5/10/2013 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Randwick, Epsom Handicap day

Randwick racecourse will host New South Wales feature race meeting on Saturday in which it is Epsom Handicap day giving punters a bumper nine race program full of quality gallopers with every race on the day being either a Listed or Group class. The meeting features the Epsom Handicap, Flight Stakes, The Metropolitan, Gimcrack Stakes and the Roman Consul Stakes.

The current track condition is a Good 3 and the weather is meant to be kind to Sydney in lead up to race day meaning we will be racing on a Good come race time.

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Race One: Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Festivity is coming off a good trial in what was a reasonably quick when you look at the other trials on the day. The race i think will throw up some value and at $12 for a Gai Waterhouse 2yo i think she is a good each way bet.
Don’t Back Me: Tetsuko like every other runner in the field will be having her first start in the race and at $2.30 i am willing to risk her in the big field. She showed she had talent in the trials but race pressure is much different.
Big Danger: Lucky Raquie was impressive winning a trial over 850m in quick time, she is well bred and looks an early 2yo type.
Roughie: Kwinana is a Darley owned filly who has had just the one trial before this race. She is a $13 chance and Darley often throw in a good 2yo in this race.

$500 Festivity Free Bet

Race Two: Nsw T’bred Breeders’ Plate 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Ghibellines was super impressive in his only trial to date and it was won in a quick time. Comes out of the dominant Darley camp and if he lives up to his trial win he will be right in the finish.
Don’t Back Me: Law is likely to start in the market being out of Gai Waterhouses stable although the trial time he is coming through wasn’t very quick. Happy to leave him out but these races are always hard to predict.
Big Danger: Bold Circle has won both of his trials over 900m and that will definitely give him a bit of a fitness advantage heading into the race and if he can overcome the wide barrier im predicting he will race well.
Roughie: Sure And Fast isn’t coming out of a high profile stable so he should start at good odds in the race and i thought his trial was encouraging heading into the race on Saturday.

$500 Ghibellines Free Bet

Race Three: Apn Outdoor Craven Plate 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Honorius is coming out of the best form from any of the runners in the race. He can race handy which i think will be a massive advantage here as there doesn’t look to be much speed and he has a very good record over the distance despite not winning. He will get every chance from barrier 3 and i am expecting him to win which makes the $3.80 look decent value.
Don’t Back Me: Masked Marvel has been good at his two Australian starts although this is another tough field that he faces on Saturday. He will cary the top weight and his racing pattern of going back in the field i don’t think will suit so at $2.50 i will be betting around him.
Big Danger: Kelinni has a very good third up record which he will be on Saturday and has been given a trial to freshen him up for the race. He has a good record over the distance and his first two starts this preparation suggest he will go close here.
Roughie: Vaquera gets into the race on the lowest race and she really impressed me with her win first up over 1400m. She took a lot of riding in that race and it looks as though the 2000m will suit her better. He Winter campaign was good and she looks to have come back better making the $12 on offer good value.

$500 Honorius Free Bet

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Race Four: Coolmore Flight Stakes 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Arabian Gold had no luck last start in which she was heavily backed to beat Guelph. She draws well here in barrier 3 and her second up record is perfect and i think with the small field and most likely a lack of speed she will have the advantage over the odds on favourite on Saturday. I think the $3.30 will shorten come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Bound For Earth beat Guelph first up although over further and second up Guelph was too good and the top two selections will beat her again on Saturday.
Big Danger: Guelph won impressively against most of these last start despite a betting drift and she can definitely do it again. Although with the conditions in the race the value runner of the only two hopes is my on top selection.
Roughie: She’s Bella i feel will look to go forward in the race as there doesn’t look to be much speed and if she gets some easy sectionals she could steal the race at $34.

$500 Arabian Gold Free Bet

Race Five: Roman Consul Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Barbed was super impressive winning last time out which was only his second career start were he beat some good horses. Looks the type to improve with distance and he will go close on Saturday at $5.
Don’t Back Me: Va Pensiero won over this distance two starts ago although he received absolutely no pressure up front and was given every chance. I doubt he will get that on Saturday so i can’t see him winning.
Big Danger: Zoustar was very good when winning last start although he drops back in distance here which i don’t like but despite that he is definitely the class horse in the race and must be kept safe.
Roughie: Flak Jacket had no luck at his first up start this preparation in which he was well backed and should have won. Trained by Grahame Begg who often can get them to improve substantially in this big races and at $34 he must be kept safe.

$500 Barbed Free Bet

Race Six: Tab Dulcify Qlty 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Equator i thought was very good last start despite what the margin suggests. He went back in the run and it was a slow tempo throughout so he was given no chance of winning. There looks to be more speed in this race and at $10 in betting i think he is the horse to beat which suggests he is at very good value.
Don’t Back Me: Thunder Fantasy has won his last two races although this looks a much tougher task and at the current odds of $3.40 i will be betting around him in the race.
Big Danger: Rock Hero was super impressive winning by a big margin last start and i think he will be able to handle the step up in grade on Saturday. He will go to the front and dictate the race and if he can have a relatively easy run he will be very hard to beat.
Roughie: The Special Two won her first two career starts before failing last time out against some good quality older horses although she hit the line well. She steps up in distance here which i think will suit and there looks to be decent speed in the race which boosts her chances. At $15 in betting she looks a good each way chance.

$500 Equator Free Bet

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Race Seven: The Star Epsom Hcp 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Sacred Falls has been good at his two starts this preparation and he has been ticking over nicely for this race. He will go into this race very well suited and has won over the track and distance when beating Pierro. Currently $13 in betting and is a massive player in the race.
Don’t Back Me: Toydini won the Newcastle Cup at his last start in what was a very good win although this is a much tougher race and from the barrieri think he will be posted wide. He has only won once at the track from four tries so ill be risking him at the odds.
Big Danger: Riva De Lago put in a massive run last start when winning. He went back in a slowly run race and swept wide and hit the line very strongly to score an emphatic victory. There should be more speed in this race and i think he can make it back to back wins on Saturday were he is a $15 chance.
Roughie: Rekindled Interest showed he was back to his best at Moonee Valley last start when carrying a massive weight and wasn’t beaten far in what is now a good form race. He drops 5.5kg here and will be right in the finish at very good odds of $19.

$500 Sacred Falls Free Bet

Race Eight: Premiere Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Pinwheel is a very consistent galloper who has only been unplaced twice from twenty tries over the distance. He has drawn an ideal barrier and his first up form is very good. He will be able to camp behind the leaders and his class should prevail in the later stages of the race making the $7 look great odds.
Don’t Back Me: Decision Time had every chance last start and from that race he goes up in weight and finds just as tough a race. Yet to place over the track and distance from two tries so i will be betting around him on Saturday.
Big Danger: Dystopia went back last start and hit the line very well in what was a race that didn’t suit her running pattern. Her second up form is good and i think she will take a lot from the first up run and at $26 she looks a very good each way bet.
Roughie: Famous Seamus will go back so the wide barrier shouldn’t be an issue and his run last start was very encouraging when hitting the line well in what was a slowly run race. There looks to be good speed in this race which will set it up for him and i think he will run a massive race at $34.

$500 Pinwheel Free Bet

Race Nine: The Metropolitan 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Ibicenco had absolutely no chance of winning at Caulfield last start in the Naturalism when going out to the back of the field in what was a walking tempo throughout the race. The start before that he caused an upset when hitting the line very well. Finds a much more suitable distance on Saturday and gets into the weights with next to nothing on his back. Will need a bit of luck from the barrier but i think he has a good chance of winning at $10.
Don’t Back Me: Julienas won well last start but that was a much easier task than he will find on Saturday. He has drawn wide which will likely post him wide and he is yet to place at Randwick from two starts which is a concern. At the odds i will be leaving him out.
Big Danger: Prince Cheri is a very lightly raced galloper who has been impressive winning his last two starts. He has drawn well here and gets into the weights very well. Deserving favourite who looks tough to beat.
Roughie: Mourayan won’t be wound up just yet although his first up run was very promising when hitting the line well over the mile at Flemington. He will get back in the run and will again be running on well late. He likes Randwick and i wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

$500 Ibicenco Free Bet

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Best Bet: Sacred Falls

Next Best: Pinwheel

Best Roughie: Ibicenco