The Warrnambool Carnival concludes on Thursday, headlined by the Warrnambool Cup (2350m) and the Grand Annual (5500m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out four metres from the 1300m-300m; True for the remainder.
Warrnambool Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Warrnambool Cup
Grand Annual Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Grand Annual Steeplechase
Race 1. (11:15) HAMMONDS PAINTS NOVICE HRDL 3200m
4 Valac (Bet Now: $1.75) does look to pick himself in the opener. Hayes/Dabernig trained veteran who made his jumping debut at Hamilton last time out. He led most of the way and was pretty strong to the line, although it wasn’t a win to jump up and down about. He needs to improve, but not too much given the depth here, as a whole, isn’t strong.
3 Eckhart (Bet Now: $3.70) has the Patrick Payne polish so he commands respect. Has had a stack of jump trials to get ready for this with his actual runs this prep being on the flat, where he hasn’t set the world alight, but to be expected. Stable rarely get it wrong when they send over the obstacles so watch the market.
1 Hierarchal (Bet Now: $11.00) is the top weight and has a touch of quality about his form. He ran at Pakenham last time out and just found the class a bit rich behind Instigator, who is a contender for the Galleywood on Wednesday, so by the time this race runs, you’ll know how strong the form line is.
Race 2. (11:45) TAB 2YO HCP 1200m
Playing a straight bat with 9 Under The Dunes (Bet Now: $2.00) for the Maher/Eustace camp. I thought she was a strong winner at Mornington last time out. Led throughout and was there to be run down, but found plenty under pressure and fended them off, safely holding. Form out of that race has been quite strong and from the inside gate, she gets run of the race.
Peter Chow has a few runners engaged here and I think the pick of them is 5 True Nobility (Bet Now: $13.00). They all clashed in a Terang jumpout a couple of weeks back and this guy was clearly the pick of them, closing off nicely late out wide under little pressure. Declan Bates is a regular rider for the stable and he has the ride.
8 Butter Blonde (Bet Now: $4.50) has done her best racing on wet ground, so she can run an improved race at odds. Hasn’t set the world on fire since the Spring but as I said, she did her best work on wet tracks, so she gets conditions to suit and with good early toe, she’ll lead and give a sight.
Race 3. (12:15) THE STANDARD (BM78) 1100m
2 Ocular (Bet Now: $1.95) on top. Fence in run has been been gold this Carnival and drawn barrier one, that is where he will be. Resumed at Cranbourne and worked home strongly from the back when second to a talented animal in Galenus. Gets run of the race from the draw and has class.
7 Kalkarni Royale (Bet Now: $4.40) is the interesting runner. I, like most, was quite keen on her chances when she resumed at Sandown. But the market took a mini set against her and it was spot on. Got back in the run and did try hard, but overall, she was pretty plain. Has to be given another chance.
Class wise, 4 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $16.00) has a bit of it. Problem is he hasn’t won since Moses parted the sea. He has proper Saturday metro form and comes up against a field which are mainly provincial/country class. One quiet Cranbourne jumpout to get ready, watch the market and see what it does with him.
Race 4. (12:45) CATANACH'S JEWELLERS (BM78) 1400m
A fair few of these are either first up, early in the prep, or out of form. I hope Pat Moloney just lets 7 Withcfulthinking (Bet Now: $9.00) run. Clearly she is a nut case who only knows one way to run. Usually, that won’t work, but in a race like this, I think it could, and the form from last start at Caulfield has been ticked off.
1 I Am Eloquent (Bet Now: $3.60) is the class runner of the field and that will carry her a long way here I feel. Ran in the Distaff at Caulfield last time out and while she had her chance, she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Thousand Wishes. With the claim, she is quite well in at the weights.
2 Jester Halo (Bet Now: $34.00) seems to only run well when Christine Puls steers and she is back on for the first time in a while. Recent runs have been quite sound, but nothing like her form from earlier in the career. But the booking of Puls back on could spark the required improvement from her.
Race 5. (13:15) LUDEMAN REAL ESTATE (BM64) 2000m
I think the Maher/Eustace team win the race. Just a matter of being on the right one. I think it’ll be 14 Poppy Joan (Bet Now: $5.50), a lightly raced mare that has done little wrong in her short career to date. Sat on speed over 2200m at Bendigo last time out and battled on pretty well when third to Prince Romany. Blinkers go on to sharpen her up because she does appear one paced, so I expect Johnny Allen to roll forward.
13 She’s A Karaka (Bet Now: $10.00) is the one with upside. Just a little query at 2000m. But, she was very good fresh at the mile at Pakenham, closing off hard late, just missing out on picking up Mostly Sunny. Interesting that in two runs at the track, she hasn’t fired, and is yet to prove herself at the trip, so there are a couple of queries. But she’s in the right camp.
1 Wazuzu (Bet Now: $20.00) will be winning races over the jumps this season I’m sure. Handy animal for Lisa Whelan that resumed at Terang and he was a real eye catcher from the back when fourth to the in form National Guard. Is a winner at the track/distance, and gets in pretty well after the claim.
Race 6. (13:50) EVERGREEN TURF N WILSON (BM70) 1700m
1 Dogmatic (Bet Now: $8.00) was scratched early on Monday from the Tuesday meet to instead run here, so I think that is a lead that the stable are keen on his chances here. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Mornington in a fast run race. He then went to Ballarat and I liked the way he finished his race off. Third up, hard fit and Josh Richards is an apprentice that is in form.
7 Tooradin (Bet Now: $2.60) has the Maher/Eustace polish and comes here in winning form after leading throughout to win fresh over the mile at Pakenham. He was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Harder here, but upside and in a leading stable.
2 No Say In It (Bet Now: $12.00) has home track advantage and is a definite winning threat. Month between runs since contesting the Warracknabeal Cup where he was off the speed and did try hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Reserve Street. He seems to love getting his toe in, so he gets conditions to suit.
Race 7. (14:30) GRAND ANNUAL STEEPLECHASE 5500m
Each way, I don’t think you can go wrong backing 4 Spying On You (Bet Now: $10.00). Rising 12 years of age, but he is racing as well as ever having taken out the Great Eastern two back at Oakbank, beating home Zed Em. Had a prep run on the flat at Murray Bridge last time and I thought was pretty good there. Proven performer in this race and is just about in career best form.
1 Zed Em (Bet Now: $4.00) is a champion who will look the winner for the most part in this race I’m sure. There is just a little query of how well he is going this time around. Beaten late in the Von Doussa by Yensir before being held into second behind Spying On You. But, he’s a big race performer and isn’t too badly in at the weights.
6 Napoleon (Bet Now: $8.00) is a high quality jumper from NZ who has come over with this race in mind. Loved the way he knuckled down to win at Pakenham last time, showing his class late when wearing them down. Is a winner at 4150m on testing ground in NZ, and placed at 6400m, so the trip is no issue.
Race 8. (15:15) KIA HCP 1400m
The query on genuine wet ground is the only thing stopping 6 Fighting Harada (Bet Now: $1.80) being a genuine $1.50 chance and bolting up here. The Price/Kent team have done a fab job with this guy, nursing him back to health and further to that, he has come back as good as ever. If he handles a shifty track, no betting, he wins.
7 Inspensable (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Paul Preusker trained gelding that is racing very well at the moment. Few weeks between runs since slogging it out best on testing ground to win at Ballarat over the mile. He seems to be holding his form really well at the moment and is some sort of threat to Fighting Harada.
4 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $7.50) has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Just a matter of where he is at. Showed such promise early on in his career but the wheels fell off big time soon after. Has jumped out well leading in and we know his best is more than capable of giving Fighting Harada a scare.
Race 9. (15:55) WARRNAMBOOL CUP 2350m
I just have to back 3 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $12.00) each way at the odds. He is a hard horse to catch, but there are a couple of reason why I am keen on him running well. Firstly, he is a proven performer at Warrnambool. Second, he gets to a more suitable trip. Third and most important, is the gear change of Blinkers back on. Last two times that gear change has been done, he was excellent in the Herbert Power and in the Autumn he ran a beauty in the Chairmans at Randwick. Can only see him running well.
12 Heart Of Puissance (Bet Now: $3.70) gets his preferred conditions and could well blow this field away if he runs up to his win two back at Warwick Farm. Last start in the Terang Cup, I thought he just had too much to do from there he was behind Wentwood. Johnny Allen rides him better than most and he is back on.
Can you trust 10 South Pacific (Bet Now: $15.00). Import that had done nothing really, so he was gelded and first run without his jewels came at Caulfield, where he worked home strongly from the back behind Mohican Heights. Form from that race has been solid and Maher/Eustace 2000m+ are lethal.
Race 10. (16:30) NO FUSS EVENT HIRE (BM64) 1300m
11 Yarra Boy (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in the get out. Lindsey Smith combines with Olly for this lightly raced son of Bull Point. Impressive debut winner at Ballarat on testing ground before going to Bendigo where I thought he was a good thing. Just lacked the killer blow to put them away, perhaps a touch flat off a gutbusting debut. Like the mini freshen up for him and appears hard to beat.
14 Pig In Mud (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Street Boss for the Freedman camp that resumes. Hasn’t raced since January 23 at Sandown when down the track in a small field won by a then progressive Milton Park. Has jumped out well leading in and Jamie Kah has won on the horse previously.
13 Garbo (Bet Now: $26.00) would be a great result for locals given Jane Baker trains on the track. This gelding saves his best for his home track and comes here in good form. Resumed over 1200m when near the speed and he battled on pretty well behind a smart one in Sig Positano. Lands near the front here and will run an honest race.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Fighting Harada
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 9 Under The Dunes
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Gallic Chieftain
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten)
Leg One: TBA
Leg Two: 6
Leg Three: 3, 4, 10, 12, 15
Leg Four: 4, 11, 13, 14
$50 Investment = % of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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