5/5/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Warrnambool Cup day

The three day Warrnambool Carnival wraps up this Thursday, headlined by the Grand Annual (5500m) and Warrnambool Cup (2350m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out four metres from the 1300m-300m; True for the remainder.

Warrnambool Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Warrnambool Cup

Grand Annual Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Grand Annual Steeplechase

Opener looks a race in two. Leaning towards 4 Blandford Lad (Bet Now: $3.50). Strong debut win over the jumps two back at Pakenham before a prep run for this race on the flat at Sandown on Saturday when down the track behind Witchatar Star. Pateman rode at Pakenham and he sticks for here.

1 Brungle Bertie (Bet Now: $2.50) is the other winning chance. It was a proper staying contest his hurdle win at Pakenham and he lapped up the pressure, spanking them by a dozen and could have won by further. He’s getting better with experience and wouldn’t have looked out of place in a Galleywood IMO so he’s hard to beat.

2 Pueblo (Bet Now: $6.00) lacks the quality of some of these, but he’s a capable jumper that is in form. Toughed it out best to win at Pakenham last time out, with his flat speed coming to the fore late in the piece. He would need to improve to beat the first two, but he’s a knockout chance if they’re off their game.

I am a fan of 7 Chorizama (Bet Now: $6.50) for Symon Wilde. Not sure he beat much on debut at Ararat, but the manner in which he put them away and the way he savaged the line really impressed me. That was at 1100m, and being by Jimmy Creed out of an Elvstroem mare, the rise to 1400m should be ideal and for mien is one of the hardest to beat.

10 Henty (Bet Now: $5.50) has returned in pretty good order. Both runs back from a spell have come at Kilmore, winning the maiden last start. It wasn’t the strongest field going around and he got complete control in front, but he showed good change up speed on testing ground. He commands respect.

1 Zerelle (Bet Now: $18.00) is certainly capable with his best form. He ran over this trip in a similar race at Sandown just over two weeks back and seemingly had his chance from just off the speed, but was still a pass mark when third to Our Lone Star. Form around him reads quite well. In the mix.

12 Fiery Red (Bet Now: $3.70) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. He led D’Jumbuck on the Lakeside track last time out. Got complete control and was trucking on speed. Gave a good kick but just had no answers late for the Brian McGrath runner. Hard fit now, he’ll take beating.

6 The General (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Richard Laming trained galloper that resumes. He’s a very genuine animal that hasn’t raced since November 28 at Tralagon when racing without cover, chasing a good speed, and fought on well when second to Black Opal, who is a pretty solid 64 horse and won last week. Looked to move well in a recent Cranbourne jumpout and he likes cut in the track.

4 Ocular (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented animal for Shea Eden that resumes. He teased to win races when last in work but couldn’t quite get the job done. Has been given a good break and I liked his recent Cranbourne jumpout when stalking the speed and closing off well under no real pressure. Keen to see how he goes.

8 Love Takes Time (Bet Now: $2.70) looks to have come back in really good order. Resumed over 1400m at Pakenham where she had a suck run behind the speed. Just a matter of getting clear air and once she got it, she surged hard late to get the win and win well. Drawn out, she’ll get clear air and launch.

12 Pankhurst (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Matty Williams trained mare that resumes. This girl showed good promise when last in work, the latest on October 21 at Ballarat when solid in defeat behind Groovy Kinda Love. Won her most recent jumpout when back in the run, peeling wide and though pushed out, she won well. Interesting though the Blinkers weren’t on and they are on first time. Market will be fascinating.

16 Fiable (Bet Now: $31.00) is certainly capable. She hasn’t quite set the world on fire in two runs back from a break, the latest coming at Penola when ridden a touch warm and didn’t quite finish it off. She’s won at metro level previously and always respect the stable when they come to Victoria.

I can’t believe double figures is available for 10 Springvale Road (Bet Now: $14.00). His debut win at Geelong was absolutely enormous. He struggled to keep up early despite those in front going slow, but they pushed the button in front and he was flat footed, but the 800-400 split smashed the clock. Dropped off last 400m but he still surged hard to win and win impressively. He’ll eat up 2000m, in the right camp…stunned he is double figures.

2 King Of Pharoahs (Bet Now: $2.60) could easily blow this field away but at $2.30, gee he’s short. Visually, a very impressive return when bolting up at Bendigo fresh, but the big negative towards him is that on speed/fence in run was gold for the meeting. He was a touch flattered, but still, a nice horse heading in the right direction.

13 Almsgiver (Bet Now: $10.00) is a capable horse with his best. On the quick back up after winning at Horsham on Saturday where he found a very thin 58. Was ugly viewing but he eventually got clear and charged late to win in the last hop. Home track advantage with D Oliver, he can threaten.

6 Worsfold (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the winner. Market wanted him with confidence when resuming over the mile at Pakenham. Landed on speed and trucked. Looked the winner but couldn’t quite get the win when nabbed late. Senior jock now aboard, Blinkers back on…the intent is there to.

3 Rudhyar (Bet Now: $4.20) is a promising animal for Lindsey Smith. Resumed around a month back at Morphettville when back in the run and surged hard late, just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by My Mate Sonny in a tight finish. Home track advantage and fitter, he commands respect.

12 Feargal (Bet Now: $16.00) is trained on the track and is a very genuine animal for Jane Baker. Ran over the mile at Terang when on speed and he tried his guts out. Just couldn’t quite get there when beaten narrowly by Euro Dandy. Up to 70 grade, doubt he wins, but a first four threat.

6 Vanguard (Bet Now: $1.60) has to be the one to beat. That was an unbelievable win in the Brierly on Tuesday. He had to chase from a fair way out in running down stablemate Britannicus, with his staying prowess coming to the fore. He’ll eat up 5500m, the heavy track and it will take a good one to beat him.

7 Heberite (Bet Now: $3.80) has the Maher/Eustace polish and was kept away from Brierly to be saved for this. He ran at Pakenham last start and tried hard, but had his chance overall when third to Valac. Stable should always be respected in this race and down in the weights, he appeals big time.

10 San Remo (Bet Now: $10.00) is one for wider exotics. He too could have gone to the Brierly but has been saved for this race. Won a trial here last week and what I liked was that he was pushed out to win and take a narrow gap. He hasn’t got the class but should be strong at the end.

This race is all about 4 Tuvalu (Bet Now: $2.25). If he’s ready to go, he has panels on these. Injury plagued when last in work which followed a prep where he matched it with I’m Thunderstruck. The form around him is that of a Stakes class horse and I think he is Stakes class. Jumpout was strong, home track, well in at the weights…just all points to him.

5 Cambourne (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Price/Kent trained four year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since November 27 at Caulfield when far from disgraced in a hot run Kevin Heffernan behind Sinawann, a race that rated through the roof. Three jumpouts to get ready for his return and J Kah booked fresh, he’s ready to go.

11 Kissinger (Bet Now: $31.00) is better suited over further, but has solid wet track from and is trained here…and surely Lindsey Smith will get on the board. It’s been a frustrating Carnival for the camp, but today looks like they could dominate, and this horse has appeared to prep up nicely for a first up run. First four threat.

Looks a race in two but I am surprised that 4 Nerve Not Verve (Bet Now: $3.90) isn’t closer to Grandslam in the market. She was a surprising but strong winner of the Chairmans at Randwick, which on paper wasn’t a strong field, but the runner up was Knights Order and he bolted up in the Sydney Cup. I’d have her around $4-$4.5, not $6.5+.

2 Grandslam (Bet Now: $2.10) is a short priced elect but just not sure he’s entitled to be as short as he is. Visually, an impressive win last start at Caulfield, but I will say is that he got control in front and gave nothing else a look in, with J Kah dominating from the front. 2350m is a slight query, but he’ll land on the bunny and stable/connections want to win this race big time.

6 Maserartie Bay (Bet Now: $11.00) will be on speed and proving hard to get past. Lovely front running steer from McNeil saw him win over 2400m at Caulfield last time, getting it spot on in just holding off an in form Desert Icon. Back slightly in trip no issue, hard fit now, good racing style and in the right camp.

16 Scenic Host (Bet Now: $21.00) is a throw at the stumps in the get out. Michael O’Leary trains and this stable should always be respected when they come to Victoria. Resumed on her home track at Mpunt Gamber over 900m in what you can only assume was a barrier trial for this when back and making up ground. Swimmer who is a second up winner and 1×3 at a big price, she’ll do me.

12 Launch Pad (Bet Now: $4.80) is a handy four year old resuming for Tom Dabernig. Last run came on November 17 when attempting to lead throughout at Sandown and he gave a solid kick. Just couldn’t quite get there when third to Denero. Liked his recent jumpout and stable, first Carnival for the new stable, you’d suspect he’s ready to go.

6 Thunder Point (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Symon Wilde trained gelding that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since March 14 here when seemingly having every chance and tried hard. Just no match for Sir Davy, who is becoming a decent metro horse. Form reads well and liked a recent tick over jumpout at Terang.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Tuvalu

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Love Takes Time

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Springvale Road

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6, 7, 9, 10

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 2, 4

Leg Four: 6, 7, 12, 13, 16

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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