Racing continues at Moonee Valley this Saturday with another strong nine race card. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:20pm) : Pendragon @ Think Big Stud Handiap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Safariann (Best Odds: $6.00) on top for me here. She trialled really well at Cranbourne prior to her debut on the Geelong Synthetic where she sat off the speed before peeling out on the turn and letting down powerfully to win and win impressively and running very slick time. Step up in class should be no issue and she looks well above average.
Big Danger: Alucinari (Best Odds: $3.80) was favourite last time out on the Geelong Synthetic, and the daughter of Street Cry just pinged over from the wide and led all the way, bolting in and winning by a space. This race isn’t overly strong, she has shown she has pretty slick gate speed so the wide gate will be no issue, and the stable has had a remarkable run with their youngsters.
Roughie: Dangerous Breeding (Best Odds: $9.00) was unwanted in betting on debut in the Gold Strike at Warrnambool, but after a lovely trail just off the speed, the filly showed a lovely turn of foot and sprinted clear late to win impressively. Trialled last week at Cranbourne and went alright when running fourth. Draws awkwardly here, but there was plenty to like about the debut.
Race Two (12:55pm) : Essendon Nissan Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mr Pago (Best Odds: $7.50) was supported at odds last time out at Flemington and the mini plunge almost came off when he charged home to just miss out on picking up Thermogenic. Stays at the mile which should suit and the stable has a pretty decent strike rate when sending horses to the Valley.
Big Danger: It’s About You (Best Odds: $6.00) was an alarming drifter in that Mornington race, yet thanks to a gem steer from Regan Bayliss, the son of Snitzel proved too good, albeit winning narrowly. The drop in weight looks ideal, as does the rise to 1600m, and being third up now, she should be ready to show her peak.
Roughie: Pure Addiction (Best Odds: $26.00) wasn’t too far away from them at Flemington behind Thermogenic, running ninth, beaten just over two lengths. Her run prior to that at Sale (Metro) was quite solid also, so the ability is there, she gets in here with no weight on her back and is bred to handle some give in the ground. Definite chance at odds.
Race Three (1:30pm) : ADAPT Australia Handicap (84) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Noela’s Choice (Best Odds: $11.00) stormed home from the back to finish a close up fifth in a similar race at Pakenham before going to Sale and working home well late when a close up second to Whistle Baby. That was her second run since a five week break, so she should be peaking here and will be suited by the rise in distance.
Big Danger: Flying Aurora (Best Odds: $6.50) comes back to the mile after running over 2000m at Flemington last time out when an unlucky third to Sure You Can after getting held up a touch early on in the straight and getting a chance to build up momentum. Ollie has a great record on her, and he is back on. Draws well, on the limit…hard to beat.
Roughie: Coronation Shallan (Best Odds: $17.00) didn’t run too bad last Saturday when sixth to Orion, beaten just over two lengths after getting an inside run on the turn, and I don’t think the inside was the spot to be. She should be near ready to peak now third up from a break, and the seven day back up is no issue, because she ran well on the quick back up at the end of last prep.
Race Four (2:05pm) : Cafetto Handicap (70) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Very hard race to sort out. Going to lean towards Spencer Street (Best Odds: $8.50). He charged home from the back to get the job done during the Warrnambool Carnival before coming to this track/distance last Saturday and running a brave race when fifth to Academy Jack, beaten a length after coming six and seven horses wide on the turn. The fast tempo will suit his racing pattern, and his form pattern suggests that when he finds form, he generally holds it. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Rock ‘N’ Gold (Best Odds: $6.00) was heavily backed to win last week at Seymour and he looked home when attempting to lead all the way, but he was grabbed in the last stride by a proven city performer in Inspector. His jump outs were fantastic and his two runs back from a break have been excellent. Definite threat.
Roughie: Last Sight (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here for Stephen Brown after a strong Spring/Summer, with the highlight being a win over this track/distance in December under the lights. His jump out last Friday was pretty sharp, he won well first up last time in and here, he’ll be on speed and out of trouble. If there is any hint of on speed bias, he’s the one.
Race Five (2:45pm) : Dominant Cafetto Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Wild Rain (Best Odds: $5.50) on top for me here in a tricky event. She stuck on okay first up down the Flemington straight behind Face Forward before going to Morphettville, and thanks to an aggressive ride from Ollie, the filly proved far too good for her rivals, though her rivals weren’t as strong and talented compared to what she faces here, but she has a tidy record at the track, Ollie sticks, draws well and third up last time in she bolted in. Happy to be with her.
Big Danger: More Radiant (Best Odds: $10.00) has come back in great order. She got the job done first up at Tatura before running third to Face Forward at Flemington, then getting revenge on that filly at their next outing, winning and comfortably holding Face Forward. Drawn awkwardly here, but she is versatile in the sense that she can be ridden back, and I think that is what will eventuate given there is good speed drawn inside her.
Roughie: Alaska (Best Odds: $51.00) could be the improver here at odds. She trialled really well at Cranbourne before resuming at Geelong (Metro) and just pulled too hard when a tiring fifth to Illustrious Lad, beaten 5.7L. Her two runs at this track have both resulted in unlucky efforts, behind a handy filly in Ignition and then Reldas, who at the time, was the in form galloper in Victoria. Definite chance at odds.
Race Six (3:25pm) : Cafetto Clean Handicap (84) 1509m: Form Guide
Back Me: Yesterday’s Songs (Best Odds: $2.10) on top for me here. He worked home well at Stakes level at Morphettville behind Thermal Current before going to the Goodwood (1200m) and working home late behind Flamberge. This is a massive drop in grade, up in trip looks ideal…just looks the one.
Big Danger: Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $19.00) drops back in depth after contesting a Winter Championship Heat at Flemington when working home okay to finish fifth to Mr Utopia, beaten just over two lengths. Up to 1500m is a query, but she has a soft gate, Moloney sticks, and when she is cuddled up, she does have a lethal finishing burst.
Roughie: Arctic Song (Best Odds: $7.50) was well backed to win last time out at Flemington where he attempted to lead all the way, and 400m out he looked the one to beat, but he just felt the pinch the last 150m to finish sixth to Whistle Baby, beaten 2.7L. I think he is better when he has a bunny to chase, and I think from the good gate here with Walker sticking, he should prove hard to beat.
Race Seven (4:05pm) : Dominant Handicap 2040m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Kenjorwood (Best Odds: $2.40) here. He bolted up two back, winning by a space, then again attempted to lead all the way, but couldn’t quite hold out the finishing burst of handy three year old stayer Magicool. This looks a lovely race for him and I’m expecting him to bounce back to winning form.
Big Danger: Digitalism (Best Odds: $10.00) was a real eye catcher last Saturday when running fourth to Metaphorical. He had a sweet run on the fence, then when the leaders sprinted, he was completely left flat footed, but once balanced up, he attacked the line with real purpose. He should have no trouble running the distance and I like the fact he is on the quick back up.
Roughie: Cadillac Mountain (Best Odds: $14.00) has caught the eye in two runs back from a break, both on his home track at Caulfield, with the latest coming a couple of weeks back when sixth to the in form Red Bomber. Up to 2040m is ideal, he should be near peak fitness and has plenty of upside left.
Race Eight (4:40pm) : Cafetto Evo Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Judicial Rock (Best Odds: $6.00) on top for me here. She wasn’t too bad when resuming behind Hazard in a strong form race, then attempted to lead all the way and looked home, but the classy mare Miss Rose De Lago picked up and grabbed her right on the peg. Her two Moonee Valley runs have been behind classy gallopers at Stakes level, starting off with Cruden Bay on debut and then behind Minaj as a three year old filly. No class of that horse here, she should be ready to peak third up now and will be on speed.
Big Danger: Miss Promiscuity (Best Odds: $4.20) has been very good in three runs for the Hayes/Dabernig team, winning first up at Caulfield, then running second to Hazard at her next two, including the Proud Miss Stakes (1200m) at Morphettville. Gate one, Ollie aboard, and most notably the Blinkers come off. Definite threat.
Roughie: Sumakaray (Best Odds: $41.00) was just too bad to be true when resuming at Caulfield behind Play Master, running last, beaten over seven lengths. She generally does save her best for this track and now Michael Walker is on, and he has ridden the mare to success before, so don’t be surprised to see sharp improvement.
Race Nine (5:15pm) : William Hill Handicap (90) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tough race to close the card. Leaning towards the speedy galloper Boomwaa (Best Odds: $4.60). He tried very hard last time out in the Inglis Guineas (1400m) at Scone, running fifth to Loved Up, beaten just under three lengths. He races very well at the Valley, and given his racing pattern, and with a lightweight, he is going to take some catching.
Big Danger: Prince Harada (Best Odds: $5.50) was smashed in betting when resuming after a long layoff at Caulfield and duly saluted, then hasn’t been that flash since, most notably last time out when dropping out to run a bad last. Stewards Report found nothing wrong, so it’s hard to know where he is at, but the talent is there, Ollie up and his lone run here resulted in a fabulous win.
Roughie: Sea Lord (Best Odds: $15.00) resumes here for Stephen Brown after a pretty solid Winter/Spring, which was highlighted by a win on Geelong Cup Day. He has a tidy record first up, and runs very well at the Valley, and his recent jump outs have been pretty sharp. He’ll be either leading or sitting on the back of Boomwaa, so he is a definite chance I think.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Boomwaa
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Yesterday's Songs
VALUE: Race Eight Number 13 Judicial Rock
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 10, 12
Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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