Pakenham will host their biggest meeting on Saturday where it is Pakenham Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Pakenham Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Pakenham Cup
Race 1. (12:50) John Duff & Co (bm70) 1000m
Like 3 Nantucket (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) here. Mark Kavanagh trained three year old that showed good promise in his first prep hence why he started long odds on when resuming in a Bendigo Maiden. Looked in trouble on the turn but he picked up when it mattered and in the end, it was class that got him home. He’ll come on from that and looks hard to beat here.
I think the 1000m will suit 6 Written Miss (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS) against an even bunch of three year olds. Debuted at the trip at Ballarat where she was well backed at a price and the bets were landed with a strong on speed performance, running good time as well. Think she lands near the front here and will prove hard to get past.
2 Divine Caprice (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) looks suited here for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley where she was back near last in the run and did make up ground late behind a potential Stakes class horse in Vowmaster. Looks better suited in this kind of race and I think the bigger track will help her cause as well.
Race 2. (13:25) Fulmen Park (bm78) 1000m
We see it so often that Jamie Kah can get these quirky gallopers to find their best and banking on that theory with 8 Meteorite (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS). Might be at the end of the prep, but Jamie Kah is the form rider in the business and her soft hands and balance could bring out the best in this gelding, who was comfortably held by Grandview Avenue last time out, but of course we saw that horse win the Carlyon last Saturday. Form reads well, has the speed to lead…hard to beat.
Back to 1000m I find interesting with 4 Final Man (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). Both runs back from a break have come over 1100m, the latest being during Cup Week where he was warming to the task at the end behind Leiter. Better suited at 1200m+ I feel, but he has got improvement to come and his best is clearly good enough.
3 Elite Legacy (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a Lope De Vega gelding for Tony Noonan that resumes. Hasn’t raced since September 9 when down the track and at the end of a successful but busy prep behind Mister Mogul, a 1000m specialist. Just one quiet 700m jumpout to get ready, but a drop of rain would really help his chances.
Race 3. (14:00) Iron Jack Aust. Lagers (bm78) 2000m
I’m keen on 13 Doroza (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) running well here. He was a real eye catcher two back on Stakes Day at Flemington behind Barade before going to Kilmore where he was wide throughout and had to make a sustained run from the back, but on the line, he was strongest and impressive. If he can reproduce that here, he’s a winning threat.
9 Starcaster (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) should appreciate the rise to 2000m for the Freedman camp. He was a good run from the back against the pattern at Ballarat a fortnight ago behind Skiddaw in a real on pace dominated affair. He’s a stayer, so the fact he ran so well over the mile last time bodes well for the campaign. Hard to beat.
1 Prince Ziggy (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) could be a total blowout here. Wide no cover two back in the Hamilton Cup so forget he went around there. Then came back to the mile of the Donald Cup and was solid enough late behind Vungers, who has won again since. Gets Craig Williams aboard, has gate one to use and gets back up in trip.
Race 4. (14:35) Superior Food Services (bm70) 1600m
10 Not Mine (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is teasing to win one and I’ll be in his corner again. Was on him when he raced last Wednesday at Sandown. Market liked him as well at a price but it was a race dominated by those on speed. Given he was back in the ruck, he had no chance, but loved the way he closed off when fourth. He’s going well I reckon and can measure up to these.
13 Stuchbree Stamp (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a progressive type. Unbeaten in two career outings for Peter Moody, the latest win coming at the Valley where he led from the wide gate and was much too good for them. Chief Altony, the eye catching runner up, has won since, so the form has been ticked off and on his home track, expecting a bold showing.
I’m going to have a throw at the stumps in including 11 Royal Order (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). I’d be very forgiving of his run on Ballarat Cup Day behind Skiddaw. Was wide no cover for the trip and couldn’t come on after that early burn when down the track. Gets a better barrier this time around and I hope the stable do keep him and train him to be a miler because the 1400m-1800m range is his go.
Race 5. (15:15) Schweppes David Bourke Mem.hcp 1600m
Looks a perfect race for 8 Tavidance (Bet Now: $2.50). Price/Kent trained gelding that comes through the Kilmore Cup where he was tardy away and that pretty much sealed his fate. From that point on, it was a nightmare, and really, should have won. The forecast for rain on Saturday is perfect for him because he saves his best for wet tracks.
10 Walking Flying (Bet Now: $10.00) is suited up to the mile for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Resumed over 1400m at Ballarat two weeks ago where the race shape and track pattern was clearly not in her corner but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind the in form Titan Blinders. Fitter, up to the mile, should prove hard to beat.
5 Asterius (Bet Now: $31.00) has a touch of class about him and I think he can be a big improver here at odds. Resumed in the greys race on Oaks Day at Flemington where he was back in the run and failed to come on behind Berdibek, but I will say he only had one soft trial to get ready for that. Has a great second up record and can bounce back here.
Race 6. (15:55) Hanson Hcp 1200m
I give 5 Sirius Suspect (Bet Now: $3.50) a serious chance here. He resumed down the straight on Cup Day and led, but not at an overly strong gallop, and stuck on well when third to Exhilarates. He races best when allowed to run at a good clip, so think if that can eventuate here, he’ll take some catching with improvement to come.
8 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $4.40) has returned in very good order for Shane Fliedner. Resumed with an electric win at Bendigo on their Cup Day before going to Ballarat two weeks ago where he surged hard late from just off the speed and missed out on the win when a narrow second to Excess Funds. Third up now, hard fit and in form, a leading chance.
2 Tavisan (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Price/Kent trained sprinter that should take good improvement off his resumption three weeks ago in the Doveton at Sandown. Was near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat when a close up third to Shamino. Takes good improvement from that, should be near the front and hard to beat.
Race 7. (16:35) Pakenham Cup 2500m
Going each way with 3 Haky (Bet Now: $16.00). Has been kept on ice, having not raced for four weeks since finishing down the track in the Queen Elizabeth behind True Self, but I think was ridden a touch warm whereas the start prior he was ridden cold and found the line strongly in the Bendigo Cup. Bit of give in the track won’t hurt his chances and do like Jamie Kah sticking.
4 Attorney (Bet Now: $4.40) is going super for Matty Smith. Was four weeks between runs when contesting the Zipping Classic at Sandown where he was far from disgraced in defeat at WFA when fourth to Sound in a good effort. Much better suited here and he does have class on his side compared to most of these.
5 Creedence (Bet Now: $6.50) should run well. Matt Cumani trained stayer that also comes through the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington where he was ridden positively from the gate and loomed to win, but failed to see the trip out at that level. Looks better suited in this kind of race, gets gate one and Craig Williams has a good record on him.
Race 8. (17:15) Vobis Gold Bullion 1400m
5 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $2.50) looks hard to beat for the Corstens team. Narrow second down the straight on Cup Day before going to the Magic Millions 3YO & 4YO race where he was backed as if unbeatable. Was just back to 1100m from 1200m and he didn’t have the zip in the legs to wear down Sisstar. Going super and back up to 1400m, hard to beat.
1 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $8.50) is a beauty for Danny O’Brien that has a fabulous record in these VOBIS races as an older horse, winning four of five and the other run, he was beaten narrowly by So Si Bon. Found the 1500m at Stakes level a bit much last time at Sandown but back to 1400m in this kind of race, very hard to beat.
2 Amadeus (Bet Now: $16.00) has run well in the past two editions of this race and I’m very interested to see if he can run well in the race for a third time. Resumed on Kyneton Cup Day and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Murillo. Has a great record in the race and stable have kept him on ice with this in mind.
Race 9. (17:50) Cliffo's Nose Operation (bm78) 1400m
With 2 Arctic Shock (Bet Now: $11.00) in the get out. Team Meagher trained mare that resumed over 1200m at Ballarat, but it was pretty much a barrier trial for her. Got back off the speed and didn’t get a chance to build momentum at any stage. The tick for that race is that they came home in the best L400m and L200m of the meeting, so that looks a strong form reference.
Looks an ideal race for the Grahame Begg trained mare 10 Hasstobegood (Bet Now: $4.80). Beat all bar Cordilla two back on Cranbourne Cup Day before going to the Summoned at Sandown where she led and tried hard. Just lacked the class of some of the better mares, finishing down the track behind Missile Mantra. Finds the right race now. Keen to see how she goes.
Fitter and up to 1400m, I’m giving respect to the John Sadler trained mare 11 Score (Bet Now: $6.50). Resumed over 1200m at Ballarat where she actually did a really good job against the track pattern, working home strongly from the back when fourth to impressive winner Snapdancer. Is a second up winner and her 1400m form just reads so well for this.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Tavidance
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 13 Doroza
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 2 Arctic Shock
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 8, 9, 14
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Four: 2, 10, 11, 15
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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