Racing returns to Doomben this Saturday for a pretty strong eight event program, with a couple of races looking as if there is value to be found. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 1.5 metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One: St Vincents Mt Olivet Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Emerald City (Bet Now: $4.60) is an in form gelding for the David Vandyke stable. He hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing over 2400m at Eagle Farm and taking an absolute eternity to wind up, but he did in the final stride. Gets really good weight relief here in a field that doesn’t appear overly strong, and I think back to 2000m won’t be an issue. Rates highly in my eyes.
Big Danger: 1 Amexed (Bet Now: $8.00) looked to travel well in the Tatts Cup last time out at Randwick but as stated post race, he just felt the rock hard track and dropped out behind Junoob. Should get lovely cushion here, he has these covered class wise and just needs to find form to go close to knocking this field off.
Long Shot: 8 Kaiser Franz (Bet Now: $6.50) is the big improver here I think. He ran over the mile at Eagle Farm last time out and just lacked a turn of foot but kept grinding away when beaten four lengths by the in form Lord Coconuts. During the Summer/Autumn, he was really effective at 2000m+ and he finally gets to that distance range this time in. Knockout chance
Race Two: Dr Lilian Cooper Handicap 1110m:
Back Me: 3 Eminent (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Choisir colt on debut for the Vandyke yard. Very rare to see the stable with two year old races but when they do produce them they are very good. He trialled at the Sunny Coast last week and bolted up, winning impressively by a margin and running time. Looks well educated and from the ones that have been seen publicly, he looks the pick.
Big Danger: 12 Silky Brown (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Captain Sonador filly that debuts for Team Guy. She trialled on her home track at the Gold Coast last week and she seemed to go about her business nicely in the run when second. Breed suggests she’ll come to hand early and the trial indicates that also. Definite contender.
Long Shot: 1 Acceptile (Bet Now: $3.50) had really good market support when racing at Eagle Farm last time out and the little plunge almost came off, but standing in his way was the strong finishing and heavily backed Arrestar. Hard fit now, draws well and has the solid race day experience under the belt.
Race Three: Zouki Group Handicap 1110m:
Back Me: 5 Downloading (Bet Now: $5.00) is a close relation to Buffering that resumes here. He led all the way on debut over 1050m here before running a couple of handy races and being spelled. Comes here with no trials, so fitness levels are unknown, but I think based on what we saw last prep, he’ll come to hand early and can definitely take this race out if his fitness levels are high. Market watch as as well as mounting yard.
Big Danger: 3 Tiyatraloni (Bet Now: $2.00) created a big impression in the early part of her career, winning her opening two before being somewhat outclassed or perhaps tired in the Champagne Classic behind Winning Rupert. No trials, so fitness levels are unknown, but if she runs up to her debut run, she’ll give this an almighty shake.
Long Shot: 12 Starcourt (Bet Now: $17.00) is a former Gary Moore runner that is now with Team Guy. Debuted back in February at Hawkesbury when finishing third to the subsequent Stakes performed Brulee. Credible Witness also comes out of that maiden and has won since. This horse won a trial at the Gold Coast last week, he draws well…knockout hope.
Race Four: The Eileen and William Duffus Memorial Handicap (80) 1350m:
Back Me: 2 Bidii Babe (Bet Now: $4.00) has been a model of consistency this time in for Rob Heathcoate. She has won two of her three runs this prep, the latest coming 1200m at Eagle Farm a fortnight back when sitting off speed and producing a lovely turn of foot to win. Not quite as dynamic at Doomben, but you can’t ignore that form that is beside her.
Big Danger: 11 Kim Noir (Bet Now: $7.50) absolutely bolted up over this track/distance last Wednesday, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in, running sharp time for her final 600m. With no weight on her back, I think she can certainly press forward again and take some beating provided there isn’t too much hear up near the lead.
Long Shot: 4 Kalandula (Bet Now: $51.00) is a handy mare for Bruce Hill that could sharply improve here third. Closed off well fresh on her home track at the Gold Coast behind Crooked Stick before going to Eagle Farm and finishing behind Bidii Babe. Does get a slight weight pull on that horse here, has more upside, senior jock steers and she runs well at Doomben.
Race Five: Assa Signs Handicap (80) 1350m:
Back Me: 1 Better Land (Bet Now: $3.90) will never reach the potential of his breeding, but it was good to see him win at start number one for Toby Edmonds over 1200m at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago. He sat near a pretty strong tempo and was under pressure before the turn, but Jeff Lloyd just kept at him and at him and the horse just kept finding to get a narrow but impressive win. Can perform well second up, and this isn’t a strong race.
Big Danger: 12 Butcher Blue (Bet Now: $9.00) hasn’t raced for five weeks since racing over the Eagle Farm mile where he had really good market support and kicked on strongly when challenged to win. Probably was looking for a break then, so I don’t mind the gap between runs, and I think ridden cold off a likely genuine tempo here, I think he could explode late.
Long Shot: 10 Shipwrecked (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over this track/distance on October 12 and was game in defeat behind Big Decision, settling off the speed and chasing hard all the way to be beaten a length. Form out of that hasn’t quite stood up, but he does tend to his best racing on the fresh side and that should see him quite effective here.
Race Six: Superior Food Service Plate (Class 3) 1110m:
Back Me: 5 Fiery Heights (Bet Now: $5.50) is an above average galloper that resumes for the Toby Edmonds stable. He contested some quality events during the early part of the Carnival, including a midfield effort behind Counterattack in the Fred Best. Trials have been outstanding and he sprints well fresh. Ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 1 Brooklyn Storm (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Bjorn Baker trained visitor from Sydney who comes here after two runs back from a break. He sat on speed at Randwick last time out and wasn’t beaten far behind the potential Stakes class mare in Nieta. Stable have a fab record when they travel. Big watch.
Long Shot: 3 Denarius (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy galloper that is first up for Brian Wakefield. Raceed three times during the Autumn, working home strongly in the first two runs before racing poorly at the Sunny Coast. He has a very good fresh record and at Doomben, and with a hot speed here, look for him to get back and be thundering home late.
Race Seven: Queensland X-Ray Handicap 1110m:
Back Me: 2 Hard Stride (Bet Now: $10.00) has been in really good touch this time in for Tony Sears. Pulled off a plonk to win fresh and has placed in the next two starts, and on both occasions he hasn’t been beaten far. Back to the short course at Doomben is really going to suit and if he can get a nice run either on or near the speed, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 6 Prompt Return (Bet Now: $4.40) got the points over Hard Stride when they met at Eagle Farm a fortnight back, with the horse heavily backed nad getting the job done after a lovely ride off the pace from Jeff Lloyd. He does seem more effective at Doomben, so that can only be a plus, he’s fit, in form…If anything, the negative might be how strong is he beyond 1000m.
Long Shot: 13 Too Good To Refuse (Bet Now: $6.50) is the clear watch horse. On talent and potential, he has a decent margin on these but his fitness levels are unknown. Was touted as a Derby horse during the Winter Carnival but he couldn’t quite reach that level so he was kept to the sprint/mile caper and the form reads for itself with efforts behind Counterattack and Tsaritsa. That just reads so well for a race like this.
Race Eight: Miss Mary Bedford Plate (Class 6) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Lord Coconuts (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing in career best form this time in for Tony Gollan. He ran over the Eagle Farm mile a fortnight back and chased hard all the way down the straight to score a narrow but decisive victory. Drops back from 90 grade to Class 6 and isn’t harshly treated at the weights. He looks the clear horse to beat on that basis.
Big Danger: 13 Privlaka (Bet Now: $3.10) did a very good job in defeat at Eagle Farm two weeks ago over 1400m given he was a touch wide most of the trip yet still chased hard all the way to ran within a lip of nabbing Friendly Dragon. Untried at the mile, which is some query, but on his last start effort, I think he will get it, and returning to Doomben will help that.
Long Shot: 7 Reckless Abandon (Bet Now: $15.00) is a horse who could be ready to show up here third run in from a break. He ran in the Friendly Dragon race and just held his position but he isn’t really a horse who performs early on in the prep. Might need this run also, but this isn’t a strong race and he has upside compared to most here.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Lord Coconuts
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Fiery Heights
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Hard Stride
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 10, 11, 12
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 13
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 14
$50 Investment= 4.76% of the dividend if successful
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