Day, a nine race card full of quality and potential Spring Carnival contenders. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

I think the upside clearly lies with 1 Casa De Lago (Bet Now: $8.00). Just fair in her first two runs this time in but bounced back in a big way last Wednesday at the Valley. If you were on her and looked at her in isolation, she was the winner a fair way out and it was just a matter of getting clear air, which she got at the top of the straight and won accordingly. Tough mile will suit her, upside and stable is flying.

I’ll include 4 Mintha (Bet Now: $2.40) but in terms of upside or petrol left in the tank, I’m not sure what’s there. Jamie Kah gave the filly every chance last Wednesday at the Valley but she just didn’t finish off like we know she can and whacked away for a well held second to Casa De Lago. Start prior here was a beauty and off that, she’d be the one to beat.

7 Pageantry (Bet Now: $4.80) has shown a bit of promise in two runs for Darren Weir after formerly being with the Freedman camp. Worked home strongly last time out over 1400m at Geelong behind the above average Diamond Bow. Tick over trial win at Warrnambool on Tuesday was very good and if she brought her best, she’s good enough to win.

3 Grand Dreamer (Bet Now: $6.50) and hoping we get some rain on the track. He had specking at double figure odds last time out in the Swan Hill Cup where he got a mile back in the run but worked home very strongly and probably wins in another few strides when third to Victory Downs. Up to 2000m, big track, upside…all big ticks.

Not backing 5 Sixties Groove (Bet Now: $1.80) again, but due to a lack of opposition here, he surely goes close to winning this. Yendall gave him every possible hope last Saturday and on the turn, it was no betting, but he turned it up and Pacodali nabbed him. 2000m, big track, cold ride…if he’s genuine, he puts them away.

1 Killarney Kid (Bet Now: $26.00) could be a potential improver. He hasn’t raced for three weeks since finishing down the track at the Valley over the mile behind Magic ‘Phar Lap’ Consol. He has a fab record at Flemington and the two jumps trials since to sharpen him up have been really good. At his best, he goes close.

4 Hussy’s Glow (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Patrick Payne trained mare who is going so well at the moment. Brilliant finale to win two back over 1300m on the Parks track before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where she peeled and presented as the winner but Miles Of Krishan just proved too good. Has that run under the belt now and should be stronger late.

1 Miss Gunpowder (Bet Now: $6.50) has got a few lengths on these in terms of class but with that, she’s got to carry 60kg and 6kg more than the others. Comes through a couple of heats of the Winter Championship where she placed both times behind Ozi Choice and Chamois Road. This looks her go…just has to carry the weight.

7 Dreams Of Paris (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Mitch Beer trained mare who was a notable drifter in betting when resuming in the Miles Of Krishan race here a fortnight back but despite the market drift, she ran really well, closing off well from worse than midfield to run third to the Hayes/Dabernig mare. Can sit closer in the run from the draw and has a very good second up record.

4 Mount Kilcoy (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the one on the up for the Weir team. Smart maiden win two back at Sandown before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he had three wide cover before eventually getting clear and while he lacked the turn of foot, he closed off really well late behind Remember The Name. I think he’s got more to give compared to most of these.

1 Gaulois (Bet Now: $4.20) is a beauty for James Cummings now. He was a cat once upon a time, but looks to have really turned the corner since coming to Melbourne, winning impressively at the Valley before running third to Remember The Name at this track/distance after sitting wide no cover. Just needs better luck to run well.

5 Woulda Thought So (Bet Now: $11.00) has been teasing to win a race this prep but just isn’t quite there. He comes through the Remember The Name race where he sat three and four wide with plenty of cover before peeling on the turn. 250m out he looked the winner but he just lacked the final turn of foot required to win. Think he wants 2000m, but if they go quick here, he’s in the mix.

6 Goldifox (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Team Corstens trained filly who resumed with a good second at the Valley prior to racing in the Good ‘N’ Fast race where she tried hard but was just no match late. Doubt she turns the tables off that, but she does get a 2.5kg weight swing and draws much better this time around.

I think the obvious here has to be 1 Good ‘N’ Fast (Bet Now: $3.10) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. He was well backed when racing over 1400m here a fortnight back and despite sitting back off a slow tempo, he kept finding the line under Nolen and his last 100m was very good as he eventually got the upper hand. Mile looks no issue and he has the right form.

5 Pedicel (Bet Now: $6.50) is a prep away from showing her best I think but she looks talented. Debuted with a tough win at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where she whacked away to run fourth to Toulouse. She should eat up the mile here and perhaps racing the Melbourne way will spark something positive.

I think 3 Swacadelic (Bet Now: $7.50) is the pony to bet on. A few of these come through the Choysa race a few weeks back and that horse just stole it, with some very negative rides from behind. This bloke had no chance to run on and in the end didn’t do a bad job. I think if he gets out and builds momentum early, he’s the one to beat.

2 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $9.00) is bursting to win a race and he gets a chance here. Loomed large over 2500m a fortnight back here outside Lycurgus but that horse just had the hard fitness edge and proved too good. Gets a 2kg weight pull for a 1L defeat and has more upside, so I’m confident he’s the horse to beat from that race that runs here.

If we happen to get a rain affected track, I’d give serious consideration to 11 Benall (Bet Now: $21.00). He is flying at the moment for the Geoff Cousins team, though he hasn’t raced since May 25 when bolting up over 2000m at Cranbourne. Fitness levels are the concern, but he’ll stay and a jumps trial on Tuesday was very good.

Has Darren Weir got the key to unlocking the best out of 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $1.40) ? This race will tell us. Every man and their dog is saying he’s a Group l horse in winning and needs to be snapped up for The Everest. Personally, I think The Everest talk is rubbish. Yep, his win a fortnight back here was dominant, and he ran time, but keep in mind he didn’t cop much pressure and was up against nothing. He should be winning, and would want to be winning this impressively, if he’s heading down that path. He’s on top, but could I take silly short odds? No.

8 Order Of Command (Bet Now: $14.00) put together a couple of really sharp wins prior to racing behind Nature Strip here a fortnight back where I thought he had his chance but in straight races, attempting to win when racing inside the pack is never a good recipe. I think with cover and peeling outside horses, he’ll be better off.

10 Egyptian Bullet (Bet Now: $27.00) has had a fab prep for the John McArdle team and she deserves a crack at this race. Won her first three races this time in prior to racing at the Valley three weeks ago where she ran a game fifth to Usain Bowler after doing work in the run. Has won down the straight and is very well in at the weights.

You know what you’re going to get with 5 Jacquinot Bay (Bet Now: $20.00). You’ll get a run for your money and he won’t give it up, unlike some in this race. He hasn’t raced since June 2 when scoring a dominant win over the Valley mile, beating Rib Eye, who was luckless last Saturday. Form out of that has been solid enough and he loves Flemington.

6 Ozi Choice (Bet Now: $4.20) is the unknown at 1600m, but he’s reaching peak fitness and is in form. Dominant win over 1400m here two back before racing at the same track/distance where I thought he had his chance when second to Chamois Road. If it was 1400m, he’d be on top. Just not sure about him at a strong 1600m.

Easy to see why 8 Cool Chap (Bet Now: $8.00) is popular considering his form this time in. You don’t have to go too far back to see him finish three lengths off Happy Clapper in the Doncaster, the best mile race in Australia. Three runs since have been solid and he does like Flemington, so I think he has to go in everything.

1 Hellova Street (Bet Now: $4.50) is just a bulldog and it’s hard to get away from him. 1200m is probably short of his best, but he has shown on numerous occasions that he can measure up in good races in Melbourne, and he does have a real liking for Flemington, albeit never down the straight. Trials back home in Tassie have been great, and he’s a proven weight carrier.

4 Camdus (Bet Now: $7.00) is one horse who does like racing down the straight and should be respected. He ran over 1200m at the Valley three weeks ago and worked home okay without really threatening behind the ripper that is Widgee Turf. He’s a horse best suited when outside horses with clear air, so if that eventuates, he has to be respected.

10 Typhoon Jolie (Bet Now: $20.00) is a John Sadler trained mare who is racing okay at the moment and I reckon at this level with the potential to get a soft lead, she could go close. Sat on speed at the Valley a few weeks ago and just felt the pinch late when fourth to Jamaican Rain. Back to 1200m suits and is a threat if she jumps cleanly.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Hellova Street

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Mount Kilcoy

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Jacquinot Bay

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 11

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 10

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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